Table for 12 Week 13: The ACC Title Race is finally becoming clear

Before we jump into the games that mattered, I would like to take a moment to recognize the Southeastern Conference. The teams are so great and the games are so tough that we should be thankful that any of the teams even took the field at all in Week 13. If you ask me, the SEC deserves more pointless exhibitions against FCS opponents that completely zap the energy out of what should be one of the most consequential weeks of college football all year. 

How could Alabama possibly be expected to schedule anyone other than Eastern Illinois at this point in the season, and what would Georgia and Texas A&M do if they couldn’t play Charlotte and Samford this Saturday? They would hardly survive the season. 

Well, at least the league did give us a few results of significance in the College Football Playoff race, and without many of the best teams in the country in action or playing a Power 4 opponent, it cleared the way for the Big Ten to decide its second at-large team and the ACC’s title race to finally sort itself out. 

After Saturday, by my estimation anyway, we’re heading into Week 14 with 23 teams still alive for the CFP: Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, Georgia, Texas Tech, Ole Miss, Oregon, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Alabama, BYU, Utah, Miami, Vanderbilt, Texas (barely), Michigan (technically), Virginia, Pitt, SMU, Tulane, Navy, North Texas, and James Madison. 

First Course

1. The recipe exists, but can anyone cook it? (No. 8 Oklahoma 17 No. 22 Missouri 6)

Oklahoma has a strong argument as the best defense in college football. By success rate, the Sooners are No. 1. However, Brent Venables’ opportunistic unit relies heavily on blitzes, stunts, and coverage disguises to cause splash plays with sacks and turnovers. However, even as the turnovers carried Oklahoma to a win against Alabama last week, the Sooners allowed over 400 yards, the third time they have allowed over 400 yards in SEC play. 

All three of those performances, two of them Oklahoma wins, featured quarterbacks who thrive as downfield passers. Missouri, even with Beau Pribula returning from his dislocated ankle, doesn’t fit that mold. 

With Missouri’s elite rushing attack, led by the nation’s leading rusher, Ahmad Hardy, who was coming off a 300-yard game against Mississippi State in Week 12, Venables had to lay off the stunts and games up front, for fear of springing Hardy in Missouri’s outside zone running game, which requires serious discipline to defend. 

That’s the thing, if you can run on Oklahoma, you theoretically should be able to keep Venables out of his most exotic blitz looks, and the Tigers did that in the first quarter, holding the ball for nearly 12 minutes of the opening frame, and gaining 78 yards to Oklahoma -7. Then, all you have to do is punch it in against a defense allowing a touchdown on just 45 percent of opponents’ red zone trips this season (ninth lowest in the country). 

Missouri made three trips to the red zone in the first half and came away with just six points. That bought John Mateer and the Oklahoma offense enough time to hit an explosive play, take the lead, and force Missouri to play from behind. And you don’t want to face a Brent Venables defense in a negative game script. 

With the defense free to get into its blitz looks, return to its stunts up front, and shoot gaps against stretch runs, Oklahoma held Missouri to 16 yards in the third quarter. The Sooners finished with four sacks and eight tackles for loss. They also only allowed a three percent explosive play rate despite often playing everyone within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, maybe more a product of Missouri’s deficiencies than anything else. 

It’s not necessarily in Ben Arbuckle and John Mateer’s collective DNA to play conservative, complementary football, but with a championship-caliber defense, that gives the Sooners the best chance of winning a title. Can they do it for four straight games in the CFP? I wouldn’t bet on it. 

Second Course

2. No WRs, No problems for Will Stein (No. 7 Oregon 42 No. 15 USC 27)

You’d be hard-pressed to find another spread offense that utilizes more tight ends and running backs than Oregon in 2025. The Ducks lost Evan Stewart in the summer, and were without Dakorien Moore and Gary Bryant Jr. in Week 13, but that wasn’t a problem for offensive coordinator Will Stein. 

Some of Oregon’s success with its 12 and 21 personnel looks this week had to do with USC’s injuries in the secondary, missing starting safeties Bishop Fitzgerald and Kamari Ramsey, but Stein has been using them all season. They’ve been his college football equivalent of Sean McVay’s 13 personnel takeover in the NFL, and the proliferation of jumbo personnel with six offensive linemen on Sundays. 

While the personnel looks aren’t quite as heavy as the ones being used at the next level, they have a similar effect. Defenses have a choice to make: get big and risk letting those athletic tight ends hit you over the top for explosive passes, or stay light and risk giving up chunks in the run game. 

USC opted for, or maybe had no other choice but to stay small. Even with backup safeties in the game, the Trojans held Oregon to a three percent explosive pass rate. Yet, with Oregon down to its fifth offensive tackle at one point in the game, Oregon still dominated in the trenches, with a 51 percent rushing success rate and 0.16 EPA/carry. 

A drive after Jordon Davison put Oregon on the board with a rushing score, Oregon got into a 21-personnel look in the red zone. USC countered with a nine-man box and left backup safety Christian Pierce one-on-one with Kenyon Sadiq, the most dynamic tight end in the country. You can probably guess how that went for Pierce. 

Later, on the cusp of the red zone, Oregon created more chaos over the middle of the field, this time with 12 personnel, and a bit of pre-snap motion, forcing difficult decisions for linebackers and safeties who aren’t used to playing together. This time, it took a better throw and catch from Dante Moore and Sadiq, but the result was the same. 

Since Dakorien Moore, Oregon’s top WR, has been out, the Ducks’ offense has managed a 50 percent, 48 percent, and 51 percent success rate. In the last two games since Sadiq has been back healthy, he has racked up 14 catches for 168 yards and three touchdowns. 

With the rise of simulated pressures and coverage disguises by the best defenses in football, at any level, heavy personnel groupings are the best way for offenses to take back control and dictate to the defense, rather than the other way around. Stein is doing it as much and as well as anyone in the country, and it’s just another reason that he should be in the mix for a Power 4 head coaching job as the dominoes begin to fall this offseason. 

Third Course

3. Utah survived its fatal flaw (No. 12 Utah 51 Kansas State 47)

So much has changed in college football, but for a few hours in Salt Lake City, the Big 12 was still the Big 12. It was an old-school shootout, but not the type you would expect with a Kyle Whittingham-coached team involved. Kansas State did almost all of its damage on the ground, though maybe that shouldn’t have been a surprise. 

Of Kansas State’s 574 yards, 472 of them came on the ground, and 294 of them came from running back Joe Jackson, who managed that absurd total with just 24 carries. It runs counter to the identity of Whittingham’s program, but the Utah defense came into the week ranking 121st in EPA/rush, with a 10.5 percent explosive rush rate allowed. That’s the highest in the Big 12, and nearly cost the Utes their outside shot at an at-large bid into the College Football Playoff. 

Historically, Whittingham and defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley have fared well against dual-threat quarterbacks like Avery Johnson, and it wasn’t necessarily Johnson’s involvement in the run game that allowed Kansas State to have so much success. Johnson got yardage on scrambles and in the read-option game, but Kansas State also ran the ball with straight hand-offs, the Wildcats ran the ball with zone runs, gap scheme runs, and from spread formations, heavy sets, and into light boxes, and into stacked boxes. You could write a Dr. Seuss book about all the ways K-State ran the football on Saturday. 

So what are the issues that allowed a 21 percent explosive run rate and a team to put up 47 points despite averaging under four yards per dropback? Missed tackles, lack of discipline in run fits, and a lack of team speed in the second level. Everything you’d think, and all the same issues that have been prevalent all year for Utah. Yet, the Utes won the football game. 

It took Devon Dampier heroics and an equally leaky K-State defense for it to happen, but Utah is still alive. Yet, with this many issues on the defensive side of the ball, and star sophomore pass-rusher John Henry Daley suffering a leg injury that he was unable to return from on Saturday, this team wouldn’t have much of a shot in the first round of the CFP. 

Check Please!: When it’s clear there won’t be a seat for you at the CFP table, it’s time to pay your check and go

4. Always Causing Chaos (Pitt 42 No. 16 Georgia Tech 28)

What a fitting way for Georgia Tech’s ACC Title hopes to fade away, by allowing a 56-yard touchdown run with under three minutes left in the fourth quarter to extend the deficit to 14 points. It was the fourth straight game allowing 150 or more yards on the ground, and with two interceptions, Haynes King couldn’t do nearly enough to bail his defense out yet again. 

Pitt’s defense was a uniquely terrible matchup for King and offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner because of its experienced linebackers and heavy reliance on zone coverage. Pitt constantly had eyes on King; its second-level defenders weren’t followed by the constant play-action and backfield eye-candy, and for all his success this season, King is still limited as a straight dropback passer. 

The Georgia Tech offense is constantly confusing its opponents. Pat Narduzzi had the rare defense that could fool Haynes King. Despite averaging 9.17 yards per dropback, King finished with -0.22 EPA/dropback, largely influenced by his 100-yard pick-six. Still, it's one of the larger discrepancies you’ll see in a single game. 

Now, Georgia Tech is gone from the ACC Title race. Pitt, SMU, and Virginia are the only three teams still alive for the championship game. So, while I’m glad to get a fraudulent Georgia Tech team out of the mix, a bad ACC team is going to make the CFP no matter what because SMU and Duke’s wins in Week 13 eliminated Miami’s long-shot scenario to grab a spot in Charlotte. 

Head of the table: The best individual performance earns the seat at the head of the table

5. Vanderbilt QB, Diego Pavia (No. 14 Vanderbilt 45 Kentucky 17)

Diego Pavia has faded from the Heisman Trophy conversation. While he wouldn’t have a Heisman moment against a putrid Kentucky team, a monster statistical performance could launch him back into the mix, and to his credit, that’s exactly what he had on Saturday in Nashville. 

While his 532 total yards and six total touchdowns were a product of blatant stat-padding, the evolution of the Vanderbilt offense and his role in it have been interesting this season. In many ways, he’s become point guard Pavia, expertly operating a more spread attack since Vanderbilt’s slow-developing play-action and option-heavy passing attack began to get stymied by the most athletic defenses in the SEC. 

Rather than displacing linebackers with misdirection and making underneath throws on half-field reads to create yards after the catch, he’s reading out a five-verts downfield pattern from an empty set and ripping a ball 40 yards up the seam between two defenders. That’s not a club we knew he had in his bag, and it’s one he might need if there’s enough chaos for Vanderbilt to somehow find its way into the CFP. 

Appetizers: A little something to chew on from the week that was in college football

6. Notre Damn (No. 9 Notre Dame 70 Syracuse 7)

In 1905, Henry McGlew’s Notre Dame Fighting Irish recorded a 142-0 win over the American College of Medicine and Surgery of Chicago. Aside from that game, Saturday’s 70-7 win over Syracuse is the biggest in program history. Marcus Freeman’s team hung those 70 points despite running just 39 offensive plays and recording 18 minutes and 11 seconds of possession. 

When the Notre Dame offense finally took the field with 6:59 remaining in the first quarter, they did so with a 21-0 lead thanks to two pick-sixes and a punt return touchdown. Jeremiyah Love made his own Notre Dame history on Senior Day, tying the single-season program record with 20 total touchdowns, and he did it with eight carries for 171 yards and three touchdowns. 

By Collegefootballdata’s predicted points added metric, it was Notre Dame’s most efficient per-play offense performance in their database, which stretches back to 2001, and the most efficient defensive performance since a Week 9 win over Pitt in 2023. 

7. BYU body blows (No. 11 BYU 26 Cincinnati 14)

BYU running back LJ Martin has not been the most efficient player in the country this season, coming into Week 13 ranked 126th in EPA/rush and 127th in rushing success rate. A true workhorse back isn’t after gaudy efficiency numbers, but they finally came in Week 13 against Cincinnati. 

Martin rushed 32 times for 220 yards and two touchdowns, adding three catches for 44 yards, and finishing with 15.46 total expected points added on the day. That’s 5.6 times his total EPA for the season of 2.77 coming into the week. I’m not one for the body-blow theory, but I have to imagine that colliding like this with 6-foot-2, 220 pounds, probably started to get old pretty quickly, and might explain BYU’s 175 rushing yards in the second half.  

BYU’s yards per carry jumped from 4.3 in the first half to 6.3 after the intermission. For the season, though, Martin is actually averaging 1.4 more yards per carry in the first half of games. 

Dessert: Whether it’s a rich play design or a decadent athletic display, here’s a sweet football treat

8. A Manning masterpiece (No. 17 Texas 52 Arkansas 37)

Who doesn’t love a little Philly Special? Steve Sarkisian certainly isn’t above breaking it out against a two-win Arkansas team with his playoff life hanging by an absolute thread. And, on the brink, it was Arch Manning who had a historic day to keep Texas alive. Manning became the first SEC quarterback with a passing, rushing, and receiving touchdown in the same game since Dak Prescott in 2014, finishing with 389 yards through the air and six total touchdowns. 

Arch also became the first Manning to catch a touchdown pass in college football, or the NFL for that matter. There aren’t a whole lot of firsts left in that family, so he’ll need to keep getting creative to find them. 

Yes, it came against one of the worst defenses in the Power 4, if not the absolute worst. However, the throws Manning was making were impressive regardless of the defense on the other side. He went three for five on throws over 20 yards downfield for 150 yards and two scores, with all three of those completions traveling over 40 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. 

It was exactly the type of performance Manning was supposed to have against that Arkansas defense, and he’ll need to be just as good against Texas A&M in Week 14 for the Longhorns to have any shot at climbing into the Top 12. 

9. Ohio State can play Michigan’s game (No. 1 Ohio State 42 Rutgers 9)

By total rushing expected points added, Ohio State’s three best games this season, excluding a 70-0 win over Grambling, have all come in the Buckeyes’ last three games. Ryan Day is so experimental as he navigates a regular season, and the month of November has been all about learning how to run the ball, so if Michigan drags his team down into the mud again, they can win that way, too. 

With Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate both out against Rutgers, Ohio State had a staggering 69 percent early down rush rate, Julian Sayin attempted only 19 passes, and tight ends combined to play 81 total snaps in the game. Max Klare led the Buckeyes in receiving as only two wide receivers caught passes and combined for 33 yards on four catches, but those tight ends, Klare included, were out there to block in the run game. 

This pin-pull out of 13 personnel is a thing of absolute beauty. Watch it three times, and watch a different tight end each time. Klare gets out in front and leads the way with an awesome block, but this run doesn’t get to the outside without Will Kacmarek pinning a defensive end and Bennett Christian driving a linebacker to the opposite hash marks. 

Kid’s menu: The CFP is a 12-team reservation that needs one kid’s menu for the Group of Six team (And maybe another for the ACC)

The ACC didn’t do anything in Week 13 to prove it’s ready to order off the real menu. 

10. No love for the fellas up front (No. 13 Miami 34 Virginia Tech 17)

Miami’s run game, or lack thereof, is starting to become a real concern. Typically, that starts with the group up front, but Mario Cristobal builds his teams through the offensive line. While this may not be the best run-blocking unit he’s assembled in his coaching career, it should be more than capable of rushing for more than the 2.8 yards per carry that it mustered on Saturday in Blacksburg. 

So, it’s only fair to turn the attention to the running backs, and they haven’t exactly impressed. By yards after contact per carry, Mark Fletcher leads the Hurricanes at 3.39, but that ranks him just 114th in the country and 15th in the ACC. By breakaway yardage percentage, Fletcher is 204th nationally and 24th in the conference (per PFF.com). 

Those numbers are more than troublesome, especially considering the quarterback. Carson Beck was excellent on Saturday, but with a rushing attack that is one of the absolute worst in the country by explosiveness metrics, there will be a lot on his shoulders against Pitt in another must-win spot next week. 

11. Rhett Lashlee doesn’t die (SMU 38 Louisville 6)

Rhett Lashlee is like a cockroach; he just doesn’t seem to die. The Mustangs, despite early-season losses to Baylor, TCU, and a road loss to Wake Forest, are as in the mix as ever for the ACC Title Game. After throttling Louisville in Dallas on Saturday, all SMU has to do to make the ACC Championship Game for the second time in two years in the league is beat Cal in Week 14. 

SMU is also easily the scariest of the three teams still alive for the conference title. Its best two performances by offensive EPA/play have come in its last two games, wins over Louisville and Boston College. And a unit that has been 26th percentile in late-down success rate this season, is up over 50 percent for consecutive games, topping out at 63 percent against the Cardinals. 

Since SMU’s Week 9 loss to Wake Forest, Kevin Jennings has taken over, and is playing like one of the best quarterbacks in the country. 

12. Ain’t no sunshine (James Madison 24 Washington State 20)

James Madison escaped a Week 13 square in Harrisonburg with a 58-yard fourth-quarter touchdown run from Wayne Knight, but even in a win, all this game did was further entrench the American as the conference that will be representing the Group of Six in the College Football Playoff. 

Despite its one-loss record, James Madison has yet to make an appearance in the CFP Top 25 while the committee shuffles in the American Conference favorite du jour. I’ve been arguing all year that the chaos in the American is going to open the door for a one-loss JMU to jump into the CFP, but that dream died on Tuesday night when Tulane, which has a 22-point loss to UTSA on its resume, cracked the rankings at No. 24 and the Dukes were nowhere to be found. 

Whichever team wins the American, be it Tulane, North Texas, or even Navy, that team will be in the CFP, not James Madison. A blowout of Washington State, which has hung with Virginia and Ole Miss this season, may have tipped the scales, but now it’s a lost cause for the Sun Belt.