With just three weeks remaining in the college football season, games now matter more than ever. A select few teams appear to be locks for the 12-team College Football Playoff, but many others are still looking to prove themselves and are on the bubble.
As a result, several remaining matchups will be virtual “play-in” games, with teams playing to keep their playoff hopes alive. With that in mind, here are 10 key games over the final three weeks of the season that will decide who gets into the College Football Playoff.
No. 9 Notre Dame vs No. 22 Pitt (Nov. 15)
Pitt head coach Pat Narduzzi has made it clear that this matchup isn’t a make-or-break game for his Panthers, but that is not the case for the Irish. With how things have unfolded, it looks like a two loss Notre Dame team would certainly make it in. This is their last major test of the season as the Irish face a ranked Pitt team on the road before closing out the year against Syracuse and Stanford.
No. 24 USF vs Navy (Nov. 15)
The Group of Five’s Playoff spot will likely be decided in the American Conference Championship, and the winner of this matchup will have a strong chance to get there. USF and Navy are two of five teams in the American with just one conference loss, and they’ll square off on Saturday in Annapolis, where Byrum Brown and the Bulls are 10.5-point favorites.
No. 11 Oklahoma vs No. 4 Alabama (Nov. 15)
Alabama is one of those teams that looks like a lock and could probably afford a loss here, which makes this a dangerous spot for the Tide. The Sooners pulled off the upset last year and will come in confident and rested after a bye, following a big road win over Tennessee. However, pulling off the upset will be much tougher this time with the game taking place in Tuscaloosa.
No. 21 Iowa vs No. 17 USC (Nov. 15)
Had Iowa knocked off Oregon last week, this matchup would have massive implications for both teams. Instead, it’s just for USC’s playoff hopes. All season, we’ve been looking for that fourth playoff team from the Big Ten, and right now, USC looks like the frontrunner in that race. Lincoln Riley’s team has another huge game the following week at Oregon, but that matchup will only matter if the Trojans can take care of business against the Hawkeyes first.
No. 10 Texas vs No. 5 Georgia (Nov. 15)
While many counted Texas out earlier in the season, the Longhorns have kept finding ways to win and are now very much alive in the playoff race. Kirby Smart had Steve Sarkisian’s number last season, and the Bulldogs will be back at home for the first time in almost a month. If Texas were to drop this one, they still have a massive regular-season finale against Texas A&M. If the Longhorns were to split between Georgia and the Aggies, it could spark a very intriguing debate about a three-loss Texas team in the playoff.
No. 19 Virginia vs Duke (Nov. 15)
The ACC has been total chaos this season and now appears to be a one-bid, or even no bid, league with its playoff hopes coming down to the conference champion. Currently, five teams sit atop the standings with one conference loss, including Virginia and Duke. The winner of this matchup will have a strong chance to get to Charlotte and compete for that conference title.
No. 12 BYU vs No. 25 Cincinnati (Nov. 22)
This matchup between BYU and Cincinnati will play a major role in determining who reaches the Big 12 Championship, likely to face Texas Tech. For both teams, the only path to playoff looks to be from a conference title, making this a high-stakes battle at Nippert Stadium.
No. 22 Pitt vs No. 16 Georgia Tech (Nov. 22)
Pitt and Georgia Tech are two of the other teams tied atop the ACC. Pitt will head into this matchup coming off its out-of-conference matchup with Notre Dame, while Georgia Tech faces Boston College beforehand, which should be an easy win. That means this game should carry massive implications, but with how crazy the ACC has been this season, who knows.
Tulane vs Temple (Nov. 22)
Tulane defeated Memphis last week to get themselves right back in the mix in the American and for the Group of Five playoff spot. They’ll take on a frisky Temple team that has a chance to play spoiler late in the season, not just in this matchup, but also the following week against North Texas.
No. 1 Ohio State vs No. 18 Michigan (Nov. 29)
Many believed that the expanded playoff would lessen the significance of historic big matchups like this one. That may have been true last year in terms of results, but it’s unlikely to be the case this season. Once again, Ohio State should be able to afford a loss, but with Michigan having won the last four meetings, that will be far from their mindset. For the Wolverines, if they can take care of business before Thanksgiving, they would enter The Game with two overall losses and one in conference, and potentially be playing for a spot in the Big Ten Championship and College Football Playoff.