Table for 12 Week 5: James Franklin and Kirby Smart are at it again, and that's not good

Last week, we had playoff elimination games, with Auburn and Illinois paying their check and leaving the dinner party. Week 5 wasn’t about the dark-horse contenders looking to steal one of the 12 spots in the College Football Playoff. No, this week we learned which of the teams we expect to reach the postseason actually have a chance of winning the whole thing. 

When Alabama playing between the hedges in Athens for the first time since 2015, when Kirby Smart was still Nick Saban’s defensive coordinator, is the second biggest game of the primetime slate; you know you’ve got a great week of college football. That’s what Saturday night was, and both Oregon at Penn State and Alabama at Georgia delivered. Oh, and LSU/Ole Miss wasn’t exactly a snoozer either. 

Now, it’s my turn to serve up the goods and help us all digest a bountiful football feast. Bon’ appétit. 

First Course

1. Dante outdueled Drew (No. 6 Oregon 30 No 3 Penn State 24)

Let’s just get it out of the way. James Franklin is now 4-21 against Top 10 opponents in his 12 seasons at Penn State and 15-30 against Top 25 teams. I’m not here to defend him, but I’m not here to bury him either. His team played well enough to win, his quarterback didn’t, so let’s focus on the guys who decided the game on the field because there was no coaching malpractice or indefensible decisions. Players made plays, and Franklin’s most important one didn’t make them often enough. 

The two defensive game plans quickly revealed themselves in Happy Valley on Saturday night. Jim Knowles ran back a version of his three-safety, zone-heavy scheme that put a lid on Oregon’s offense in Ohio State’s Rose Bowl win in January. Oregon defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi wanted to atone for the 297 rushing yards his unit allowed to the Nittany Lions in the Big Ten title game by loading up to stop the run. 

Both accomplished their primary directive, and while ostensibly polar opposite, both defensive coordinators were, in their own way, daring the opposing quarterback to beat them. Knowles challenged the redshirt sophomore Dante Moore to carve up his unit with patient precision, Lupoi staring down a senior three-year starter in Drew Allar and believing he won’t get beat over the top. Moore was up to the task; Allar, for the third straight season against the best teams on Penn State’s schedule, wasn’t. 

56 of Allar’s 137 passing yards came on one early fourth-quarter touchdown drive, which culminated in a 35-yard TD toss to Devonte Ross, part of Penn State’s revamped receiver room. Aside from that drive, Allar went 11-for-22 for 81 yards and added the game-sealing interception in double overtime. 

Moore, on the other hand, completed 29 of his 39 throws for 248 yards and a touchdown. He was composed, not just against the crowd noise of the 110,000+ fans inside Beaver Stadium, but against the Penn State pass rush. As he has all season, Moore sidestepped pressure with ease, also keeping his eyes downfield and delivering accurately from any platform or arm angle. His game-winning TD was the perfect encapsulation of everything that makes him one of the best QBs in the country right now. 

Dan Lanning said, “I think we’ve got the best quarterback in college football” after the game, and I think he’s right. My Top 5 through 5 weeks looks like this: 1. John Mateer 2. Dante Moore 3. Fernando Mendoza 4. Haynes King 5. Diego Pavia

As for Allar, Franklin brought in Andy Kotelnicki to fix the passing game in 2024. It still wasn’t fixed. Then, he cleared out the wide receiver room and brought in three proven transfers to fix the passing game in 2025. It still isn’t fixed. Now, it’s time to blame the QB who, along with that group of pass-catchers, had four starters on the offensive line and two of the best running backs in the entire country return from last year’s CFP semifinalist. 

Yet, this game ended exactly how that Orange Bowl CFP semifinal against Notre Dame did, with a backbreaking Drew Allar interception. He’s indecisive, inconsistent, and with his long levers and sloppy footwork, inaccurate. He’s also incapable of leading this Penn State roster to a national championship. 

Even I, a staunch Allar-truther who pointed the finger at Mike Yurcich in 2023 and the wide receivers in 2024, am ready to admit that the Nittany Lions would be better off if they had kept Beau Pribula instead of the former five-star. 

Second Course

2. Kalen DeBoer has Kirby’s number (No. 17 Alabama 24 No. 5 Georgia 21)

For the second-straight year, Kalen DeBoer has beaten Kirby Smart in his SEC opener. Alabama fans have to be loving this guy, right? Okay, maybe not. The four losses to unranked opponents can be hard to overlook, but in big games, there may not be anyone better than DeBoer right now. He’s the anti-James Franklin. 

DeBoer is 7-0 in his career against Dan Lanning, Kirby Smart, and Steve Sarkisian. That’s not a bad collection of coaches to be undefeated against. Smart, on the other hand, added another loss against the Crimson Tide to his resume, falling to 1-7 against Alabama as a head coach. 

Georgia fans are predictably playing the hits with their Mike Bobo gripes, and nearly all of them are well-founded. Still, Georgia had the better offense on Saturday night. The Bulldogs matched Alabama by EPA/play and bested the Tide by success rate, yards per play, and explosive play rate. They did not, however, have the better quarterback, and that showed up, where it typically does, on late downs.

Ty Simpson was borderline masterful in late-down situations, aside from burning all his team’s first-half timeouts trying to make checks at the line of scrimmage. He threw the ball with such impressive anticipation, especially in the first half when Georgia was bringing extra rushers to get after him and playing man coverage behind it. Kirby Smart adjusted, and because he’s Kirby Smart, he slowed Alabama’s passing attack in the second half as Simpson took time to find his bearings against increased zone looks. 

Yet, Alabama converted on 13 of its 20 late-down attempts, with nine conversions coming through the air, and on late-downs, Alabama averaged 0.53 EPA/play. This table tells just about the entire story. 

Alabama got running back Jam Miller and nose tackle Tim Keenan III back from injury in Week 5, but the Tide still can’t run the ball or stop the run. Those are big issues that aren’t going away, but if you can overcome them to beat Georgia, you can win the SEC. 

Georgia can too, but only because of how flawed the other top contenders are. Stockton is not a bad quarterback, but how Georgia, with all its resources and still just three years removed from back-to-back national championships, ended up in this offensive situation baffles me. 

The Carson Beck divorce felt inevitable, but putting your eggs in the Bobo/Stockton basket while the coaching staff continues to erode puts a hard ceiling on this time. Fernando Mendoza came to Athens for a visit last winter and chose Indiana because Georgia was so invested in Stockton. Feels like that one might be haunting Smart right now. 

Third Course

3. LSU’s offense is broken (No. 13 Ole Miss 24 No. 4 LSU 19)

If you can get pressure by just rushing four, you can beat almost any quarterback. If you can get it with three, ‘almost’ becomes an unnecessary qualifier. That’s exactly what Ole Miss did in the Magnolia Bowl in Oxford on Saturday. 

Heading into LSU’s final offensive drive of the game, which resulted in a six-yard touchdown run from Harlem Berry and included five Garrett Nussmeier completions for 53 yards, the redshirt senior quarterback, the redshirt sennior QB had attempted 14 passes against eight-man coverage looks and was 6-for-14 for 46 yards with an interception and a sack. When Ole Miss had seven or fewer in coverage, He was 10-for-11 for 98 yards and a touchdown (per ESPN). 

Struggles against eight in coverage are about what you’d expect, and the fact that LSU couldn’t run the Rebels out of that strategy, or even just block it up for Nussmeier, likely means that the LSU offense is past the point of no return. 

Now, let’s be clear, this is not the Ole Miss defensive line from a season ago, with Walter Nolen, Princely Umanmielen, Jared Ivey, and JJ Pegues, all NFL draft picks. No, this is an Ole Miss defense that came in averaging just one sack per game and ranking 120th in opponent rushing success rate. And LSU didn’t stand a chance in the trenches. 

LSU, without starting running back Caden Durham, averaged 2.6 yards per carry on 22 attempts with a 33 percent success rate and generated -0.19 EPA/carry with zero explosive runs. So, Pete Golding was free to drop eight nearly the entire game while still generating pressure on a modest but effective 22.2 percent of Nussmeier’s dropbacks despite the veteran QB averaging 2.56 seconds to throw. On the six snaps that Golding did blitz, Nussmeier burned him with four completions for 66 yards and a touchdown. 

If LSU could block it up for Nussmeier and force teams to dial up more blitz looks, he’s good enough to win a national championship, but his offensive line is failing him. 

There was a lot of good on the Ole Miss side, and Trinidad Chambliss continues to be one of the most fun stories of the season, but the story of this game is LSU’s offensive line because it might keep the Tigers out of the CFP. 

Head of the table: The best individual performance earns the seat at the head of the table

4. Notre Dame RB, Jeremiyah Love (No. 22 Notre Dame 56 Arkansas 13)

With the quarterbacks everyone expected to be in the Heisman race this season, Arch Manning, Cade Klubnik, and Garrett Nussmeier, fading away, the door had opened for Jeremiyah Love to make a bid to become the first running back to win the award since Derrick Henry in 2015. The problem was that Notre Dame lost its two biggest games, and Love got just 14 carries against Miami in Week 1. 

Finally, in Week 5, the best running back in college football had his breakout. Facing the country’s 127th-ranked rushing defense by success rate, Love parlayed 14 carries and five catches into 127 scrimmage yards and four touchdowns. All but one of those yards came in the first half. 

Love is +3500 to win the Heisman Trophy after Saturday, with Dante Moore as the new favorite at +750. I’m not saying that bet would cash, but I am saying that if the award was truly about the best player in college football, you might have a hard time giving it to anyone else. 

A seat at the bar: When all the tables are full, sometimes you can grab a seat at the bar, and maybe these emerging contenders will be seated soon

5. Is it Miller time? (Louisville 34 Pitt 27)

Pitt is not good. Still, when a team spots Pitt 17 points and trails by 10 at halftime after erasing that 17-point deficit, to win a rather comfortable 34-27 game, it’s notable. Especially when that team does it with its best player severely limited. 

Louisville sophomore running back Isaac Brown has just 33 carries this season, after rushing for nearly 1,200 yards as a true freshman, and he managed just 20 yards on his 14 carries Saturday. His running mate, Duke Watson, still had to shoulder the load after suffering an ankle injury in the first half. At its best, that tandem doesn’t quite rival Notre Dame’s running backs, but it could give Penn State’s duo a run for its money. 

Louisville can make a push for a spot in the ACC Championship Game, but Jeff Brohm will need those backs healthy because his latest spin on the QB rental roulette wheel may not be a winner. Miller Moss has now played in two of the most quarterback-friendly offenses in the country with Lincoln Riley and Brohm, and he hasn’t looked good in either of them. 

Appetizers: A little something to chew on from the week that was in college football

6. Deja UVA (Virginia 46 No. 8 FSU 38)

30 years ago, Danny Kannell and Warrick Dunn led undefeated No. 2 Florida State into Charlottesville on a Thursday night in November, and suffered the program’s first-ever ACC defeat. On Friday night, Tommy Castellanos led undefeated No. 8 Florida State into Charlottesville, and the Wahoos did it again. In fact, the 48-36 double-overtime upset win was Virginia’s fourth over the Seminoles across the last seven meetings. 

Though UVA has somehow had Florida State’s number, it was a classic trap game with No. 2 Miami heading to Tallahassee next week. Tommy Castellanos and the FSU offense played well, including connecting with Randy Pittman Jr. for a game-tying touchdown with 36 seconds left in the fourth quarter and throwing another should have been TD that Duce Robinson bobbled all the way through the end zone in the second OT. 

The issue was on the other side of the ball. Florida State allowed 211 yards on the ground against the most experienced offensive line in the country, and could not get off the field on third down. Virginia faced an average late down distance of 11.73 yards, but generated 1.44 EPA/play on their 15 late-down plays. That included multiple conversions from Chandler Morris with his legs. All six Morris careers went for either a touchdown or a first down, and Florida State’s defense missed 15 tackles, the most of any game this year. Can you say ‘lack of focus’?

This week, it was the most veteran; next week, they’ll have the best offensive line in the country on the other side, so it may not get better, but at least the effort should because a look-ahead loss is only worth it if you cash in the next week. 

What no one had a chance to defend was the field storming from The Hill at Scott Stadium. And yes, this is dangerous, but it also looks insanely fun. And, no, a $50,000 fine from the ACC isn’t going to stop it. 

7. Math is always right, Lincoln Riley, not so much (No. 23 Illinois 34 No. 21 USC 32)

USC marching down the field on its final drive of the game, Gus Johnson said, “The analytics have a chance to be right.” Here’s the thing: the analytics are always right because math is always right. The analytics don’t always work out, but that’s because they’re just probabilities. We can’t play the results with analytical decision-making forever. Going for two after scoring a touchdown to cut a 14-point deficit to eight is always the right decision; taking a shot to the end zone on the first play after the two-minute warning, not so much.

Lincoln Riley seemed to be managing the game perfectly. Then, the head coach, who has been lauded for his return to the run game and physicality with Waymond Jordan this season, dialed up a pass to the end zone from the 16-yard line that Makai Lemon hauled in for his second score of the game and left far too much time for Luke Altmyer and Illinois. 

The touchdown toss added 35 percent win probability for USC, but improved it to just 39.5 percent overall. That was the most significant probability swing of any one play in the game; the second most was Altmyer’s 13-yard scramble to the USC 32-yard line with 50 seconds remaining. His two passing touchdowns, one rushing touchdown, and one receiving touchdown performance, along with Riley’s overzealous play-calling, was enough to overcome two goalline fumbles by his running backs, Kaden Feagin and Ca’Lil Valentine. 

USC isn’t exactly done in the CFP race. There are still too many opportunities to notch big wins to write the Trojans off. However, this loss could have an even bigger impact on their biggest rival, Notre Dame, because USC is/was the Irish’s only chance at a ranked win this year. 

Dessert: Whether it’s a rich play design or a decadent athletic display, here’s a sweet football treat

8. Elko’s defensive dominance (No. 9 Texas A&M 16 Auburn 10)

Auburn’s offense has big problems, quarterback Jackson Arnold chief among them, but regardless of the state of the opposition, holding any SEC team to one total yard of offense in the fourth quarter of a one-score game is a remarkable feat. Statistically, the entire performance was somewhat staggering. 

Texas A&M held Auburn to 155 yards of total offense and 0-14 on third and fourth downs. That should probably be a fireable offense for Hugh Freeze, but it’s certainly a benchable one for Arnold, especially considering the way that A&M was able to pressure him on 44 percent of his dropbacks and sack him five times. 

Elko brought the blitz 15 times, and nearly every time, it got home. Middle linebacker Taurean York rushed the passer five times all game. He generated a pressure on four of those snaps. Safety Dalton Brooks registered four pass-rushing snaps and three pressures, and Daymion Sanford turned his five rushes into two sacks. 

Arnold and the Auburn offensive line weren’t just overmatched after the snap; they were losing the battle at the line of scrimmage before the play even began. Is that on Freeze, Arnold, or any of the rotating play-callers on Auburn’s offensive staff? Who knows, but Elko gave us a few delicious pre-snap disguises, like Brooks coming from depth to help Dayon Hayes call the game. 

Escape room: Sometimes you need dinner and a show. These teams gave it to us by escaping major upsets

9. No Josh Heupel, your timeouts stay in Starkville (No. 15 Tennessee 41 Mississippi State 34) 

It’s not often that you see a game with such a decided discrepancy by expected points added, decided by such a close margin. Tennessee needed overtime to put away Mississippi State, and the Starkville magic was in full effect. Josh Heupel’s offense 7.63 yards per play, 0.35 EPA/dropback, and a 12 percent explosive play rate. 

The Vols, however, struggled mightily on third down and, with 1:23 and three timeouts left in the fourth quarter of a tie game, ran just two plays in the first 52 seconds of the drive, failed to move the ball into field goal range, and ended regulation with two timeouts in their pocket. One can only assume that was due to the concussion effects of cowbells ringing in your ears nonstop for four hours. 

10. Curt Cignetti snuck out of Kinnick (No. 11 Indiana 20 Iowa 15)

Talk about a Chinese finger trap of a game. Heading to Kinnick Stadium off a 63-10 win over a top 10 team, with a bye week upcoming before getting Oregon. It was a classic let-down spot, with a hearty serving of look-ahead on the side. It resulted in a 20-15 Indiana win, which matched the Michigan game last year as the smallest margin of victory for Curt Cignetti since arriving in Bloomington. 

The victory was just his second in a one-score game since at Indiana. A lack of wins in one-score games is what did Brent Key in at Virginia Tech, and could cost Hugh Freeze his job at Auburn, and in many ways is the ultimate indictment of a head coach. I think Indiana fans will let it slide, though, because he’s 2-0 while every other win has come by at least 13 points. 

Across those other 15 wins, the Hoosiers’ average margin of victory is 36.5. The margin of victory in his eight other wins over Power Conference opponents, aside from the Michigan and Iowa games, is 34.9. It is still 28.9 when you factor in those one-score wins.

11. Brent Key almost got locked in Winston-Salem (No. 16 Georgia Tech 30 Wake Forest 29)

For me, the main takeaway from Saturday in the ACC is that, however bad you thought Clemson was, it’s worse. The Tigers were off, so they’re still stuck at 1-3, but the last two teams that beat Dabo Swinney’s squad didn’t exactly have great showings. Syracuse, without its starting QB Steve Angeli, who was lost for the season in the win over Clemson, fell 38-3 to Duke at home, and Georgia Tech, up to No. 16 in the AP Poll, needed more kicking heroics from Aidan Birr just to overcome Wake Forest in overtime. And the Yellow Jackets probably didn’t deserve the chance. 

Facing a third-and-5 from the Wake Forest 32-yard line with 1:48 left in the fourth quarter, up three, Demon Deacons quarterback Robby Ashford thought he had a free play after a Georgia Tech defender seemingly jumped offsides before the snap. Ashford, thinking he had a free first down in his pocket, took a deep shot that fell incomplete. Only, the flag never came. A flag that, with Georgia Tech out of timeouts, would have effectively ended the game. 

Instead, Wake Forest punts, and Haynes King marched his Yellow Jackets into field goal range with a nine-play, 54-yard drive. King, who has been banged up in the past, needed to rush the ball 19 times for 100 yards and two touchdowns just to beat Wake Forest, but luckily for King, Tech won’t face a ranked opponent until it hosts Georgia in the final week of the regular season. 

Kid’s menu: The CFP is a 12-team reservation that needs one kid’s menu for the Group of Six team

12. Boise State’s Achilles Heel (Boise State 47 App State 14)

I’ve spent all season writing about the American, and I still believe that’s where the CFP rep will come from with USF’s blowout win over Boise State looming out there as convincing evidence of which conference is stronger. However, Spencer Danielson has largely managed to keep things together and just rolled App State with four touchdown passes from Maddux Madsen. 

The Boise State defense, however, needed a performance like it had on Saturday on The Blue Turf, holding App State to -0.92 EPA/dropback. That’s a 100th percentile outing for the Broncos' passing defense, but the run defense continued to struggle, registering in the 8th percentile, allowing 0.34 EPA/rush with a 0 percent run-stuff rate. 

The run defense simply has to be better for the Broncos, still the favorites to win the Mountain West, to repeat as Mountain West Champs. Oh, and don’t worry, you only have a trip to South Bend on deck next week. Maybe that Jeremiyah Love Heisman bet doesn’t sound too bad after all.