While many ACC and Big 12 fans are wondering if either of their conferences can get more than one bid, there's actually a likelier scenario that could result in one of the leagues being left without a participant at all.
We all knew coming into the 12-team College Football Playoff that it would essentially be the SEC and Big Ten invitational. Even if the Big Ten hasn't traditionally been successful in the College Football Playoff — the ACC has more titles in the CFP era than the Big Ten by a wide margin — money talks and, this particular year, the Big Ten has four teams sitting inside the Top-5 of the nation.
The SEC, on the other hand, has been a little more chaotic. The top of the conference continues to shift and there are currently more than a handful of teams that are vying for spots, including Texas, Texas A&M, Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, and Ole Miss.
And then there's Notre Dame.
The Fighting Irish have no other path to the College Football Playoff other than securing an at-large bid. Even though they don't have the toughest schedule, they still sit with one loss currently and an 11-1 Notre Dame isn't being left out.
So, as you can see, the field is already filling up and it looks as if the breakdown College Football Playoff teams will include:
- 4 Big Ten Teams
- 4 SEC Teams
- Notre Dame
- 3 conference champions
Of course, the most likely scenario is that the ACC and Big 12 champions are in the playoff, along with the Group of 5 bid. However, the way things are shaping up in the Group of 5, the ACC and Big 12 are flirting with dangerous territory.
How the ACC and Big 12 are flirting with being left out altogether
There's this belief that the ACC and Big 12 champion have an automatic bid to the playoff, but that's not true. No conference champion actually gets an automatic-qualifying bid. It is actually the five highest-ranked conference champions.
And that's where the danger lies.
If, say, Army and Boise State win out — or Tulane wins out with a victory over Army — we could be set up for an interesting final poll to determine what five teams will get bids to the playoff, not just for the four first-round byes, but also for a chance to get into the playoff altogether.
What do we mean?
Take the Big 12, for instance.
Let's say Colorado loses to Kansas this coming weekend, but the Buffaloes win the following week against Oklahoma State. They'd be sitting at three losses on the season and likely outside of the Top-20 heading into the Big 12 Championship weekend. However, Colorado would just need BYU to beat Arizona State to still go to the conference title game.
Would they really be able to catch, say, an undefeated or one-loss Army with an AAC Championship and surpass both the Black Knights and Boise State, who both would be ahead of them in the playoff rankings?
Things could get even murkier in the ACC.
While Miami is set up well in the rankings, both SMU and Clemson are in volatile places heading down the stretch if they were to lose one. Clemson (7-1 in the ACC) is already finished with conference play, but the Tigers still play South Carolina to close out the season.
Let's say by some miracle Clemson gets to the ACC Championship game — a Miami loss, two SMU losses, or a crazy scenario involving Louisville and Virginia swapping places in conference standings along with an SMU loss to Virginia — and the Tigers win in Charlotte. But, the week before they lose to South Carolina.
Clemson would be sitting at 10-3, likely well behind an Army and Boise State in the College Football Playoff rankings. Would a win over Miami or SMU be enough to bolster the Tigers into one of those top-five conference championship spots with Army, Tulane, and Boise State looming? Only time would tell.
A two-loss ACC or Big 12 Champion is absolutely getting into the field — though it may not be a guarantee they win one of those four first-round byes if things went terribly wrong — but a three-loss champion could be problematic for either conference in making their case to get a single berth into the College Football Playoff, and we're not even talking about at-larges.