While the Big Ten doesn't have an official preseason poll, Cleveland.com polled the media members ahead of Big Ten Media Days and some of the expectations are surprising but fairly evaluated. The newcomers to the conference, outside of Oregon, seem to have another frustrating season in store for them. This goes for the USC Trojans who had such high expectations over the last few years getting the hottest coach on the market in Lincoln Riley.
Things haven’t gone according to plan. This year's preseason poll has the Trojans projected to finish in ninth which won’t cut it for this team. Time is wearing out but what can USC do if this continues to get worse. Let’s take a look at the situation:
Falling Performance & Missed Opportunities:
Following a dazzling 2022 opening, USC has regressed: 8–5 in 2023 and 7–6 in 2024. This is not clearly up to the USC standard and especially with how well Lincoln Riley did in Oklahoma winning multiple Big 12 titles.
In several “win-ready” games (Michigan, Notre Dame, Penn State), USC has collapsed late highlighting Riley’s struggle in critical moments. Despite showing signs they can compete, losses are losses and this program needs to take that next step after swinging and missing more than not over the last few years.
Questionable Coaching Decisions:
Late-game play calling has drawn criticism; instead of safe, possession-heavy plans, Riley often opts for risky pass plays and misuses timeouts. This has been a reoccurring issue with Riley and it seems to have taken a toll on him putting immense amount of pressure to make it right. Penalties, poor gap discipline, and inconsistency persist — symptoms analysts attribute to weak coaching oversight. Poor discipline on a team is a direct reflection on the head coach not holding his players to a certain standard and practicing how you’re supposed to play.
Offense vs. Defense Disparity:
USC’s traditionally potent offense ranks below its defense—a flip from Riley’s tenure at Oklahoma. Defense has been a mess for this team over the years even during his first year with the team when they almost made the CFP. Defense wins championships although offense can win games. What is Coach Riley in it for though? The answer is championships in such a big time market in a plague for success.
Critics say recent quarterback play and schematic approach haven’t adapted well to Big Ten styles and aren’t being masked as they were before by the talent of Caleb Williams. Analysts argue that the transition from PAC 12 to Big 10 is a bigger issue than others seem to believe. Big 10 football is more physical with better defense whereas in the PAC 12 you could get away in shootouts rather than slugfests
Recruiting and Talent Base:
Local recruiting, especially for high-impact offensive linemen and skill players, has fallen short. They’ve only come alive this past year with the new GM in charge. They got Chad Bowden from Notre Dame and it has been a good signing for right now. Before him, the recruiting was on the decline despite everyone lauding Riley’s ability to recruit in Oklahoma.
Despite NIL budget increases and facility upgrades, USC hasn’t kept pace with peer programs, limiting roster depth. They have the big market and NIL money that should make them a clear destination for top talent. What has been the issue in previous seasons? Hopefully GM Bowden can be the answer they were looking for.
Why USC is Stuck With Him—for Now:
Lincoln Riley has a buyout estimated between $80–$100 million, meaning that Riley is financially untouchable. USC would have to pay double the salary if they did want to move on from him for someone else so it doesn’t seem to be worth it. Hoping he can right the ship is in USC’s best interest.
Institutional Constraints: USC’s broader financial tightness and commitment to Riley’s long-term vision suggests they won’t pull the plug mid-contract. They will have to tough it out and hope last year was just a transition year for a different conference getting their feet under them.
Signs of Adjustment:
Defensive Boost: The hiring of D’Anton Lynn has improved defensive discipline and performance—though big deficiencies remain. Lynn is from UCLA and also has previous NFL experience. If he’s the answer for defensive personnel than this would be a huge get for USC to turn those close losses into wins.
QB Shakeup: Switching from Miller Moss to Jayden Maiava shows Riley’s willingness to adapt positionally. Riley knows the time is now so he will make any changes necessary to make sure he feels like the team is set up best for success to win.
Leadership Tweaks: Implementing weekly captaincy and a leadership council reflects an attempt to inject internal accountability.
Still, most analysts argue these moves are tweaks—not fundamental repairs. Without substantial structural change, particularly at offensive coaching and late-game management, the current plan may lead to an inevitable downhill spiral.
Summary:
USC is caught in a bind. Between Riley’s contract that shields him, the on-field results, late-game woes, and inconsistent development could spell disaster for the USC Trojans. While defensive improvements and QB rotations are promising, there can only be so many changes that can be made. Riley’s shortcomings in situational strategy, recruiting, and coaching adjustments remain inadequately addressed. The buyout forces USC to wait out this season, but the pressure for a turnaround in 2025 is unmistakable.