Table for 12 Week 12: 2 national title threats emerge on SEC’s separation Saturday

If Greg Sankey could have it his way, every Saturday would be about the SEC, but Week 12 certainly was. Texas A&M’s South Carolina scare stole the spotlight from Notre Dame’s blowout win over Pitt, and then the conference followed that up with back-to-back top 12 matchups featuring four of the league’s six highest-ranked teams. 

For most of the year, the SEC has appeared to be flat at the top, loaded with College Football Playoff contenders, but lacking a true national championship threat. Well, after “separation Saturday,” it’s starting to look like the Aggies and the Bulldogs are the class of the conference and worthy of Ohio State and Indiana’s attention, while Alabama and Ole Miss have too many flaws to differentiate themselves from Oklahoma, Texas, and maybe even Vanderbilt. 

The CFP rankings were fairly stagnant from the committee’s first reveal to its second, but this Tuesday, with a new head of the committee in place, could bring a major reshuffling of the chairs at the table of college football’s elite. 

First Course

1. Worth every penny (No. 3 Texas A&M 31 South Carolina 30)

Sometimes you pick the most expensive thing on the menu, and when you do, you just hope to get what you pay for. Well, Texas A&M did that on Saturday, announcing a new contract extension with Mike Elko to make him one of the five highest-paid head coaches in college football, and he immediately proved to be worth every penny. 

Elko’s team came out completely flat at home against unranked South Carolina. LaNorris Sellers threw it all over their defense for 204 yards and two touchdowns, and the Aggies’ first half was littered with mistakes. It started with a missed field goal, then Marcel Reed had a fumble returned for a touchdown before Randy Bond missed another kick and Reed threw two interceptions, including one in the South Carolina end zone. 

It was the perfect recipe for a major upset. A&M lost 10.61 EPA on special teams, 8.9 points according to GameOnPaper’s turnover luck metric, scored on just three of its six red zone trips, and South Carolina reached a win probability over 90 percent, three separate times. Yet, Elko’s team just never went away, and after trailing 30-3 at halftime, scored 28 unanswered to pull off the biggest comeback in program history, and the only 27+ point comeback in SEC play since 2004. 

With Le’Veon Moss out and Rueben Owens lost to a second-half injury, the Aggies managed just 2.2 yards per rush, but Reed settled the offense and torched South Carolina’s secondary for 439 yards through the air. It’s impressive that the unit didn’t panic, and a reflection of the coaching staff, but Elko’s side of the ball is where his real value shone through.

After allowing 312 yards (8.2 yards per play) before the intermission, A&M held South Carolina to 76 total yards (2.9 yards per play), 63 passing, and sacked Sellers four times. 

Elko ramped up the pressure, rushing Cashius Howell, his best edge rusher, from all over the field, including a crucial pressure through the A-gap. He sent defensive backs from the outside on crucial downs or blitzed safeties from depth to confuse Sellers and make him hold onto the ball. Despite Sellers' size and athleticism, he came into the game with a 25.4 percent pressure-to-sack rate, partially a result of his 3.07 average time to throw against the blitz. 

On Saturday, Sellers got the ball out quickly against the blitz, averaging 2.55 seconds to throw, but he completed just five of his 12 attempts for 45 yards and an interception. The best third-down defense in the country held South Carolina to 1-for-7 on third down in the second half. 

Blitzing isn’t just about bringing extra bodies. It’s about manipulating the quarterback, to speed him up, or in the case of a scrambler like Sellers, limit his escape hatches. Just look at the fourth-and-16 that sealed it. A&M brings overload pressure from Sellers’ backside with a blitzing defensive back, then Elko drops Howell to spy Sellers, and the QB runs right into the trap. 

I don’t care that A&M gave up the 30 points in the first half. Elko is my favorite defensive play-caller in the country, and with what his unit did in the second half, it’s impossible not to consider the Aggies a legit national championship contender. 

Second Course

2. Regression comes for everyone (No. 11 Oklahoma 23 No. 4 Alabama 21)

How do you lose a football game when you gain 406 yards to your opponent’s 212? You turn the ball over three times and don’t force one all night. A +10 turnover margin for the season was helping to buoy Alabama throughout its eight-game win streak, but in Week 12, regression hit the Crimson Tide in a big way. 

Ty Simpson entered the week with 21 touchdowns to just one interception, which is a major piece of his Heisman Trophy candidacy, which likely died with the loss. However, despite having just one interception, he had the 11th-highest turnover-worthy play rate (5.2 percent) against the blitz this season. Yes, five fumbles factor into that, but Simpson has certainly gotten away with a few risky throws this season. The Sooners made him pay for them. 

Simpson had two turnovers, a pick-six, and a fumble, which both led to points. Oklahoma scored 17 of its 23 points off turnovers, including its game-winning fourth-quarter field goal. To make matters worse for the Tide, Oklahoma recovered both of its fumbles, finishing the game with no turnovers but 1.7 expected turnovers to Alabama’s 1.9. 

It’s not that Simpson is a reckless quarterback, more that he’s fearless. Simpson attacks the middle of the field as aggressively as any QB in the country, and with his elite velocity, he’s as willing as anyone to throw into tight windows. His 87-yard pick-six proved that Venables knew that. 

Simpson actually handled the blitz well here. He got to his hot route and threw into the void left by the blitzing linebackers on the right side. It’s exactly what you’re supposed to do, and as an anticipation thrower, he lets it fly. But watch the safety, Robert Spears-Jennings, and how he immediately triggers downhill to disrupt Isaiah Horton’s route. That’s how you can play when you know that the opposing quarterback won’t have time in the pocket. 

Alabama can’t run you out of the blitz, so Venables cooked up different pressure looks all day, blitzing Simpson on 62.5 percent of his dropbacks, resulting in all four of his sacks and both of his turnovers. The pick-six also made Simpson a bit more gun-shy, and just like the Florida State loss, he began to hold onto the ball, stopped trusting his eyes, and it led to four sacks, the most he’s taken since that Week 1 loss. 

There aren’t many defensive minds like Venables, who can exploit Alabama’s one-dimensional offense, but there will be in the College Football Playoff, and that might doom the Crimson Tide in December. 

Third Course

3. Georgia’s D-line is coming to life (No. 5 Georgia 35 No. 10 Texas 10)

Kirby Smart’s Georgia Bulldogs, which have had six defensive linemen drafted in the first round of the NFL draft since 2022 and recorded 13 sacks in two games against Texas last season, came into Week 12 with 11 sacks all season. Smart’s defense has the worst pressure rate of his tenure in Athens, and ranked 128th in the country in sack percentage before they clashed with Arch Manning and the Longhorns. 

However, the pass rush seems to be rounding into form. Georgia sacked Manning three times between the hedges on Saturday night and recorded seven tackles for loss. If that's more than just a product of Texas’s leaky offensive line, which is allowing the 11th-highest pressure rate in the country, then Georgia will be terrifying in the college football playoff. 

Without elite edge rushers like Mykel Williams and Jalon Walker, who terrorized Texas a season ago, Smart and Glenn Schumann have been forced to up their blitz rate relative to previous seasons, but against the Longhorns, they primarily got pressure using stunts with their four-man rush, which are easier to run when you trust that you can stop the run. And stop the run they did. 

Texas managed -0.57 EPA/rush, a 1st percentile performance, its fifth game with a negative EPA/rush this season, and that was without Georgia star linebacker CJ Allen on the field for much of the game. Without the threat of a rushing attack, Georgia got creative in its pass-rush to cover up its biggest weakness. That’s worth keeping an eye on as the playoffs approach because Texas, Alabama, Oklahoma, and even Ohio State have struggled to run the ball this season. 

Reservations: The season isn’t over yet, but these teams have all but locked up a spot in the CFP

4. Never doubt Notre Dame (No. 9 Notre Dame 35 No. 22 Pitt 15)

Notre Dame started the season 0-2, falling to Miami and Texas A&M, and yet the Fighting Irish never dropped out of the AP Top 25. AP voters and the College Football Playoff committee are drawn to those gold helmets like a moth to a flame. 

Now that Marcus Freeman’s team has ripped off eight straight wins with a drubbing of No. 22 Pitt at Acrisure Stadium on Saturday, they’ve all but locked up a spot in the CFP. The Irish will be huge favorites in their final two games of the year against Syracuse and Stanford. I’ll take my chances and say that Notre Dame is in. 

So, how did they get there? Well, for starters, Pitt may have gotten too much credit for beating Boston College, Florida State, Syracuse, NC State, and Stanford. That’s not exactly a gauntlet that true freshman QB Mason Heintschel had to run through his first five starts. The jump in competition from that stretch of opponents to Notre Dame probably felt bigger than the jump the 18-year-old made from high school to the ACC. 

Chris Ash’s defense, which struggled early in the season, got back to the identity it had a year ago under Todd Golden. The Irish trusted their talented corners to hold up in press man and dared Heintschel to make quick decisions and tight window throws, and he couldn’t. While averaging nearly 3.5 seconds per dropback, the young QB, who entered the week 16th in the country in EPA/dropback at 0.39, averaged -0.90 EPA/dropback with four sacks and a first-quarter pick-six that blew the game wide open. 

Reservations: Week 9- Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Indiana Week 10- Ohio State Week 11- Alabama, Georgia

Head of the table: The best individual performance earns the seat at the head of the table

5. Ole Miss RB, Kewan Lacy (No. 7 Ole Miss 34 Florida 24)

It’s hard to pinpoint which game Lane Kiffin specifically blew his team’s chance to make the College Football Playoff, because the Kentucky loss was the worst, but the Florida loss was the nail in the coffin. Either way, Kiffin avenged the latter on Saturday, because he has the one thing his offense was missing a season ago. 

Florida’s defensive identity hasn’t changed. The Gators live in two-high, attempt to limit explosive plays, and give you opportunities to run into light boxes. In 2024, with Quinshon Judkins off at Ohio State, Kiffin didn’t have the bellcow back to lean, so Jaxson Dart led the Rebels on the ground, and with such a heavy burden on his shoulders, he threw two late interceptions. 

So, a year after letting Judkins walk out the door, Kiffin went and got himself the running back he was missing, bringing Kewan Lacy from Missouri to Mississippi, and that decision has paid off. On Saturday, Lacy ran for 224 yards and three touchdowns on 31 carries, breaking the Ole Miss single-season rushing touchdown record in the process. 

He did it with 14 missed tackles forced, the most by an SEC running back in a single game this season, and it’s the second time he’s done that this season. According to PFF, an SEC running back aside from Lacy has not forced 14 or more missed tackles since South Carolina’s Rocket Sanders in Week 1 of 2024 against Old Dominion—the first to do it against an SEC opponent since Judkins in the 2023 Egg Bowl. 

Appetizers: A little something to chew on from the week that was in college football

6. The Jabrill Peppers plan (No. 6 Texas Tech 48 UCF 9)

Should there be more to winning the Heisman Trophy than being the best player in college football? No. But there certainly is. It takes a well-considered campaign for attention, especially for a defensive player, and no team was more shameless about that than the 2016 Michigan Wolverines with Jabrill Peppers. 

Peppers was a star who ultimately finished fifth in Heisman voting, and a huge aspect of his case was 12 carries for 167 yards and three touchdowns. He wasn’t a real two-way player like Travis Hunter, but Michigan could promote him that way, and that was what mattered to make him a Heisman finalist. 

Texas Tech linebacker Jacob Rodriguez has a better case than Peppers ever did, with seven forced fumbles and four interceptions after he picked off UCF’s Tayven Jackson in Week 12. And now, Joey McGuire and the Red Raiders are pulling from the 2016 Michigan playbook, giving Rodriguez a wildcat snap on the goalline to run in his first offensive touchdown of his career. 

Should a two-yard touchdown have any bearing on anyone's assessment of Rodriguez and whether or not he’s the best player in college football? No. Will it? I wouldn’t be surprised. 

7. Christmas came early for Mendoza (No. 2 Indiana 31 Wisconsin 7)

At this point, we might just be making up reasons to doubt Indiana when there aren’t any, but it feels reasonable to question the depth of a team that was conjured out of thin air over just two seasons, rather than stacking elite recruiting classes like most of the other national championship contenders. 

Well, that depth has been tested over the last two weeks with Fernando Mendoza’s top target, Elijah Sarratt, out nursing an injury. And while Omar Cooper Jr. was the hero a week ago in Happy Valley, it’s clear that sophomore wide receiver Charlie Becker, who had seven catches for his career before Week 11, is Mendoza’s new favorite toy. 

Through the past two weeks, with Sarratt sidelined, Becker has caught 12 passes for 126 yards and a touchdown with four contested catches on four contested catch opportunities. He’s a big-time ball winner and a quarterback’s best friend, currently ranking sixth among all receivers in receiving success rate at 76.2 percent and No. 4 in EPA/target at 1.23. 

Kid’s menu: The CFP is a 12-team reservation that needs one kid’s menu for the Group of Six team (And maybe another for the ACC)

You read that right, the ACC has been relegated to ordering off the kids’ menu. No, there’s no chance that the league misses out on the CFP for a second Group of Six champ, Duke’s loss to Virginia in Week 12, and the American Conference’s implosion took care of that, but the league is still clearly a notch below the rest of the Power 4. 

8. Chandler Morris matter (No. 19 Virginia 34 Duke 17)

Virginia has been one of the luckiest teams in the country this season, so there was something satisfying about seeing that catch up with them in last week’s loss to Wake Forest. However, this week, I think I owe the Wahoos a thank-you note for handing Duke its second ACC loss. 

With just one loss in conference play, a four-loss Duke team was technically still alive for the conference title and a spot in the CFP. That is what opened the door to the two Group of Six bid theory last week, and it’s nice to put that one to bed. It was also nice to see Chandler Morris back on the field after the UVA QB missed the second half of Week 11.  

Lost in my frustration over Virginia’s turnover luck and fortunate breaks this season has been Morris’s remarkable year. A true college football journeyman, the 24-year-old senior carved Duke’s defense for 316 yards, with 156 of those coming on intermediate throws from 10-19 yards downfield. He’s been one of the best intermediate throwers in the country this season, averaging 11.2 yards per attempt on those throws (33rd nationally) with 1,001 total yards to that part of the field (4th). 

Despite its 6-1 record in ACC play, Virginia doesn’t control its own destiny for the ACC Title Game. If the ‘Hoos beat Virginia Tech in the Commonwealth Clash in two weeks, they still need SMU and Pitt to both lose one of their final two games. 

9. Good thing Brent has a Key (No. 16 Georgia Tech 36 Boston College 24)

Because his team keeps needing to escape. Despite posting a 59 percent offensive success rate in Chestnut Hill, Georgia Tech needed a 13-play, 68-yard field goal drive to win the game on a 23-yard kick from Aiden Birr to complete a double-digit second-half comeback. Why? Well, because the defense is broken.

The Yellow Jackets rank 123rd in adjusted defensive EPA/play. Vanderbilt is the only other team ranked outside the top 70 that is still realistically alive for the CFP. That’s problematic, especially when that defense is trending in the wrong direction, giving up 1,120 yards across Georgia Tech’s last two games. Saturday night, those 537 yards were allowed to the 109th-ranked offense by EPA/play.  

The issues start up front with the pass rush, and, unlike their in-state rivals, their problems up front are only getting worse. 

10. Carson Beck’s recipe for success (No. 15 Miami 41 NC State 7)

Is Carson Beck a good quarterback? That’s become a difficult question to answer, but I think I’ve come to a definitive conclusion: Yes, but only against bad defenses. Or, if you’re more of a glass-half-empty type: No, he only beats up bad defenses. 

Either way, there’s an alarming trend with Beck’s play this season, which you’ve probably been able to intuit after watching him for three years; he only beats up bad defenses. After Beck’s 21-for-27 for 291 yards and three touchdowns against NC State, the 125th-ranked defense by EPA/pass this season, I’ve split his numbers through his 10 games with the Hurricanes. 

For this chart, “good” is a fairly relative term because it’s been an easy slate of pass defenses for Beck in 2025. A “good” defense, by this definition, is a pass defense inside the top 50 by EPA/pass, which for Miami includes Notre Dame, Louisville, and SMU. 

Virginia Tech, Miami’s Week 13 opponent, ranks 133rd, and Pitt, its Week 14 foe, ranks 56th. 

11. 110-10 would’ve been better (No. 9 Notre Dame 35 No. 22 Pitt 15)

This week, Pat Narduzzi was asked if Pitt’s Week 12 matchup with No. 9 Notre Dame, with College Gameday descending on the North Shore of Pittsburgh, was a must-win. He responded how only Pat Narduzzi would: “Absolutely not. It's not an ACC game, glad you brought that up," he said. "I'd gladly get beat 103 … or 110-10 in that game. They can put 100 up on us as long as we win the next two.” 

He’s not wrong; he just didn’t have to say it. But what you have to appreciate about Narduzzi is how completely he abandoned this sentiment on gameday. He called a timeout with five seconds left, down 37-9, to set up a 21-yard touchdown pass by his now backup QB Eli Holstein in hopes of manipulating the final score to mask how thoroughly outmatched his team was for four quarters. 110-10 might’ve been less embarrassing than that meaningless touchdown. 

Pitt now closes the season at Georgia Tech and home to Miami. We can’t officially eliminate the Panthers just yet, but let’s hope they bow out mercifully because this team would get steamrolled in the CFP and waste everyone’s time. Just to get to the ACC Title Game, Pitt needs to win out, needs SMU to lose to either Louisville or Cal, and Virginia to beat Virginia Tech, or win out with SMU also winning out and Virginia Tech losing to Virginia. 

12. American implosion (Navy 41 No. 24 USF 38)

The committee didn’t rank a Group of Six team in the first week of the College Football Playoff rankings, and it appears that was the right decision. USF snuck in this week at No. 24, and responded by allowing 524 yards to Navy and 338 yards on the ground. 

If you think back to Week 1, USF’s defense played so well against Boise State’s run-heavy attack because Todd Orlando’s second-level defenders triggered downhill immediately and had the speed to penetrate and create negative plays. That identity worked against the Bulls in their two losses to option-heavy rushing attacks because they overpursued and overcommitted. Beyond just the triple-option rushing success, Navy quarterback Blake Horvath averaged 20.0 yards per attempt off play-action. 

Now, Navy leads the conference at 6-1, and with Memphis’s back-to-back losses, North Texas, which USF throttled midseason, is now the favorite to win the conference and has the highest probability of making the CFP from the American, according to ESPN. James Madison, however, has the highest probability of making the CFP of all G6 teams. 

It’s clear that the American is the best Group of Six conference in the country this season, but the competitive nature of the league is working against it and opening the door for JMU to walk right through as a one-loss Sun Belt Champion. With USF dropping, it will be interesting to see which G6 team is ranked the highest on Tuesday night, and if it's the Dukes off a 58-10 win over App State on Saturday.