There are only four teams remaining in the College Football Playoff.
We've officially reached the semifinals of the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff and there are only a few surprises for the teams that are left standing.
Texas and Ohio State will battle in the Cotton Bowl while Penn State and Notre Dame will do battle in the Orange Bowl. The winner of the two games will advance to the college football national championship, which will be played in Atlanta.
As we look ahead to the matchups, one would have to think that these are four coaches with some of the strongest job security in the sport. They've navigated their team to a final four appearance and they've also racked up some hardware along the way. However, if there's one thing we know about college football, it's that the landscape is everchanging, which brings us to this topic.
Odds are, one of these coaches will have not have a clean break with their respective school when it's all said and done. It might be years from now, but the pure statistics tell us that we will most likely see a coach who has seen a lot of success falter at some point, and for one, that could be sooner than the others.
So, which coach is the most likely to be fired — not in the immediate future, but at some point down the road — even after leading their school on a long playoff run? Well, the answer is pretty simple: Ryan Day.
Before Ohio State's dominant run through Tennessee and Oregon in the College Football Playoff, there were Buckeye fans ready to run him out of Columbus. Day has lost four-straight to his bitter rival, Michigan, and there were national analysts under the belief that Day would need a deep playoff run to keep his job at Ohio State. Now, whether that's true or not is another story.
Now, Ohio State stands atop the college football world. The Buckeyes are considered the favorites to win the national championship and they unstoppable.
Can you imagine, though, what would happen in Columbus if they lost to Texas? Or, can you imagine the fallout if the Buckeyes — who are losing a ton of talent after this year — were to lose to conference foe Penn State for the national title? There would be an uproar, no doubt.
Would it be enough to cost Ryan Day his job? Absolutely not. But, it could still serve as fuel for the fire down the road.
Imagine Ohio State doesn't win the national title this year with the "highest-paid roster in the country." Then, imagine next year that Michigan is back to competing in the Big Ten and Day lost again, this time in Ann Arbor to the Buckeyes' hated foe. How would that go over with the natives? We're not convinced they wouldn't cut ties right then and there.
The truth is that, even with a deep playoff run, if Ohio State comes up short, Day will be talked about this offseason. He shouldn't lose his job — and he most certainly won't — but one could see how a failed playoff run this season — especially after the potential we've seen from this team in the first two games — could serve as the catalyst for a firing down the road if Day were to have a down year and lose to Michigan yet again.
James Franklin is cemented at Penn State. Steve Sarkisian has a long leash at Texas. Notre Dame's Marcus Freeman isn't going anywhere, but Ryan Day still seems like a different story.
It sounds crazy considering what we've seen the last two games, but one could still argue that Day is feeling the pressure. The heat has been turned down for the time being and, to be clear, he's not going anywhere.
But, you have to think that a failed run here in January could put him right back where he was at the end of November to start the 2025 season.