Table for 12 Week 9: Texas A&M isn't the only contender to lock up a CFP spot

The College Football Playoff is one of the most exclusive restaurants around, so it’s best to make your reservations about six weeks out. That’s how long it is until the CFP committee sets the bracket for the 2025 12-team playoff, and we’re now only nine days away from the first CFP rankings reveal on November 4. 

December 7 is when spots are officially announced, but the committee has been watching, and they know a few teams that are certainly going to be in the field. Well, I do too, so it’s time to start filling out of seating chart and making postseason reservations at our Table for 12. 

Week 9 brought our first three teams to lock up a spot in the CFP, and there will be more to come as we’re suddenly heading towards the home stretch of the college football season. 

First Course

1. Mateer mistakes (No. 8 Ole Miss 34 No. 13 Oklahoma 26)

Oklahoma finally found a run game. Yet, even with 109 yards on the ground from Xavier Robinson and an 80th percentile 0.18 EPA/carry performance, Oklahoma’s offense couldn’t do enough to take down Ole Miss at home. 

Part of the Sooners’ run game success is that Pete Golding’s Ole Miss defense tends to permit some yardage on the ground to hunt tackles for loss and prevent explosive plays. The Rebels tend to play with two high safeties, and their defensive linemen shift and slant to jump running lanes. That led to explosives on the ground, but Mateer, two weeks after a three-interception outing against Texas, made too many mistakes. 

He didn’t turn the ball over, but Oklahoma finished with a 35 percent passing success rate, while 76 of Mateer’s 223 passing yards and his lone touchdown came on one play to Isaiah Sategna. He has not thrown multiple touchdown passes in a game since Week 1 against Illinois State and hasn’t run for a touchdown in over a month. 

Mateer isn’t confident in the pocket. He’s constantly looking to bail and create off-schedule and hunt for big plays. Sometimes that’s a positive, but not when you never turn that mindset off and take a deep shot on a got-to-have-it fourth-and-5 to keep the game alive instead of hitting your wide open No. 1 receiver for a first down. 

For a moment, he looked like a Heisman Trophy candidate and a first-round pick. Now, it’s clear that Mateer should come back for another season to learn to play on schedule more because he’s excellent when he does it. In Week 9, he went 11-for-16 for 103 yards on dropbacks of less than 2.5 seconds or less and 6-for-15 for 120 yards (76 and a TD on one play) on dropbacks of more than 2.5 seconds, with three sacks.

Second Course

2. It’s not just Pavia (No. 10 Vanderbilt 17 No. 15 Missouri 10)

The last time Vanderbilt started 7-1 was 1941, and after the Commodores' 17-10 win over Missouri in Nashville on Saturday, no team in the country has more wins against top 15 teams this season (4). Diego Pavia hasn’t quite made his reservation to the College Football Playoff, but he and his team shouldn’t start making other plans for December. 

This time, it wasn’t all about Pavia, though he scored the deciding touchdown, diving over two defenders into the end zone. It was about a defense that isn’t just SEC good, but might be good enough to win multiple games in the CFP. Heading into Week 9, according to Sports Info Solutions, Vanderbilt had the highest non-blitz pressure rate in the country at 42 percent. 

The Commodores managed just one sack, credited to Keanu Koht, the 11th different player on the defense to record a sack this year, but they finished with 4 tackles for loss, and allowed -0.20 EPA/carry to an offense that came in ranked 12th nationally in that metric. 

Vanderbilt pressured Beau Pribula, limited his impact on the ground, and made a huge goalline stop on Pribula, which knocked the Missouri QB out for the game and likely the season as he was carted off with an air cast on his left leg. On three red zone trips, the Tigers, which came in ranked 36th in red zone touchdown percentage, managed just seven points. 

To compete for an SEC Title, which Vanderbilt legitimately is nine weeks into the season, you have to be able to win in multiple different ways, and this time, Vandy proved that it can survive a slugfest. 

Third Course

3. Bama deserves its Week 10 bye (No. 4 Alabama 29 South Carolina 22)

Alabama’s reward for beating four consecutive ranked SEC opponents without a bye week in between for the first time in college football history was a trip to Williams-Brice Stadium in Columbia. Kalen DeBoer is a big-game hunter, so a letdown spot on the road against an unranked team is almost scarier, and it nearly ended in an upset. 

Ty Simpson was far from perfect. Aided by multiple drops from Ryan Williams, Germie Bernard, and Rico Scott, he turned in his worst performance since the Week 1 loss to Florida State, finishing 24-for-43 for 253 yards and two touchdowns. Yet, in the biggest moment, trailing 22-14 after a turnover on downs and three straight three-and-outs to start the second half, he was nails. 

On a 14-play 79-yard game-tying touchdown drive that ate up nearly eight minutes of the fourth quarter, Simpson went 7-for-9 for 54 yards and a touchdown with two third-down conversions in Alabama territory. 

It’s not just his quarterback that Kalen DeBoer needs to thank for avoiding his fifth loss to an unranked opponent since taking over in Tuscaloosa, though. It’s not even just redshirt senior linebacker Deontae Lawson, who stripped LaNorris Sellers to set up the game-winning Bernard touchdown run. It’s also Shane Beamer. 

With 10 minutes left, six plays after lucking into a fumble recovery off a punt, Sellers scampered into the end zone for a 10-yard score. Then, instead of going for two to go up nine points, a two-score lead, Beamer elected to kick the extra point to go up eight. That’s a fine game management decision if you’re an evenly matched team. If you’re a big underdog with a chance to throw your opponent into an urgent situation down two scores in the fourth quarter, you have to take it. 

A big win could’ve bought him another year, but now might be the time for Beamer to go reset the clock at Virginia Tech. For Alabama, it’s hard to imagine a team earning a bye week more than a team that went 5-0 against Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri, Tennessee, and South Carolina. 

Reservations: The season isn’t over yet, but these teams have all but locked up a spot in the CFP

4. Blitz Marcel Reed at your own risk (No. 3 Texas A&M 49 LSU 25)

Marcel Reed entered Week 9 averaging 8.4 yards per attempt against the blitz with a 117.1 passer rating and 12 scrambles. He has one of the best man coverage beating wide receivers in the country in Mario Craver, who is No. 2 in yards per route run vs. man at 4.63, and was ninth in the country in scramble yards at 262. Just one of his six interceptions prior to Saturday night in Death Valley came against the blitz. 

Yet, when the No. 3 Aggies rolled into Baton Rouge, LSU defensive coordinator Blake Baker couldn’t help himself. Like Diego Pavia did a week ago, Marcel Reed ran all over the LSU defense, racking up 108 yards, 62 of which came on scrambles, and two touchdowns on 13 carries while hitting enough big plays in the passing game to overcome his two interceptions. In SEC play, LSU is allowing 60.6 rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks and 4.04 yards per attempt to QBs. 

On the seven dropbacks that LSU blitzed Reed, the redshirt sophomore torched him for 87 yards on four of six completions.

Saturday night was Texas A&M’s first win in Death Valley since 1994, and was just Brian Kelly’s second loss at home in 22 tries since taking over in Baton Rouge. Despite trailing at halftime, it was a comprehensively dominant performance by the Aggies, who, with eight wins already, could win just one of their next four games against Missouri, South Carolina, Samford, and Texas, and almost certainly still get into the field. 

5. 50-burgers! Served fresh weekly! (No. 2 Indiana 56 UCLA 6)

The last team to win two conference games by 50-plus points in a single season was 2018 Clemson, which rode true freshman Trevor Lawrence to a national championship. Since Curt Cignetti took over last year, Indiana has had three such conference victories. The last 50-plus point win over a conference foe prior to Cignetti was 1917 when the Hoosiers beat the University of Chicago 51-0 in Western Conference play. 

Indiana, including nearly a half of football with Alberto Mendoza, not Fernando, at quarterback, finished with 475 yards of offense and 14-for-18 on third and fourth-down conversions. The offense is 99th percentile in early-down EPA/play, and is now 88th percentile in late-down success rate, despite being just 7th percentile in explosive play rate. They’re a demolition crew, but rather than using dynamite, they take you apart brick by brick. 

Now, with UCLA’s cute little 3-0 run over, the Hoosiers have Maryland, Penn State, Wisconsin, and Purdue left on the schedule. That group is a combined 1-17 in Big Ten play after Saturday. The Hoosiers don’t even need to win out to claim an at-large spot into the CFP, but it’s safe to say that they’ll win out and be playing for the Big Ten title in Indiana. 

6. Stay in your Lane (No. 8 Ole Miss 34 No. 13 Oklahoma 26)

Trinidad Chambliss isn’t just a good story for a DII transfer from Ferris State; he’s a legitimately good quarterback who might even be an upgrade over Ole Miss’s starting quarterback from last season, Jaxson Dart. That’s how well he’s playing right now and how well he fits Lane Kiffin and Charlie Weis Jr.’s offense. 

He finished 24-for-44 for 315 yards and a touchdown with 53 yards on the ground against a defense that came into the week ranked first in the country in EPA/play, EPA/game, and success rate. He generated 0.22 EPA/dropback with a 15 percent explosive pass rate.

Beyond Chambliss’s efficiency, it was a perfectly Lane Kiffin game. Kiffin spent the week calling out Brent Venables' mastery of stealing signals, so he countered by huddling, unheard of for a Kiffin offense, and waiting until after the helmet communication system turns off with 15 seconds on the play clock so Oklahoma couldn’t make adjustments to their formations and alignments.

Kiffin mitigated Oklahoma’s pass rush by moving the pocket for Chambliss and feeding him a steady diet of quick throws with an average time to throw of just 2.33 seconds for the game and 2.14 seconds against the blitz.

However, Kiffin also wouldn’t stop bringing backup QB Austin Simmons onto the field for important plays in the red zone, which were all unsuccessful and he gave Oklahoma three points in the third quarter with a failed fourth-and-1 from his own 25-yard line while leading 22-10. 

It was a roller coaster, but it once again proved that no matter how flawed he’ll always be as a game-manager, he’s a brilliant offensive mind and he has the team to finally make the CFP. At 7-1 (4-1), the Rebels have South Carolina, the Citadel, Florida, and Mississippi State left. He could lose one of those games, like he did to Florida late last season, to miss the playoff, and still have a good enough resume to get an at-large bid. I think the Rebels win out, but with that one-game buffer, I’m ready to give them a reservation. 

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7. Georgia Tech QB, Haynes King (No. 7 Georgia Tech 41 Syracuse 16)

On Saturday, for the second time in his lengthy career, Haynes King threw for 300+ yards, ran for 90+ yards, and accounted for five or more touchdowns. The other instance was last year’s eight overtime loss to Georgia in Week 14. In Week 9 of 2025, the sixth-year senior completed 25 of his 31 passes for 304 yards and three touchdowns with 91 yards and two touchdowns on 12 carries. 

The performance started a drumbeat for King to get Heisman love. That’s justified, he’s one of the six best quarterbacks in the country– my updated list: 1. Ty Simpson 2. Fernando Mendoza 3. Dante Moore 4. Brendan Sorsby 5. Diego Pavia 6. Haynes King– however, you can’t talk about how good he’s been without talking about offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner. 

In Week 9, most of King's throws, especially those under 10 yards downfield, which he went 21-for-23 for 231 yards and all three touchdowns on, were schemed wide open with play-action and pre-snap motion to outleverage the defense. On Saturday, play-action accounted for 141 of his passing yards and all three scores, and 215 of his 304 yards came after the catch. 

It’s not to take away from King’s excellence, but to recognize that Georgia Tech’s coaching staff has maximized his skillset. The threat of King’s legs allows the play-action and screen game to be so effective, and he’s accurate enough to allow his receivers to make plays with the ball in their hands. 

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8. Willie Fritz fool’s gold? (Houston 24 No. 24 Arizona State 16)

Arizona State’s final offensive play of the game was a Jeff Sims pass over the middle to Derek Eusebio that was broken up for a turnover on downs. Sims was good in relief of Sam Leavitt, who left the game injured again, and Kenny Dillingham cobbled together a passing game in Jordyn Tyson’s absence, but Arizona State missed its superstars. 

Without them on the field, Houston was able to move to 7-1 overall and 4-1 in Big 12 play with one loss to Texas Tech. BYU and Cincinnati remain the two unbeatens in the conference, but with the Red Raiders and Cougars both at one loss, it’s a four-team race for the two spots in the Big 12 title game. 

Houston, believe it or not, in Willie Fritz’s second season, is a real threat to win the conference. However, considering it needed 9.9 EPA of turnover luck and two missed fields to build a 24-0 lead that it narrowly held onto, this run might be fool’s gold. 

9. Brendan Sorsby is a star (No. 21 Cincinnati 41 Baylor 20)

The Bearcats have one of the best quarterbacks in the country and in a league of great quarterbacks, that means they have a chance to win the Big 12. Brendan Sorsby didn’t put up gaudy numbers on Saturday against Baylor, only throwing for 111 yards, but much of his value comes on the ground. This year, he’s fifth in the country in EPA/dropback and 11th in EPA/carry. No other player is in the top 15 for both categories. 

The reason he’s so efficient and Cincinnati’s offense is ninth in the country in success rate and fifth in EPA/play is that he never takes negative plays. 

He’s been sacked twice all season, and his 3.3 pressure-to-sack rate is the best in the country and the best by any player with at least 200 dropbacks since Michael Penix Jr. in 2022, his first season at Washington. In the last decade, Sorsby and Penix are the only two players to have a season with at least 200 dropbacks and a pressure-to-sack rate under five percent. On top of that, his last interception came in Cincinnati’s Week 1 loss to Cincinnati. 

Sorsby’s mobility and physicality make him incredibly reliable in the red zone and on late downs, which is where the Bearcats thrived against Baylor, finishing with a 69 percent red zone success rate and a 69 percent success rate on late downs. 

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10. The Longhorns stay alive, but for how long

I thought Mississippi State was finally going to get this Texas team out of my face, but the Longhorns managed to come back from down 38-21 in the fourth quarter to win in overtime. Arch Manning orchestrated the three fourth-quarter scoring drives that Texas needed to hand Mississippi State its 16th-straight SEC loss, but he was lost in overtime after taking a big hit and stumbling to the sideline. 

Texas’s problems along the offensive line with the Bulldogs amassing five sacks and 12 tackles for loss. There’s nothing about the offense that looks capable of beating a good team, and now the quarterback might miss time, and the defense looked questionable for the first time this season. But a win is a win, so we cannot yet bring Steve Sarkisian his check, even if Texas fans are starting to hope that an NFL team writes him one this offseason. 

With Vanderbilt in tow next week, there’s a good chance that Texas’s CFP hopes finally come to a merciful end. 

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11. Just for show (No. 16 Virginia 17 North Carolina 16)

Sometimes the best-looking food in the display case is just for show. In other words, it isn’t real, and neither is UVA. Tony Elliott's team escaped again on Saturday, stopping UNC running back Davion Gause inches short of the end zone on a two-point conversion attempt after the Tar Heels matched Virginia’s touchdown in the first overtime. 

Virginia has now won three straight games with a negative EPA/play, beating UNC by one in overtime, Washington State by two on a safety, and Louisville by three with a +2 turnover margin. The Wahoos have a good record, but their upset win over Florida State is no longer impressive as the Seminoles continue to fall apart, and that game was the last time the offense played well. 

Virginia will likely be favored in three of its final four games and could still find its way to the ACC Championship Game, but any team that needs overtime to beat Bill Belichick’s Tar Heels does not deserve a chance to play for a national championship. 

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12. Not so Automatica (Memphis 34 No. 18 USF 31)

After a 73-yard touchdown on the final play of the third quarter, USF led Memphis 31-17, the second time that the Bulls led by 14 points. Then, as it tends to do, an offense that relies so heavily on explosive plays stalled out at an inopportune time. Despite averaging 57 points across its last four games and 38.2 points for the season, USF’s offense is just 51st percentile in non-explosive EPA/play at -0.24 and 64th in the country in success rate at 43 percent. 

With points on just one of its fourth second-half drives, USF left the game on the foot of Nico Gramatica, the latest in a line of kicking royalty, but a low snap and poor hold led Gramatica to miss the 52-yard kick as time expired. 

Tulane and Memphis have a head-to-head matchup, and USF still has a date with Navy, which is still unbeaten, so as the American cannibalizes itself, the door opens for Boise State and James Madison to make the CFP.