The Path to the 12-team College Football Playoff Week 7: Dan Lanning has his big win

When the schedule was released for the newly expanded 18-team Big Ten West-less Big Ten conference, everybody circled Ohio State’s Week 7 trip to Eugene. With the Buckeyes at No. 2 and the Oregon Ducks at No. 3, the marquee matchup lived up to all of the expectations. Though that wasn’t the only massive game that came down to the final seconds in Week 7, it wasn’t even the only one in the Big Ten. 

No. 4 Penn State and USC went to overtime at the LA Coliseum and so did No. 9 Ole Miss and No. 13 LSU in Death Valley. With all that chaos, it’s easy to forget about the Red River Rivalry, unless you’re an Oklahoma fan, then you’ll replay the 120th meeting between the Longhorns and Sooners over and over in your nightmares. At least until next year’s Texas State Fair.

We’re through seven weeks of college football and we’re finally separating the real contenders from the rest of the pack, oh, and then there’s the Big 12. That conference is going to crown a champion in early December and I still won’t know if that team is any good. For the conferences that do make sense, I’ve done my best to bring you the most important things that happened in college football Week 7.

The Statements

The biggest wins of Week 5

1. Finally, Dan Lanning has his big win

Since Dan Lanning took over at Oregon in 2022, he has gone a remarkable 28-5, including his team’s 32-31 win over No. 2 Ohio State on Saturday night in Eugene. However, before Saturday night, Lanning was just 2-3 against Top-10 ranked opponents with both of his wins coming in 2022 against No. 9 UCLA and No. 10 Utah. Lanning’s 2023 season was entirely defined by his two losses to Washington, in the regular season and the Pac-12 Championship Game, but in 2024, with a new conference foe, Lanning finally got his marquee victory. 

Lanning’s game management became a big question after that regular season loss to the Huskies. He went for it on three crucial fourth downs and failed to convert on them all, including the final one that set up Washington’s game-winning touchdown drive from right around the 50-yard line. Well, Lanning, to his credit, stayed aggressive, attempting a two-point conversion (which failed), going for it on fourth down twice in the third quarter (1-2), but most importantly he pulled off a successful surprise onside kick to steal a possession and the lead in the first half. 

Day, on the other hand, allowed time to melt away on Ohio State’s final possession, and his fifth-year senior quarterback slid down as time expired to secure Oregon’s 32-31 win. Lanning’s offensive coordinator Will Stein developed an excellent plan to attack Ohio State’s vaunted secondary down the field, leading to four explosive plays in the passing game and 341 yards through the air for Gabriel. Lanning’s defense was dominant on third down, even without its best pass rusher Jordan Burch, who missed the game with an injury, holding Ohio State to 4/12. 

Late-game and late-down execution told the story of this top-three matchup, and the better-coached team came out on top. On those late-down plays, both teams had very similar success rates, but Stein and Lanning continued to attack downfield like on Gabriel’s 48-yard touchdown pass to Tez Johnson on third-and-9 or his 32-yard completion to Terrance Ferguson on fourth-and-1. 

Now that Dillon Gabriel and the Ducks outlasted Ryan Day’s Buckeyes, we can begin to seriously discuss Lanning as one of the best coaches in college football and that conversation is long overdue. 

2. LSU is back from the dead

It does appear that I spoke too soon. I wrote off the LSU Tigers after their questionable start to the season and even declared them dead after beating South Carolina in Week 3. While my assessment of the Tigers hasn’t changed, they still cannot run the ball and I seriously question their ability to get consistent stops on defense, my assessment of their competition in the SEC, has. 

Texas is the only unbeaten team in the conference, 6-0 after knocking off Oklahoma in Week 7, and every other contender, 5-1 Georgia, 5-1 Alabama, 5-1 Tennessee, and 5-1 Texas A&M, has shown just as many flaws as Brian Kelly’s Tigers have. Georgia struggles to run the ball and Carson Beck has become a turnover machine, Alabama’s linebackers and safeties can’t cover, Nico Iamaleava is submarining Tennessee’s season, and Texas A&M isn’t built to play from behind.

That’s without mentioning that Ole Miss, courtesy of LSU, and Missouri have essentially been wiped out of contention completely. Even on Saturday in Brian Kelly’s biggest win at LSU since beating Alabama in 2022, The Tigers rushed for 84 total yards and needed Garrett Nussmeier to throw it 51 times to take down the No. 9 ranked Rebels 29-26 in overtime.. Nussmeier wasn’t even that great, completing only 22 of those passes, but the veteran LSU quarterback took so many deep shots that he finished with 337 yards and three touchdowns, enough to offset his two interceptions. 

Nussmeier was LSU’s only hope to move the ball down the field, so Kelly and offensive coordinator Joe Sloan leaned on their 22-year-old first-year starter and he paid off their faith with an incredible fourth-quarter comeback. Nussmeier was nails, throwing back-to-back touchdowns on his final two passes of the game, the tying score at the end of regulation, and the game-winning in OT. 

The comeback was incredible and gives LSU life, but the Tigers have a 39.1% rushing success rate and in Week 7 on non-explosive plays, generated -0.36 expected points added (EPA) per play. Nothing about this team is sustainable, so I don’t expect the Tigers to make the CFP, but the struggles of the rest of the SEC have forced me to bring LSU back from the dead. 

The death penalty

They may not be mathematically eliminated, but with a loss this week, these teams are no longer CFP contenders. 

3. No Lane Kiffin, this isn’t your year either

Lane Kiffin is in his fifth year in Oxford and miraculously his 13th year as a college football head coach between Tennessee, USC, FAU, and Ole Miss. After winning 11 games at a power conference school for the first time in his career last season, Kiffin went all in, loading up on the defensive side of the football in the transfer portal to support his returning quarterback Jaxson Dart and elite receiver Tre Harris. Well, after Saturday night’s 29-26 overtime loss to No. 13 LSU, we can officially say that this year isn’t going to be his year either. 

No. 9 Ole Miss fell to 5-2 with the loss, all but eliminated from CFP contention and the loss came because of the same problem the Rebels had two weeks ago in their 20-17 loss to Kentucky. They couldn’t block. 

Nearly all of Kiffin’s offseason additions were to build a real SEC team in the trenches, but then LSU, without its best defensive player Harold Perkins Jr. who is out for the year, generated constant pressure, sacked Dart six times, and finished with five tackles for loss. Neither team had much success on the ground, though LSU’s struggles were a bit more pronounced, so it came down to Kiffin asking everything of his quarterback, and a defense that couldn’t get the big stop. 

This was supposed to be the year, and when it came time to win the game, Kiffin, who is as boisterous as anybody in the sport, turtled. Ahead 20-16 with just under four minutes left in regulation, Kiffin faced a third-and-9 at the LSU 23 and ran with Ulysses Bentley IV, a justifiable play call if you intend to go for it on fourth down or have a trustworthy defense. Instead, Ole Miss kicked the field goal and Kiffin watched helplessly as Garrett Nussmeier marched the Tigers 75 yards on 13 plays and tied the game with a 23-yard touchdown on fourth-and-5. Then in overtime, after Ole Miss had to settle for a 57-yard field goal, Nussmeier and Kyren Lacy delivered the knockout punch on the first play. 

On the broadcast, the ESPN analytics said to kick the field goal and that was probably the right thing to do. Dart had been less than spectacular all night and Harris, the nation’s leading receiver, had left the game with an injury, so again most coaches probably kick the field goal. My issue is more with the third-down run because that’s Kiffin playing for the field goal, not settling for it. It’s tough to square Kiffin’s persona with that type of conservative game management, especially this season. If there was ever a game to be hyper-aggressive, it was this game, in this year, because this was supposed to be “the year” and now “the year” may never come, at least not in Oxford. 

4. I see a bad Cam Rising, I see trouble on the way

With true freshman Isaac Wilson going 2-1 during Cam Rising’s absence for a hand injury, including a 23-10 loss to Arizona in Week 5, it seemed that the worst thing for Kyle Whittingham’s Utes would be not to get their 25-year-old quarterback back but Rising returning and playing as poorly as he did in Utah’s 27-19 Friday night loss to Arizona State in Tempe, was much worse. 

Whittingham has been up there alongside James Franklin and Mike Gundy as the most successful coaches of the CFP era without a playoff appearance. With a move to the Big 12 and the return of Rising after missing all of last season with a knee injury, this was supposed to be the year because of the quarterback. Now, because of the quarterback, the Utes are 4-2 and 1-2 in conference play, with BYU and Iowa State still looming on the schedule. 

Rising finished Friday night 16/37 for 209 yards with three interceptions. He attempted just three passes over 20 yards downfield and while he was only sacked once, he went 5/12 on his 13 pressured dropbacks for 70 yards with one of his three turnovers. By EPA per play, it was the fourth-worst performance of his career and his only game where he completed under 50% of his throws, which was aided by 5 drops. 

While he was awful playing with a glove on his injured right hand, Rising wasn’t the only problem for the Utes. Whittingham took over the Utah football program in 2004, and since then he’s built an identity of toughness and physicality in Salt Lake City. That same year, Kenny Dillingham, the 34-year-old second-year head coach of the Arizona State Sun Devils was 14. Yet, Dillingham’s team, which lost to Whittingham’s 55-3 a year ago in the Pac-12, was tougher, more physical, and road 215-pound running back Cam Skattebo for 158 yards and two touchdowns on 22 carries in the win. 

Arizona State is 5-1 after going 3-9 last season and with a 2-1 record in Big 12 play, has a very real chance to make the conference title game. That’s cause for the youngest head coach in college football to celebrate like a kid. 

Now, Whittingham faces a near-impossible decision. Look to the future with Wilson and bench Rising, who, after a two-year odyssey of injuries, finally feels healthy enough to play, or stick with your 25-year-old quarterback, who regardless of how he feels, didn’t look comfortable throwing a football on Friday night. It’d be easy for Whittingham to feel he owes it to Rising to finish out the season, but that’s probably not the best move from his program, especially if another loss follows. 

“I promise you one thing…”

5. Will Howard is still an upgrade

Dan Lanning didn’t just beat Ryan Day on Saturday, he beat him in the offseason, landing Dillon Gabriel, the veteran prize of the transfer portal quarterback market. Gabriel had to be the top priority of every quarterback-needy national championship contender and even after conversations with Day and the Ohio State coaching staff, the former Oklahoma Sooner left Norman for Eugene. 

Day had to turn his attention to Will Howard, who played well in their Week 7 meeting, completing 28 of his 35 passes for 326 yards and two touchdowns with nine carries for 13 yards and another score. Gabriel outplayed him, with 341 yards on 23/34 passing with two touchdowns and 32 yards with a rushing touchdown as well. Just because Howard couldn’t out-duel Gabriel, the preseason Heisman Trophy favorite who has started more college football games than any quarterback in the history of the sport doesn’t mean that Ohio State didn’t upgrade from Kyle McCord, the former five-star who is lighting up the ACC at Syracuse this year. 

Howard isn’t Gabriel, the former has been much worse under pressure this season and struggled when he wasn’t kept clean on Saturday, but he’s more than good enough to win a national championship with this loaded Ohio State roster. Now, assuming both parties handle their business, all the Buckeyes need to do is beat Penn State in Happy Valley to ensure a rematch with the Ducks. Considering the recent history there, Ohio State should feel confident. Ohio State still controls its own destiny in the Big Ten and that’s not a bad place to be with a 12 or even a four-team CFP. 

Welcome to the…

6. SEC, Red River

For the first time in the 124-year history of the Red River Rivalry, Texas and Oklahoma met as SEC foes. The 120th meeting between the Longhorns and Sooners went to Texas 34-3, a dominant win in Quinn Ewers's return for the No. 1 team in the country. Ewers finished 20/29 for 199 yards with one passing touchdown, one rushing touchdown, and an interception against the No. 19 Sooners, however, it wasn’t smooth sailing from the start. 

There were undoubtedly overreactive fans calling for Arch Manning after Ewers started the game 1/3 for three yards with a pick across Texas’s first three possessions. Hell, there were probably fans with selective amnesia who forgot how great Ewers was in Texas’s win over Michigan and wanted Manning to start this game. A worse coach, like Brent Venables, would have stoked the flames of an unnecessary quarterback controversy, but Steve Sarkisian trusted his senior and helped him shake off the rust after missing two games. 

On Texas’s fourth possession, down 3-0 after a borderline heroic 11-play 38-yard field goal drive by Oklahoma’s impotent offense, Sark leaned on the run game with Quintrevion Wisner and the screen game with tight end Gunnar Helm. Helm capped off the drive with a 7-yard touchdown grab and Ewers, after his 1/3 start, finished the half 10/12 for 107 yards and a touchdown. Just look how easy Sark made things for Ewers to get him into a rhythm:

There is no question, that Ewers is Texas’s quarterback, and that’s the way it should be. Manning is arguably the most exciting young quarterback from a 2023 crop that includes Tennessee’s Nico Iamaleava, Kansas State’s Avery Johnson, and did include Oklahoma’s Jackson Arnold before he was benched, and Manning was a superstar in Ewer’s 2.5-game absence. However, we’ve seen Iamaleava, Johnson, and certainly Arnold, all have serious growing pains as first-year starters, there’s no reason for Texas to subject itself to that with a national championship at stake. 

Texas’s win was an impressive one, but to me, a blowout was the expectation. Oklahoma has five of its top receivers injured and plenty of offensive line issues. Venables shouldn’t have burned his relationship with Arnold because no quarterback, and certainly not Michael Hawkins Jr. can save this team’s season. Red River is in the SEC now, but Venables failed to live up to his end of the rivalry this year, so Texas’s win isn’t a statement, and Oklahoma isn’t worthy of the Death Penalty, because, in my eyes, this team was dead on arrival. 

Escape hatch

These teams had some seriously close calls that could have knocked them out of the CFP conversation but managed to escape an upset alert. 

7. Alabama’s problems are far from fixed

Last week’s loss to Vanderbilt sent many Alabama fans into the attic or the basement in search of the panic button, something they haven’t needed since about 2007 when Nick Saban arrived. Sure, there was cause for concern, but the lack of response from Kalen DeBoer’s team at home against South Carolina in Week 7, is even more alarming. 

Vanderbilt’s win wasn’t a fluke, the way Diego Pavia had Bama’s linebackers and safeties in constant conflict with play-action and option runs was a blueprint that every play-caller who has to face the Crimson Tide defense the rest of the season can work off of. South Carolina did that, torching Justin Jefferson, Jihaad Campbell, and Deontae Lawson in coverage, but wisely, defensive coordinator Kane Wommack ratcheted up the pressure, blitzing on nearly half of LaNorris Sellers’ dropbacks. Linebackers can’t get caught in coverage and confused by misdirection if they’re just heading full speed at the quarterback anyway. 

That problem wasn’t fixed, but Wommack proved he knew the right dials to adjust. That’s not the reason why it could be time to seriously consider hitting the panic button. The offense is, specifically, the quarterback who seemingly had the Heisman Trophy wrapped up at halftime against Georgia. 

In the Rose Bowl last year, Michigan exposed Milroe’s biggest weakness, handling pressure and frankly, just making every pass rusher is accounted for before the snap. South Carolina has one of the best defensive lines in the country with two monsters off the edge Kyle Kennard and Dylan Stewart. Those have to be the first two names atop the scouting report for every team playing the Gamecocks, yet Kennard racked up a sack, four pressures, forced a safety, and was somehow left unblocked multiple times. 

When facing pressure, Milroe completed just one of six passes for 13 yards with no scramble yardage and he was sacked three times. A season ago, when Milroe felt the heat, his instinct was to hunt a deep shot, and his athletic hubris led to far too many sacks. It appeared that DeBoer had broken those bad habits because Milroe had been much more comfortable sitting in the pocket, until Week 7, when bad Milroe reappeared. He wasn’t holding onto the ball forever or refusing to give up on plays, but he was as ineffective as ever. if that’s the version who is playing quarterback in Tuscaloosa the rest of the season, the Tide are in serious trouble. 

Milroe led a game-winning touchdown drive with 1:54 left, but the drama didn’t end there. South Carolina answered with a six-play 75-yard touchdown drive in just over a minute, nearly tied it with a two-point conversion, and still almost won the game after recovering an onside kick. 

Not every defensive line is South Carolina’s, and Milroe still finished 16/23 for 173 yards, a touchdown, and added 72 yards and two touchdowns on the ground, but he’s turned the ball over twice in each of the past two weeks and needs to be near-perfect to paper over his defense’s flaws. For the first time this season, I’m starting to wonder if he actually can. 

8. If Graham Mertz stays healthy, Tennessee’s season might be over

With 7:18 left in the third quarter in Knoxville, Graham Mertz threw a 13-yard touchdown to tight end Arlis Boardingham to give his Florida Gators a 10-0 lead on the No. 8 Tennessee Volunteers. After the play, Mertz came up limping and didn’t return. The redshirt senior was 11/15 for 125 yards. 

Tennessee immediately responded with an 11-play touchdown drive. Then, true freshman quarterback DJ Lagway threw an interception on the first play of Florida’s next possession. The Vols started at the Florida 20-yard line and turned the short field into a field goal, 10-10. Tennessee took a fourth-quarter lead before Lagway eventually responded with a game-tying touchdown throw to Chimere Dike with 29 seconds left and sent the game to overtime. 

In OT, Florida missed a field goal, and Tennessee won it with a touchdown to keep its season alive. The chances of Josh Heupel’s team making the CFP would have disappeared with a loss, but even though the Vols survived, it’s hard to feel good about the state of things in Knoxville. The defense is still elite, it’s the offense, Heupel’s specialty, that’s been a disaster. 

Nico Iamaleava showed so much promise through Tennessee’s first four games, but in the past two weeks, all the excitement of the 6-foot-6 former five-star has worn off. Iamaleava only completed 16 of his 26 throws for 150 yards with an awful interception, three sacks, and two fumbles, one lost. He isn’t providing anything in the quarterback run game and the explosive passing game is nowhere to be found. Arkansas and Florida aren’t elite SEC defenses, but they’re SEC defenses nonetheless and Iamaleava hasn’t stood a chance. 

It’s hard to see any way for Heupel and his quarterback to buck this downward trend. He hasn’t been overly harassed in the backfield and he has a reliable run game with Dylan Sampson. The game just looks too fast for him and even when he sees it, he hasn’t been accurate. Tennessee escaped, but only for now. This is more than growing pains with Nico and it’s not going to get any easier because next Saturday is the third Saturday in October. 

And the Week 6 Heisman goes to…

9. Penn State tight end Tyler Warren

Penn State came into the 2024 season without a true No. 1 wide receiver. Harrison Wallace III has shown flashes, but tight end Tyler Warren has emerged as Drew Allar’s favorite pass catcher. Ohio State transfer Julian Fleming came through for Allar on two clutch fourth-down conversions during No. 4 Penn State’s game-tying touchdown drive at USC on Saturday afternoon, but Warren caught just about every other pass in the Nittany Lions 33-30 overtime win. 

Warren finished with 17 catches (which tied the record for the most ever by an FBS tight end) for 224 yards and a touchdown. The 6-foot-6 former high school quarterback has been offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki’s favorite toy in the Penn State offense. Warren has played tight end, wide receiver, running back, quarterback, and on Saturday center. 

He has 40 catches for 513 yards and four touchdowns with a touchdown run and a touchdown pass. He’s the best tight end in the country, and in a weird year without a true Heisman favorite at quarterback, why couldn’t he end the season with a trip to New York? 

I’m not saying Warren should or will win the award, only 10 tight ends in history have finished top 10 in Heisman Trophy voting and none since Ken McAfee finished third in 1977, but I am saying it’s hard to find 10 better players in the country this year. I’m certain nobody was better in Week 7. 

Play the fight song!

Whether by a great play-call or just a great play, the week’s most exciting and important touchdowns

10. Dabo’s double-pass

It felt like everybody was breaking out the double pass on Saturday. Penn State drew it up for Tyler Warren, Texas poured salt into the wound of its Red River win over Oklahoma with a double-pass up 27-3, and Clemson set the tone early in the day with a double-pass touchdown in its 49-14 win over Wake Forest. When you have the rare wide receiver like Antonio Williams, who can actually throw a decent ball downfield, all you need to do is get the defense to bite, and you can play the fight song. 

The Tigers are 5-1 and since their 34-3 Week 1 loss to Georgia, have outscored opponents 243-96. I still don’t believe Dabo can win another national championship without embracing the transfer portal at least a little bit, but this team can absolutely win the ACC. I’m sticking with Miami as my conference champ, but at this point, I expect to see Clemson in the 12-team CFP. 

11. I wasn’t sure a trick play was legal in Utah

Out of nowhere, the BYU Cougars are in first place in the Big 12. At 6-0 (3-0), Kalani Sitake’s team is tied with Iowa State atop the conference, and with wins over Kansas State and Arizona, 41-19 at home in Week 7, they have a clear-cut path to the CFP. Junior quarterback Jake Retzlaff is the biggest reason why, with 14 touchdowns to 5 interceptions he also leads the team in rushing. However, BYU’s biggest highlight of Saturday’s rout, came from another member of the offense making a throw. 

As I said, there were plenty of wide receivers and tight ends throwing passing on Saturday, but Parker Kingston delivered the best ball of anybody, completely across the field for a 33-yard touchdown. The Big 12 is wide open, so I’m done making proclamations about who will win this conference. All I know is that BYU is tons of fun, so I hope Retzlaff and the Cougs will be in the mix to the end. 

UCF 2017 National Championship Memorial Group of Five Team of the Week

12. The Boise State Broncos

This is simply our weekly Ashton Jeanty tracker. The otherwordly running back led No. 17 Boise State to a 28-7 win on the road in Hawaii with 217 yards and a touchdown on 31 carries. He now has 1,248 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns on the season. The list of things I'd rather do than try to tackle Ashton Jeanty gets longer every day and, at this point, might include tackling an actual bronco, both the horse and the car.