Table for 12 Week 3: Ugly losses knock 2 CFP contenders out of the hunt

When Neyland Stadium is rocking with 109,000 fans on a Saturday in early September, it’s a pretty good indicator that SEC football is all the way back. We got a taste last week with Ole Miss and Kentucky, but Georgia/Tennessee was a full meal by itself. So, let’s dig right into our Main Course for Week 3 with a game that already had major SEC Championship and College Football Playoff implications. 

But before we do, Week 3 wasn’t just about starting conference play for so many programs. It also brought an end to two teams’ CFP hopes. We have our first two contenders who are paying their check and are ready to leave this dinner party early. 

Main Course

1. Georgia escapes Neyland (No. 6 Georgia 44 No. 15 Tennessee 41)

After Georgia’s 44-41 overtime win at Neyland Stadium on Saturday, Kirby Smart told Holly Rowe that Tennessee deserved to win the game, and statistically, he was right. The Volunteers finished with an 83 percent postgame win expectancy and were a 43-yard Max Gilbert field goal away from cashing that in for the victory. 

Georgia is 3-0 and has its first SEC win with Gunner Stockton at quarterback, but unlike when Smart led the Bulldogs to consecutive national titles with another moxie king, Stetson Bennett at quarterback, the Bulldogs have serious problems for him to overcome. Suddenly, the Georgia Bulldogs are losing the battle in the trenches. 

On Saturday, Stockton was pressured on 35.9 percent of his dropbacks, and though he averaged 11.6 yards per attempt in that sample size, he was sacked four times. Redshirt freshman Michael Uini replaced Earnest Greene III at right tackle, and allowed four pressures while Tennessee’s Caleb Herring racked up two sacks and three Vols posted a pass-rush win-rate over 20 percent (per PFF). 

On the other side, Georgia, after losing Mykel Williams and Jalon Walker to the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft, is without a dominant force on the defensive line. Georgia pressured Aguilar just 10 times, and Raylen Wilson was the only player with more than one pressure; both were schemed up blitzes from his linebacker spot. 

Georgia took advantage of Tennessee’s two injured cornerbacks, Georgia ran the ball when it mattered, and according to its head coach, Georgia didn’t deserve to win the game. So, who exactly is the favorite in the SEC? Because every contender has shown major flaws. 

Check Please!: When it’s clear there won’t be a seat for you at the CFP table, it’s time to pay your check and go

2. Cade Klubnik can’t carry Clemson (Georgia Tech 24 No. 12 Clemson 21)

Clemson lost three games in the regular season last year and still managed to claim a spot in the College Football Playoff as the ACC Champs. So, on one hand, counting Dabo Swinney’s team out this early could be a fool’s errand; on the other hand, have you watched Clemson play? 

The Tigers fell to 1-2 on Saturday with a 24-21 loss to Georgia Tech on a walk-off 55-yard field goal by Aidan Birr. The loss came a week after Clemson trailed Troy 16-3 at halftime before escaping with an uninspiring 27-16 win. Yet, even the last time the program started 1-2, in 2014, Clemson rallied to 10-3. 

So, why am I so willing to write off this year’s team? The quarterback. Yes, the one that entered the season, inexplicably in my opinion, as many evaluators’ top passer in the 2026 NFL Draft. It’s not that Cade Klubnik is bad, though you can argue that he was on Saturday, finishing 15-for-26 for 207 yards and a touchdown with a lost fumble and a red zone interception. It’s that he’s not an elevator, the type of rising tide that can lift a program that doesn’t quite recruit on the same level as SEC powerhouses and doesn’t have the most robust NIL operation. He’s not Deshaun Watson, not Trevor Lawrence, and players like that, at the most important position, have always been how Swinney has won big in the past. 

Postgame, Swinney blamed his defense, specifically the lack of physicality on the perimeter, for allowing Georgia Tech to march 90 yards down the field in the fourth quarter to take a 21-14 lead and then 38 yards to set up the game-winning kick. Those critiques are justified, but his loaded defensive line generated seven tackles for loss, and Tom Allen’s unit held Georgia Tech to a minuscule four percent explosive play rate. All Klubnik had to do was score more than 24 points on a defense that ranks 100th in the country in EPA/play and 87th in opponent success rate. 

Klubnik’s offense struggles have come with a shaky interior offensive line and left tackle Tristan Leigh and star wide receiver Antonio Williams out, but those excuses only hold so much weight. Klubnik is an above-average runner with a serviceable arm and solid accuracy. He’s good. Clemson, even a team that entered the year No. 4 in the country with self-imposed 16-0 expectations, needed him to be great. 

3. South Carolina sinks without Sellers (Vanderbilt 31 No. 11 South Carolina 7)

Why South Carolina was No. 11 after needing a punt return touchdown to beat Virginia Tech 24-11 at a neutral site, and Vanderbilt remained unranked after pounding the Hokies 44-20 at Lane Stadium with 34 unanswered points in the second half, was a mystery to me. Hopefully that discrepancy will be rectified by the AP voters after Vandy’s 31-7 drubbing of the Gamecocks in Columbia on Saturday night, but knowing the AP Poll, I bet it won’t be. 

South Carolina lost LaNorris Sellers on a hit to the head by Langston Patterson, which was ruled targeting. However, the loss of the quarterback on Saturday night isn’t why I’ve eliminated South Carolina from playoff contention. It’s the losses of the Gamecocks’ defense stars from last season that had me expecting Shane Beamer’s team to take a major step back. 

The Gamecocks sent eight defensive players from last year’s roster to the NFL, including five draft picks. There are a few SEC programs that can replace that level of talent. South Carolina is not one of them. 

Send it back: Sometimes when a meal just isn’t right, you’ve got to send it back, and in this category, these head coaches feel that way about their team’s performances

4. Notre Dame’s path narrows (No. 16 Texas A&M 41 No. 8 Notre Dame 40)

Marcus Freeman led Notre Dame to the national championship game last season. Now he’s 0-2, and he doesn’t have his new quarterback to blame; instead, it’s his old one. 

Tyler Buchner was named Notre Dame’s starting QB, Freeman’s first year at the helm. Then, after suffering an injury, he transferred to Alabama, lost the starting job to Jalen Milroe, transferred back to South Bend to play lacrosse, and eventually rejoined the football team as a wide receiver in 2024. This season, he’s a backup quarterback, and crucially, the holder for field goals and extra points. That’s where Buchner cost the Fighting Irish on Saturday night, botching the hold after Jeremiyah Love’s second touchdown of the game gave them a 40-34 lead with 2:53 left in the fourth quarter, which Marcel Reed and the Aggies promptly erased with a 13-play 74-yard touchdown drive. 

Notre Dame has problems. Defensive coordinator Chris Ash has not replicated Al Golden’s success with a similar cast of characters, particularly in the secondary, and CJ Carr is making freshman mistakes. But the biggest problem is the path to the College Football Playoff. 

After close losses to Miami and Texas A&M, no team remaining on Notre Dame’s schedule is currently ranked in the AP Top 25 (flawed as it is), but more than that, only three teams left look certain to make a bowl game: Boise State, USC, and Navy, and two of those are Group of Six teams. NC State and Pitt look to be the next toughest upcoming opponents. 

In all likelihood, a 10-win Notre Dame team will have a seat at the CFP table, but how confident can you feel about the Irish running the table after an 0-2 start? Sorry Notre Dame fans, but you have to root for USC, and hard, because that’s your team’s only chance to have a quality win in 2025. 

5. Undercooked Arch Manning (No. 7 Texas 27 UTEP 10)

It took three games into his first season as the Texas starting quarterback for Arch Manning to be booed by his home crowd. In his fifth career start against UTEP on Saturday, the redshirt sophomore started 5-of-16 passing for 69 yards and a touchdown with 10 straight incompletions. He finished the 27-10 win 11-for-24 for 114 yards with two rushing touchdowns and 51 yards on the ground. 

My concerns about Arch coming into the season and out of Week 1 largely centered around his processing ability and the lack of anticipation, but at this point, it’s just a flat-out accuracy issue. When he’s on balance and in rhythm, he can deliver most throws, but anytime he attempts to throw off-platform or alter his arm angle for any reason, he sprays the ball. If that continues, it puts a huge cap on his and Texas’s upside this season. 

So far this season, an Arch Manning dropback has been with -0.31 expected points added, and has been a successful play just a third of the time. That’s alarming. While other first-year starters like Ty Simpson, Julian Sayin, and even true freshman Bryce Underwood continue to make strides, Manning doesn’t just not look ready; he simply looks bad. And if Steve Sarkisian is saying he's not hurt, then maybe that's what he is.

6. Josh Heupel’s off-menu order (No. 6 Georgia 44 No. 15 Tennessee 41)

In five tries, Josh Heupel has never beaten Georgia. He has also led Georgia, 7-0, 3-0, 7-0, 10-0, and now 21-7. Heupel is one of the best in the country at constructing an opening drive script, and on Saturday, it worked to a T, eight plays, 75 yards, a touchdown, and the Volunteers huddled. The drive took two minutes and 30 seconds. 

When Huepel and transfer quarterback Joey Aguilar played with tempo, Tennessee controlled the trenches, ran the ball effectively, and found explosive plays in the passing game, particularly to Chris Brazzell II, who went for 177 yards and three touchdowns on six catches. Then, it nearly happened again. The offense started to bog down, Tennessee failed to score on five straight drives, and it appeared that Kirby Smart and Glenn Schumann had figured him out. 

Then, the Vols roared to life and had a chance to win it. A win would’ve been much better, but the fact that Huepel’s offense produced a 54 percent success rate against Georgia, and had answers once they got off the pre-determined script is a positive sign for the Vols going forward. 

Heupel, the torch-bearer of Art Briles' veer-and-shoot offense, has begun to vary his wide receiver splits, not constantly having his outside receivers practically shaking the hand of the coaching staff on the sidelines pre-snap. He’s gotten more diverse in the run game, is using multiple tight ends more often, and has a quarterback who is fearless and throws with great anticipation, a perfect combination to excel over the middle of the field. Heupel needed a counterpunch, and he landed a pretty stiff one on Saturday, but it still wasn’t enough. 

The issue is the same one Tennessee had with Nico Iamaleava last season. Without play-action, the passing game falls apart. 

Head of the table: The best individual performance earns the best seat at the table

7. Texas A&M WR Mario Craver

Anytime a performance by a Texas A&M wide receiver evokes the name Mike Evans, they had a day worth mentioning, and boy, was Mario Craver’s Week 3 worth mentioning. The 5-foot-9, 165-pound Mississippi State transfer could not be more different than Evans, but his 172 first-half receiving yards were the most by an Aggie since Evans posted 182 in the first half against Auburn in 2013. Craver finished with 208 yards, just a bit shy of Evans’ 282 in that matchup with the Tigers. 

Mike Elko spent big in the transfer portal to reconstruct his wide receiver room, adding Craver and KC Concepcion from NC State, and it has immediately paid dividends. On a night when Texas A&M committed 13 penalties for 86 yards and faced an average third-down distance of 8.83 yards, the Aggies managed a 50 percent late-down success rate and routinely burned Notre Dame’s aggressive man coverage. 

Appetizers: A little something to chew on from the week that was in college football

8. Brian Kelly is not worried about his offense, so stop asking (LSU 

For most of the Brian Kelly era at LSU, the Tigers have had elite offenses, and the defense has had no chance. This year, after investing heavily on the defensive side of the football in the Transfer Portal for Year 2 with Blake Baker sending in the signals, it’s become Freaky Friday every Saturday in Baton Rouge. 

But don’t ask Brian Kelly about his offense. A 29 percent overall success rate and a non-explosive play EPA/rush of -0.70 aren’t a problem. It’s fine. Losing nearly a half a point every time we hand the ball off is fine. I swear it’s fine. I’m fighting with reporters to show how not worried I am. 

9. Was Eric Gentry the missing piece for USC? (USC 33 Purdue 17)

Last season, in four games before 6-foot-6, 225-pound linebacker Eric Gentry suffered a season-ending injury, USC went 3-1 and allowed 17.0 points per game. Without Gentry in the lineup, the Trojans went 3-5 while surrendering 26.75 points per game. There were a myriad of reasons why USC’s defense crumbled last season, but losing a chess piece like Gentry is undeniably near the top of the list. 

Now, with Gentry back, USC rolled after a rain delay in West Lafayette behind the redshirt senior’s eight tackles, three tackles for loss, and two sacks. Is this USC defense good? After playing Missouri State, Georgia Southern, and Purdue, who knows? But Gentry is, and the Trojans look comfortably like a top-half team in the Big Ten, and maybe the fourth contender behind the big three. We’ll get our answer in Champaign on September 27, when the Trojans play Illinois. 

Dessert: Whether it’s a rich play design or a decadent athletic display, here’s a sweet football treat

10. Ryan Grubb’s goodies

Ryan Grubb reunited with Kalen DeBoer this offseason, but not exactly on his own accord. Grubb’s foray into the NFL was brief after he and his longtime boss led Washington to the national title game the year prior, and it had everything to do with his lack of run game. Through three games with the Crimson Tide, that issue hasn’t exactly been rectified. 

Ty Simpson was exactly what Alabama needed him to be in the passing game: crisp, accurate, and on time. It was a surgical performance through the air, but what Alabama does not want Simpson to be is the team’s leading rusher, as he was on Saturday against Wisconsin. Simpson’s 25 rushing yards were the most for Alabama, which finished with 72 on 22 attempts. 

If the run game isn’t going to be effective, then Grubb has to manufacture a way to alleviate the mounting pressure on Simpson’s shoulders, and the screen game seems to be his preferred method. Alabama threw seven screens in Week 3 and connected on six for 121 yards and a touchdown, most of them on this beauty: 

For the season, Alabama is averaging 11.1 yards per attempt on screens, which account for 20.6 percent of the menu in the passing game and 27 percent of the production. 

11. A Devon Dampier delight

Leading Wyoming 3-0 at the half, Utah pulled away after the break with 28 second-half points, six courtesy of this Devon Dampier magic trick. Not only did he pick up the fumbled snap instead of falling on it, which almost invariably descends into disaster for most quarterbacks, but he made a legitimately difficult throw once he corralled it. 

While Dampier’s most impressive play of the game came with his arm, it’s his legs that make this Utah offense lethal. Well, that and one of the best offensive lines in college football. Utah rushed for 311 yards on Saturday night, averaging 6.9 yards per carry with a 65 percent success rate, and four different players tallying over 60 yards on the ground. Dampier, of course, led the way with 86 on 13 carries. So far this year

Kid’s menu: The CFP is a 12-team reservation that needs one kid’s menu for the Group of Six team

12. Check the clock, Cinderella (No. 5 Miami 49 USF 12)

The clock struck midnight on USF’s Cinderella start to the season in Week 3, and it was reminiscent of March in college basketball because when Cinderella finally falls, she falls hard. Often, that’s because Cinderella was a high-variance team that plays fast and shoots a lot of threes, and they happened to go down. That’s almost exactly what happened to the Bulls. 

USF downed Boise State and Florida despite ranking 114th in offensive success rate. Alex Golesh plays fast, takes deep shots, and for two weeks, they were all connecting. The explosive play rate was nearly 10 percent overall, and 13.7 percent on the ground, and the turnover margin was +4. Miami limited explosives, played the Bulls to a stalemate in the turnover department, and gained a casual 576 yards of offense. As one does. 

There aren’t many teams in the country that can match Miami in the trenches. Notre Dame couldn’t, and Florida won’t next week. Sometimes football is as simple as that, and suddenly, with their win over Duke and their former quarterback Darian Mensah, Tulane might be the favorite to win the American and claim the G6’s automatic bid into the CFP.