The Path to the 12-team College Football Playoff Week 9: Mike Elko worth the price of Jimbo Fisher’s buyout

Five days from Halloween, spooky season is upon us and that goes for college football too. In Week 9, a few of the best teams in the country, teams vying for not just conference titles but maybe even national titles, had a jump scare. Though, unlike your favorite character in any scary movie you’re breaking out this time of year, Ohio State, Penn State, Texas, and Kansas State made it out unscathed. 

Upset bids are scary, but there wasn’t anything more terrifying than what Texas A&M’s second-half offense did to LSU in a showdown of SEC unbeatens on Saturday night. In Week 9, the path to the 12-team College Football Playoff made an important stop in College Station with first place in the best conference in college football on the line. 

The Statements

The biggest wins of Week 9

1. The Aggies have their quarterback

In the biggest game of Week 1, Notre Dame beat Texas A&M 23-13 in a true slugfest at Kyle Field. Both teams had serious concerns on offense, but two months later in Week 9, the Fighting Irish dropped 51 on No. 24 Navy and the Aggies hung 38 on LSU with 31 in the second half. For Notre Dame, it took patience, allowing transfer quarterback Riley Leonard to grow into offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock’s system, but for A&M, it took a drastic change. 

After a sluggish first half behind Conner Weigman, who completed six of his 18 attempts for 64 yards, and following back-to-back three-and-outs to start the second half, Elko pulled the rip cord in the third quarter and went to redshirt freshman Marcel Reed. Reed led the Aggies to four touchdowns on his five possessions and a 38-23 win. The freshman started in place of an injured Weigman in wins over Florida, Bowling Green, and Arkansas, but Elko deferred to the veteran, which paid off against Missouri and Mississippi State. After this performance, Elko has the answer to his QB controversy, and there’s no debate about it. 

The dual-threat Reed attempted just two passes, completing both for 70 total yards, but he unlocked the offense with his legs, running the ball nine times for 62 yards and three touchdowns. He averaged 6.9 yards per carry and generated 0.86 expected points added (EPA)/carry. See if you can spot the exact moment that Reed entered the game. 

LSU was shell-shocked by Reed’s mobility, something they obviously hadn’t prepared for in the week leading up to this game. Blake Baker, the new defensive coordinator in Baton Rouge instills a downhill, attacking style in his units, which backfired against the misdirection of a read-option QB. Elko played the right card at exactly the right moment and to help the cause, his defense forced three second-half turnovers. 

In his first season replacing his former boss Jimbo Fisher, Elko has his Aggies leading the SEC and 5-0 in conference play for the first time since 1998 with just one ranked opponent (No. 5 Texas) remaining on the schedule. Sometimes, it pays to pay your bad head coach to go away, even if it costs about $77 million to do it. 

2. A full pack of Coach Cigs

On Saturday, ESPN College Gameday made its way to Bloomington, Indiana for the first time as 7-0 Indiana hosted 4-3 Washington. It may have been the biggest game in program history and Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers came into it without veteran transfer quarterback Kurtis Rourke. Rourke, who was out with an injured throwing hand, leads the country in yards per dropback, but the Hoosiers were fine without him. 

Indiana’s offense wasn’t nearly as dynamic with backup QB Tayven Jackson, managing just 312 total yards in the 31-17 win, but coach Cignetti showcased that his team is more than just a quarterback who can throw darts, IU has a full pack of Coach Cigs. The Hoosiers opened the scoring with cornerback D’Angelo Ponds returning an interception for a touchdown, then in the second quarter, Ponds’s second pick of Washington QB Will Rogers set up a two-play 46-yard touchdown drive. 

Then, early in the fourth quarter, with the Hoosiers up 24-14, senior wide receiver Myles Price put the game away with a 65-yard punt return that set up a 4-play 14-yard touchdown drive, capped off by a Jackson rushing touchdown. 

Indiana’s offense is a shell of itself without Rourke, only managing 4.52 yards per play with a 41% success rate, down 13.4% from their nation-best success rate for the season. The Hoosiers generated just two explosive plays on offense and none in the run game. With the lack of a vertical threat through the air, Washington loaded up to stop the rushing attack of Jackson and Justice Ellison grinding one of the most unstoppable offenses in the country to a halt. 

Yet, without an elite offense, Cignetti’s team cruised to a two-touchdown victory over one of the most competitive Big Ten opponents they’ve faced this season. The Hoosiers can survive against Michigan State and Michigan in Week 10 and 11 because Coach Cigs just wins, google him, but for the Hoosiers to have a shot against Ohio State, they need their starting quarterback healthy. 

“I promise you one thing…”

With a 12-team CFP, one loss doesn’t end your season anymore, and two might not either

3. Brian Kelly betrayed by his best player

LSU came into the season with a questionable defense and a non-existent run game led by the oft-injured John Emery Jr. and a true freshman Caden Durham. Impressively, the only positions to feel good about were the ones where they were replacing first-round NFL draft picks. Garrett Nussmeier has quite filled the shoes of 2023 Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels and Kyren Lacy isn’t Malik Nabers or Brian Thomas Jr. but the Tiger’s passing attack has still been lethal in 2024. 

Following LSU’s Week 7 comeback win over Ole Miss, Nussmeier became a dark horse for the Heisman and the darling of NFL draft evaluators. He was Brian Kelly’s most reliable commodity until he wasn’t. Nussmeier didn’t just throw three second-half interceptions in his own territory that led to 17 points, he threw three inexplicable second-half interceptions that cost his team any chance of winning this game and holding onto first place in the SEC. 

Nussmeier’s first pick may have been his worst, throwing a pop-up back over the middle of the field on third down while his defense was playing lights out, though his final turnover is stiff competition, and an errant snap on a field goal attempt that led to another turnover.

The 22-year-old quarterback was still just making his ninth career start and likely won’t play as poorly as he did while things unraveled on Saturday, again. I still believe in Nussmeier as an effective SEC QB and intriguing NFL prospect, but he’ll need an immediate bounce-back performance because if his defense couldn’t handle Marcel Reed’s rushing ability, I’m not sure how they’ll fare against Alabama and Jalen Milroe in Baton Rouge next week. 

Spooky season scares

4. Offensive line issues for Ohio State

Ohio State sealed a 21-17 home victory over the Nebraska Cornhuskers with a late interception of Dylan Raiola. The Nebraska freshman quarterback just missed a few too many throws to deliver a kill shot despite dragging his team to a 17-14 lead with 10:47 left in the game. However, the Huskers still had a chance to win this game because perhaps the most indispensable member of Ohio State’s loaded offense was lost for the season in the Buckeyes Week 7 loss to Oregon. 

On Ohio State’s bye week, it was announced that left tackle Josh Simmons would be out for the year with a knee injury, and that’s a big deal, especially with a matchup against Penn State in Happy Valley looming next week. Simmons’ replacement Zen Michalski struggled mightily all afternoon against Nebraska's defensive front, allowing four pressures on quarterback Will Howard. Howard was pressured on six of his 20 dropbacks, was sacked three times, and completed just one of his two attempts for five yards. For the season, he has struggled badly when defenses are able to speed him up. 

Former Ohio State quarterback Kyle McCord had similar issues when his protection lapsed, and that’s a big reason Ryan Day sent him packing to Syracuse this offseason. So, he can't love what he's seeing from Howard when the pocket breaks down.

To make matters worse, Michalski was carted off in the fourth quarter forcing All-American left guard Donovan Jackson to kick out to tackle for the final few possessions. At least Day and offensive coordinator Chip Kelly now have a week to prepare for Abdul Carter and Dani Dennis-Sutton, one of the best pass-rush duos in the country. 

After the loss to Oregon, it seemed likely we’d get a rematch in the Big Ten title game, but now that feels like less of a certainty. James Franklin is 1-9 against the Buckeyes, but on Saturday, Penn State will have its best chance to beat Ohio State since a one-point loss in 2018, if the Nittany Lions are healthy.

5. Not easy to win in Nashville

A trip to Nashville used to be an extra bye in the SEC, but Vanderbilt head coach Clark Lea made sure that wasn’t the case anymore. For everything Lea’s done rebuilding that program across the last four years, no decision was more important than bringing quarterback Diego Pavia from New Mexico State this offseason. Pavia was the star of the Commodore's upset win over Alabama and with No. 5 Texas in town on Saturday, he nearly did it again. 

Despite two interceptions, Pavia wouldn’t go away, outscoring Texas 14-6 in the second half and coming an onside kick away from having a chance to tie the game down 27-24 with 46 seconds left in the game. Texas recovered and held on for the win to get to 7-1, firmly in the SEC title game and CFP picture, but with lingering quarterback questions that Quinn Ewers just cannot put to rest. 

Ewers threw for 288 yards and three touchdowns but turned the ball over twice, leaving the door cracked for Arch Manning to play a meaningful role this season. For now, Texas should stick with Ewers, but the leash is getting shorter before Steve Sarkisian is forced to call in backup for Fansville’s favorite deputy. 

It’s still shocking, but we need to recalibrate our brains to competitive Vanderbilt because this may look like a poor performance by the Longhorns, but the reality is, with Pavia in town, any win in Nashville is a good win. 

6. No Drew Allar, no problem for Andy Kotelnicki and Penn State… yet

Penn State didn’t just face a 10-7 halftime deficit against the red-hot Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium on Saturday night, they faced it without their starting quarterback. Along with star defensive end Dani Dennis-Sutton and starting right tackle Anthony Donkoh, starting quarterback Drew Allar missed the second half in Madison with an apparent knee injury. Yet, the Nittany Lions outscored the Badgers 21-3 for a 28-13 win to get 7-0 and set up a top-5 matchup with Ohio State at Beaver Stadium next Saturday. 

Penn State’s first-year offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki thrived at Kansas with dual-threat QBs, Jalon Daniels and Jason Bean, but adapted to Allar as a pocket-passer and constructed one of the most efficient passing offenses in the country. While Allar still gives the Nittany Lions their best chance to win the Big Ten and compete in the CFP, Kotelnicki seemed very comfortable calling plays for backup athletic Beau Pribula. Pribula finished 11/13 for 98 yards and a touchdown with six carries for 28 yards on the ground. 

Pribula nearly matched Allar’s yards per dropback and brought an additional element to the run game, but it was an offense built to beat an inferior team, not one that can go shot-for-shot with the Buckeyes and their embarrassment of offensive riches. Kotelnicki had to provide Pribula with a bespoke passing game, scheming everything up with play-action, rollouts, misdirection, or all three, and leaning on shovel passes to Tyler Warren and the quick RPO passing game. Allar has the arm to attack all three levels of the field, inside and outside of the numbers, and the size to stand in the pocket against a pass-rush like Ohio State’s, if he’s healthy. 

Pribula could beat just about every team on Penn State’s schedule, just not the one he’ll have to face if Allar’s knee injury is serious. 

7. Sweet 16 in the Sunflower Showdown

The Kansas State Wildcats had beaten the Kansas Jayhawks 15 consecutive times, but win No. 16 didn’t come easy for the No. 16 team in the country. Down 27-26 with 3:54 left in the fourth quarter, the Wildcats forced a fumble, popping the ball out on a Jalon Daniels quarterback-keeper and recovered to prevent the Jayhawks from salting the final minutes away. 

Still, Kansas held the Wildcats to just 15 yards on their next seven plays, forcing Chris Tennant to make the 51-yard game-winning field goal. Even then, Kansas still had another chance before K-State finally got a stop on fourth down with 37 seconds left. 

Chris Klieman’s team was that close to letting a two-win Kansas team spoil their CFP hopes. Avery Johnson played like a star, throwing for 252 yards and two scores and rushing for 67 and another, but no team is trustworthy in this conference and the Wildcats aren’t an exception.

Don’t look now…

8. But the Pitt Panthers are 7-0. 

A season ago, Pitt missed on its quarterback in the transfer portal, a near-impossible mistake to overcome, and finished 3-9. But in 2024 with Alabama transfer Eli Holstein leading a new-look offense, the Panthers have been a high-scoring team under Pat Narduzzi. 

All the offense was likely making Narduzzi squirm, so Thursday night’s 41-13 win over Syracuse was surely a welcome sight for the 10-year head coach of the Panthers. Pitt forced former Ohio State quarterback Kyle McCord, now at Syracuse after Ryan Day grew tired of losing to Michigan, into five interceptions including two pick-sixes in the first half. Pitt pressured McCord on 25 of his 70 dropbacks and Narduzzi’s defense was flying around all night. 

The Panthers travel to Dallas to play SMU in Week 10 and will host Clemson in Week 12. If Pitt’s defense plays like this, the Panthers may not end up in the CFP, but they could spoil the ACC’s chances of being a two-bid league with Clemson and Miami currently on a collision course. 

And the Week 9 Heisman goes to…

9. Oregon quarterback, Dillon Gabriel… if you just watched the first half

Next to their showdown with Ohio State at Autzen Stadium in Week 7, Oregon’s toughest Big Ten test this season may have come on Saturday with No. 21 Illinois in town, and the Ducks hardly broke a sweat. Oregon stormed out to a 35-3 first-half lead, scoring touchdowns on five of their first six possessions of the game before settling for just three points the entire second half. 

Gabriel was locked in, deadly accurate, and always keeping his eyes downfield as he used his legs to buy time whenever he wasn’t making lightning-quick decisions in the pocket. He accounted for four of those five scores, throwing three and running in another, his fifth rushing touchdown of the season. In the first half, Gabriel went 16/20 for 246 yards and three touchdowns and after halftime, he completed just two passes for 45 yards. Oregon took the foot off the gas completely, a justifiable decision with an elite defense holding Illinois completely in check, but one that could hurt Gabriel’s season-long Heisman chances. 

The sixth-year quarterback has already started the most games in college football history, but on Saturday he passed fellow lefty Kellen Moore for the second-most passing touchdowns all-time, with Case Keenum’s record of 155 firmly in his sights. If there was such a thing as a career-achievement Heisman, like when The Academy gave Martin Scorcese Best Picture for The Departed when it may not be one of his five best movies (the rat at the end of the movie represented a rat… get it?), then Gabriel should get one, though this is clearly one of his five best seasons of college football (isn’t it crazy that there’s one that isn’t?). 

Play the fight song!

Whether by a great play-call or just a great play, the week’s most exciting and important touchdowns

10. No triple-option for defense

Historically, the service academies have run the triple-option offense because the unique look it gives defenses helps to level the playing field because it’s not very easy to recruit the best athletes in the country to West Point or Annapolis and a military career. However, there isn’t a triple-option for defense and the difference in athletes between Navy and Notre Dame showed up at Metlife Stadium today and made a busy afternoon for the Notre Dame band.

The Fighting Irish rolled to a 51-14 win, aided by four Navy turnovers, but even without recovering four fumbles, Notre Dame would have still scored with ease. The Irish produced 0.29 EPA/play with a 52% success rate and running back Jeremiyah Love went for 102 yards on just 12 carries. After a sluggish start under new/former offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock, who returned to South Bend from LSU this offseason, the Irish are hitting their stride and will be a scary first-round CFP draw for any team. 

11. Jalen Milroe finally gets some help on the ground

Since SEC play began for Alabama in Week 5 against Georgia, running backs Justice Haynes and Jam Miller had managed just one combined explosive run, Miller’s 32-yard carry against Vanderbilt in Week 6. There’s no way that Kalen DeBoer and offensive coordinator Nick Sheridan expected to have to run Jalen Milroe as much as they have so far this season but in Bama’s 34-0 Week 9 win over Missouri (still inexplicably ranked at No. 21 in the country), their star quarterback finally got some help.

Milroe still carried the ball 11 times for 50 yards and a score, but Justice Haynes led the team in rushing with 79 yards on eight attempts and one fight song after that violent run. Haynes had two 15+ yard rushes himself, and if he can take pressure off Milroe, the Crimson Tide can still run the table to the CFP. 

UCF 2017 National Championship Memorial Group of Five Team of the Week

12. Boise State is more than just Jeanty

UNLV was the first team this season to keep Ashton Jeanty in check. Barry Odom’s Rebels held the Heisman Trophy favorite to just 128 yards and one touchdown on 33 carries. Jeanty only managed 3.9 yards per carry and for the first time this season generated a negative EPA/play, yet the Broncos still took a 29-24 win over UNLV, the top contender in the Mountain West, on the road in Vegas on Friday night. 

Quarterback Maddux Madsen, who beat out former five-star USC transfer Malachi Nelson for the starting job at Boise State this fall, threw for 209 yards and a touchdown and ran for another. Though, when the Broncos needed Jeanty, facing fourth-and-goal from the one-yard line down 24-23 early in the fourth quarter, he broke through for the score, and then he helped to milk the final 8:07 off the clock on a 14-play 48-yard drive that ended in victory formation. 

These teams could meet again in the Mountain West Championship and UNLV looks good enough to avenge this loss and keep both teams out of the CFP.