The Path to the 12-team College Football Playoff Week 10: James Franklin comes up small… again

Week 10 was a week of let downs across college football. Not just for James Franklin’s Penn State Nittany Lions in another big game, but for the five ranked team that lost to unranked teams, including two conference leaders. Both Iowa State and Texas A&M came into Week 10 with the inside track to a top-four spot in the 12-team College Football Playoff, but both had major let downs. In total, seven ranked teams went down just three days before the first College Football Playoff rankings of the season, the most important thing happening in the country on Tuesday. 

Just as soon as the CFP picture started to crystallize, we got a swift reminder that in this sport, chaos reigns supreme. So, let’s sort it all out in a week of big losses and figure out which teams are knocked out of the CFP picture and which teams still have a fighting chance. No time for the fun categories this week, too many losses. No time for jokes or bad puns (well maybe just a few), too many losses. And absolutely no time for breaking down Tennessee’s ugly offense in another close win, because, say it with me, too many losses. But before we get to the losses, we have to give Ryan Day his flowers. Let’s jump right into the biggest win of the week. 

The Statements

The biggest wins of Week 10

1. Ohio State’s $20 million roster pays off

Tired of losing to Michigan the past three years, Ohio State rallied its deep pocket boosters and assembled a $20 million dollar roster for the 2024 season and decided on Kansas State transfer quarterback Will Howard to lead it. Howard is a Pennsylvania native with a long memory and a chip on his shoulder and despite costing his No. 4 ranked Buckeyes 14 points at Beaver Stadium, Ohio State hung on for a 20-13 win over the No. 3 Penn State Nittany Lions. 

Howard’s first pass attempt of the day was picked off by Penn State cornerback Zion Tracy and returned for a touchdown and later in the first half after Ohio State answered a Penn State 10-0 start with 14-straight points of their own, Howard fumbled through the end zone for a touchback. The fifth-year senior threw two touchdowns and closed out the win with his legs after a fourth-quarter goalline stand by his defense preserved a seven-point lead, but he was far from the reason Ryan Day got a signature road win and kept his team’s Big Ten title hopes alive. 

The Buckeyes completely outclassed the Nittany Lions all over the field. Coming into the week, there were major concerns about Ohio State’s offensive line after injuries to starting left tackle Josh Simmons and backup left tackle Zen Michalski, and Penn State defensive end Abdul Carter exposed All-American guard Donovan Jackson in his first career start at left tackle, recording four pressures and two huge sacks, but unlike last week against Nebraska, the Buckeyes were able to run the ball well. 

Ohio State posted a 43% rushing success rate in the game and running back QuinShon Judkins racked up 70 of his 95 rushing yards on rushes to the right side. Chip Kelly schemed around his weak left side of the line well, giving Carter constant traffic to navigate with tight ends, running backs, and bunch formations to his side, buying time to take shots downfield. 

Plus, the talent discrepancy between Ohio State’s pass-catchers and Penn State’s secondary was significant enough that Howard was able to get the ball out of his hands quickly. On the other side of the gap was even wider between the two programs which resulted in two trips inside the five-yard line for Penn State and zero points from them. Though, we’ll get into that later. 

No program had more urgency to win this offseason than Ohio State and even if the Buckeyes didn’t land one of the best quarterbacks in the country, they proved that this $20 million roster can beat just about anybody, regardless of Howard’s play. 

2. Miami goes nuclear in the second half

We all know that Miami’s offense is good, but the Hurricanes reached category five in the second half against Duke on Saturday. After trailing 21-17 at halftime, Cam Ward led No. 5 Miami to a 53-31 win to reach 9-0 and 5-0 in ACC play. 

Ward torched former Miami head coach Manny Diaz’s defense in his first revenge game with Duke. Still, Miami could probably use Diaz to run its defense because the Canes cannot get a stop and relied on four Duke turnovers to get off the field because they were allowing 7.9 yards per play. Those defensive issues just may not matter because Ward is more than comfortable winning a shootout and has the receivers to do it. 

The Heisman Trophy candidate finished with 400 passing yards and five touchdowns, three of which went to Xavier Restrepo. After his eight-catch, 146-yard, three-TD performance, Restrepo is now Miami’s all-time leader in career receptions and receiving yards. 

Yeah, Miami, you know, the program that Santana Moss, Reggie Wayne, and Michael Irvin all played for. The 5-foot-10 fifth-year senior could be the most underrated wide receiver in the country and Jacolby George, Isaiah Horton, and Sam Brown Jr. round out the best-receiving corps in the game. That’s without even mentioning a backfield tandem of Damien Martinez and Mark Fletcher Jr. that is the perfect physical compliment to Ward's fearless downfield attack.

Miami doesn’t play in the SEC, so offense is a bit easier to come by, and it’s way too early to make comparisons to these offenses. But what if it’s not? Miami’s quick-strike ability can't be found anywhere else in college football right now and it means they’re never out of any game, the defense just makes sure they never let their foot off the gas either. 

The death penalty

They may not be mathematically eliminated, but with a loss this week, these teams are no longer CFP contenders. 

3. Kansas State lets Houston storm back

With a dual-threat quarterback and star running back DJ Giddens, No. 17 Kansas State theoretically has the perfect offense for a rainy day, but they managed just 19 points in a 24-19 loss to Willie Fritz’s Houston Cougars. At 7-2 with conference losses to the Houston Cougars and the BYU Cougars, the Wildcats are essentially eliminated from Big 12 Championship contention and have no shot of an at-large bid. 

Johnson’s athleticism may be unmatched among college football QBs, but the 6-foot-2, 192-pound sophomore is a reluctant scrambler, and Chris Klieman and offensive coordinator Conor Riley are hesitant to lean on his legs in the designed run game. Terrified defensive coordinators coach their ends and linebackers to force Johnson to give it on any option plays, and that’s led to a big year for Giddens, but on Saturday, Giddens finished with 50 yards on 17 carries, Johnson added just 18 on eight, and K-State produced zero explosive plays on the ground. 

Curating an offense around Johnson’s abilities as a downfield thrower is best for his development and preserving his long-term health. However, when you have a one-score lead in the second half against a three-win Houston team that’s 74th in yards per rush allowing this season with your CFP fate on the line, you have to hit the easy button that is Johnson’s rushing ability. Johnson threw two second-half interceptions and the Wildcats only managed one touchdown drive all game that wasn’t aided by a turnover and a short field. 

4. Pitt’s 15 minutes of CFP fame are over

Pitt relied heavily on five Kyle McCord turnovers to beat Syracuse in Week 9, get to 7-0, and enter the conversation as a potential CFP contender. So, when the Panthers didn’t happen upon any turnovers or multiple pick-sixes against an SMU team that beat Duke a week ago despite giving the ball away six times, their 15 minutes of CFP fame came to a swift end. 

The Pitt offense has been in a steady decline as the magic that Alabama transfer Eli Holstein and new offensive coordinator Kade Bell captured early in the year has gradually faded, but Pat Narduzzi’s defense that was flying around at Acrisure Stadium last Thursday spent most of its night chasing SMU ball carriers like it was the Pony Express. 

With SMU’s dominant 48-25 win in Dallas, which was never even that close, the Mustangs have the inside track to meet Miami in the ACC title game and are well-equipped for an old-fashioned shootout with the Canes. 

“I promise you one thing…”

With a 12-team CFP, one loss doesn’t end your season anymore, and two might not either

5. James Franklin still can’t get over the hump

After falling to Ohio State AGAIN, James Franklin is 1-10 against the Buckeyes across his 11 seasons in Happy Valley and is 1-14 against Top 5 teams. 11-1 will be more than enough to get the Nittany Lions into the 12-team CFP with an at-large bid, Franklin’s first trip to the CFP, but that hasn’t stopped fans from calling for his job. Penn State has clearly bumped its head on the ceiling AGAIN, but the big question is whether it's Franklin’s ceiling or the program’s. 

While it’s still a premier program, Penn State doesn’t have the facilities or NIL resources of Oregon or Ohio State. So, while Franklin keeps losing big games, he’s losing them as an underdog to superior teams and winning all the games he should. Georgia had the same problem with Mark Richt before replacing him with Kirby Smart, but Athens is situated in one of the greatest recruiting hotbeds in the country and the program has as deep pockets as any other. Franklin and Richt might be an apples-to-apples comparison, but it's like comparing Honeycrisp (great) to Red Delicious (not delicious). They’re a distinctly different quality of apple. 

Franklin’s biggest problem in Happy Valley lately, at least the biggest tangible on-field one, is the lack of talent at wide receiver, a premier position that costs a pretty penny in the transfer portal. The program’s lack of elite talent at the position was on display in last year’s Peach Bowl loss to Ole Miss when a Penn State wide receiver didn’t catch a pass until the fourth quarter, and it reappeared on Saturday. 

Ohio State cast-off Julian Fleming was the first wide receiver or tight end to catch a pass for the Nittany Lions and his first grab came with 1:15 left in the first half on a drive that ended with Ohio State cornerback Davison Igbinosun plucking a perfect throw from Allar right out of Harrison Wallace III’s hands in the end zone. 

Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles was able to play constant man coverage, allowing him to direct more resources to stopping the run and for the entire first half Drew Allar’s legs, coming off a knee injury, were the Nittany Lion’s best offense. 

To offset a consistent lack of talent outside, Franklin has targetted elite quarterbacks, landing Allar when he was the No. 1 QB in the 2022 class, and pairing him with a creative play-caller in Andy Kotelnicki. However, when Penn State had a chance to win the game in the fourth quarter on its final offensive drive, Kotelnicki called three straight runs up the middle for Kaytron Allen that were all stuffed, before a predictable fourth-down pass that sailed incomplete. 

6. Welp, there goes first place in the SEC

After its Week 9 win over LSU, Texas A&M was the final remaining unbeaten in the SEC, and it only took one week and a trip to Columbia, South Carolina for Mike Elko’s Aggies to get clipped too. Shane Beamer’s Gamecocks have nearly taken out LSU and Alabama this season, but this time they finished the deal with a 44-20 win. 

Without a surprise attack off the bench, South Carolina was prepared for A&M quarterback Marcel Reed and his rushing ability and held him relatively in check. It didn’t help that the team’s leading rusher Le’Veon Moss was carted off with a knee injury, but the Aggies only generated a 36% success rate on the ground after topping out at 47% with seven explosive plays against LSU last week. However, the biggest difference was on the other side of the ball. 

There are very few teams in the country that have seen a pass-rush like A&M’s because there are very few teams in the country that have a pass-rush like A&M’s, but LaNorris Sellers sees it every day in practice because dude for dude along the defensive line, the Gamecocks can match the Aggies. So, while the constant pressure on Garrett Nussmeier a week ago, led LSU’s pocket-passer to three interceptions and two sacks, Sellers never made the big mistakes. 

South Carolina’s 6-foot-3 242-pound redshirt freshman QB was under the same unceasing pressure that Nussmeier was, but it never got to him, literally. For just the second time this season (vs. McNeese) A&M failed to record a sack and Sellers finished with 106 rushing yards, with much of that coming as a scrambler. 

South Carolina was able to neutralize A&M’s pass rush by attacking it, and using the quarterback in the run game, as Notre Dame did with Riley Leonard in Week 1, A&M’s only other loss, takes away the defense’s numbers advantage. Despite Texas A&M boasting an elite run defense, Sellers and Leonard averaged a greater EPA/play as a rusher than as a passer.  The Gamecocks averaged 6.7 yards per carry and running back Rocket Sanders was a huge beneficiary of the threat of Sellers in the run game. 

Texas A&M could still make the SEC title game with one loss, but it’ll come down to beating Texas in the final week of the regular season and hoping tie-breakers between the other potential one-loss teams go its way. That game is a few weeks away, but Steve Sarkisian may want to consider working Arch Manning into the game plan because he can threaten the A&M defensive line as a runner and a scrambler in a way that Quinn Ewers just can’t. 

7. Cade Klubnik’s old habits die hard

In 2023, Cade Klubnik’s first as Dabo Swinney’s full-time starting quarterback and offensive coordinator Garrett Riley’s first in Clemson, the Tigers couldn’t take the top off the defense, and they didn’t even try. Klubnik’s average depth of target was just 7.0 yards downfield and his offense finished 109th in the country with just 30 passing plays of 20+ yards. 

Last season, Klubnik and Riley were content to march down the field with five and six-yard gains. This year, the Tigers came into Week 10 with 32 20+ yard passing plays and Klubnik with an ADOT around 10. However, in Clemson’s 33-21 loss to Louisville in Death Valley, Jeff Brohm’s Cardinals dared Klubnik and Riley to fall back into their old ways and the second-year duo took the bait. 

Klubnik averaged just 4.1 yards on his 56 attempts and his longest completion was just 22 yards. Defensively, Louisville lived in a two-deep shell, allowed short completions and Phil Mafah to run for 171 yards and a touchdown on 31 carries. However, the Clemson passing offense managed a 3% explosive play rate, down from 9.1% from the season and even worse than last season’s 7% explosive pass rate. Clemson didn’t consistently protect Klubnik well enough to take deep shots, but even when the offensive line did hold up, Riley didn’t call them and Klubnik didn’t take them. 

No two-loss ACC team will be in the CFP at-large picture, so Clemson’s only path to the playoff now is winning the conference title. With Miami and SMU still unbeaten in ACC play, that’s an uphill climb. It’s not officially over for Dabo yet, but it very well could be. 

8. Big 12 cannibalism comes from the Cyclones

As part of the conference’s PR damage control after losing Oklahoma and Texas to the SEC, Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark called the Big 12 “the deepest conference in America” and proclaimed that “every week will matter.” 

In a way, he got his wish. Anybody can beat anybody in the Big 12, but as far as the CFP goes, that’s not a good thing. In Week 10 No. 17 Kansas State fell to Houston and No. 11 Iowa State fell to 7-1 with a 23-22 loss to Texas Tech. Unless No. 8 BYU, which was one a bye, runs the table with wins over Utah, Kansas, Arizona State, Houston, and possibly Iowa State or Colorado in the Big 12 title game, then one-loss Boise State could realistically be the fourth-highest ranked conference champion and claim the four-seed in the CFP. 

Matt Campbell’s Cyclones aren’t out of the conference title race with this loss and there aren’t any glaring concerns about the way they played. The defense still forced two turnovers and Rocco Becht nearly won the game with another heroic fourth-quarter drive. Texas Tech just answered with a late score because Iowa State had no answer for wide receiver Josh Kelly. 

I can’t say with any confidence which team is going to win the Big 12, but I can say with certainty that the national champion, won’t come out of the “deepest conference in America.”

And the Week 10 Heisman goes to…

9. Ole Miss QB: Jaxson Dart

Similar to Ohio State’s Will Howard, Jaxson Dart put some unneeded pressure on himself heading into Week 10, though he did it in a much more interesting way. 

After what appeared to be a Thursday night out in Oxford dressed as Lloyd Christmas from Dumb and Dumber for Halloween, Dart made the Arkansas Razorbacks look dumb on Saturday afternoon. Dart completed 25 of his modest 31 attempts for a staggering 507 yards and six touchdowns in Ole Miss’s 63-31 win and he did it without his No. 1 receiver Tre Harris. Though Jordan Watkins filled in nicely as WR1 with eight grabs for 254 yards and five scores. 

Lane Kiffin had to sacrifice star running back QuinShon Judkins to Ohio State to have the NIL dollars for his elite transfer portal haul, and after Henry Parrish Jr. who transferred back to Ole Miss from Miami this offseason, went down with an injury in the first half, Dart was the Rebel’s leading rusher with 47 yards on 10 carries. 

I’ve already given Ole Miss the death penalty, and for the most part, I’m holding firm to that. But the combination of Georgia’s struggles with Florida in Week 10 and Dart’s Johnny Manziel impression on Halloween weekend to get the Rebels to 7-2 with the Dawgs heading to Oxford next week, has cracked the door open for Kiffin’s team to play themselves back into the CFP picture. 

Play the fight song!

Whether by a great play-call or just a great play, the week’s most exciting and important touchdowns

10. Georgia’s gator-chomping freshman

Georgia freshman running back Nate Frazier two touchdowns on the season, but he makes them count with the Georgia fanbase. After his first trip to the end zone in Week 1, he paid homage to Bulldog legends Todd Gurley and Sony Michel with his two-part celebration and tying up the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party with a second-half touchdown, Frazier got a full 15-yard penalty worth with a gator chomp. 

Carson Beck struggled again, throwing three interceptions in his second-straight game, and the Georgia offense was lacking for playmakers once Florida transfer Trevor Etienne left the game with an injury. As Frazier continues to come along, he’ll be a crucial weapon for the Dawgs down the stretch in the SEC, especially if their offensive struggles persist, and over the next few years, they’ll play the fight song quite a bit for Frazier. 

11. Coach Cigs has QB1 throwing darts

Kurtis Rourke returned from his thumb injury for Indiana’s Week 10 trip to East Lansing, and after back-to-back three-and-outs, the Hoosiers trailed Michigan State 10-0. It was the first time Indiana trailed this season, and Curt Cignetti’s now 9-0 Hoosiers responded with 47 unanswered points. 

After shaking off the rust, Rourke went 19/29 for 263 yards and four touchdowns. 100% or not, if you give this sixth-year dart thrower a one-on-one in the red zone, you can play the fight song. Rourke is only the second Big Ten quarterback since 2000 to throw three or more touchdowns in their first three Big Ten road games, joining Justin Fields in 2020. A classic overly specific stat that you only find in college sports, but still pretty impressive. 

UCF 2017 National Championship Memorial Group of Five Team of the Week

12. Army Black Knights

In four of Army’s last five games prior to Week 10, quarterback Bryson Daily threw for over 100 yards. However, the leading rusher among quarterbacks in the country was sidelined on Saturday, and once again the Black Knights became a one-dimensional triple-option team. Still, Dewayne Coleman led Army to a 20-3 win over Air Force. 

Coleman completed five of six passes for 48 yards and Army generated just one explosive play in the passing game. It entered the game 98th percentile in explosive pass rate. Coleman also finished with a 20% success rate as a rusher, but Kanye Udoh ran for 168 yards and two scores on 22 carries in the win. Army needs Daily healthy to reach the CFP, but with North Texas next week and a bye after, he may be able to steal two more weeks of recovery before playing Notre Dame.