While the eyes of the college football world are glued to the College Football Playoff, one college football future bet sneakily dropped right under our noses and it has some early value.
Andrew Boardwine of Saturday Blitz reported that new head coach Bill Belichick could turn UNC into a dangerous contender very quickly. Boardwine highlighted the influx of transfers and success on the recruiting trail as reasons the team could be heading for a jump under the former Patriots coach.
Well, while everyone is betting on the College Football Playoff, North Carolina’s 2024 win total dropped, with an over/under set at 7.5 wins for 2025. In my opinion, this is an opportunity to jump on the North Carolina bandwagon early at a line that won’t stay at its current number. My prediction is by fall camp of 2025, this line will be sitting at either eight or 8.5 wins.
There is a ton of hype surrounding the Tar Heels for good reason. Beichick is bringing a ton of momentum to a team that went 6-7 this season and adding an infusion of talent to this roster.
Additionally, the Tar Heels schedule in 2025 is not exactly murderers’ row. The Tar Heels face two Power Five teams in its non-conference: TCU at home and UCF on the road. UNC should be a favorite against TCU, a nine-win team last season that could be a dark horse in the Big 12. The matchup with the Horned Frogs should be one of the few toss-up games on the calendar and UNC will have a massive advantage in the fact that TCU will have little idea of how to prepare for a Belichick-led team.
UCF won only four games last season and finished last in the Big 12. They overhauled their coaching staff, bringing back Scott Frost and will have an adjustment period with what is likely to be an entirely new roster.
Charlotte and Richmond round out an out-of-conference schedule that should get the Tar Heels a minimum of three wins.
The ACC slate brings more good news for over betters. The Tar Heels avoid Miami (FL), SMU, Louisville and Georgia Tech. Instead, UNC draws five of the seven worst ACC programs in 2024. UNC will play Stanford, Virginia, Duke and Clemson at home, while taking on California, NC State, Syracuse and Wake Forest on the road. A 5-3 conference record is a bare minimum expectation for Belichick in year one and there is a good chance he could be competing for a conference title.
I project UNC on the safe side to finish 2025 at 8-4. That includes a loss to either TCU or UCF and three losses between the combination of Duke, Clemson, NC State, and Syracuse. It’s also possible that the Tar Heels could surpass the eight win mark if all goes well in year one.
There is a HUGE Caveat to This Bet
There is no secret that since Belichick was fired from the New England Patriots, he has had a strong desire to get back to the NFL. After a year of free agency that saw no bites, it seems that things may be ramping up towards a return. As NFL Insider Tom Pelissero reported, there may be interest in Belichick for several vacancies.
Multiple NFL teams have inquired about whether legendary coach Bill Belichick would reconsider his move to college football – including the Raiders, whose new minority owner Tom Brady spoke recently with his old coach, per league sources. https://t.co/MoyG87epRv
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) January 8, 2025
This throws a HUGE caveat in the win total. Belichick has been adamant that he's committed to UNC but what else is he supposed to say? Admitting he's flirting with the NFL would instantly destabilize his recruiting efforts and marr his first season if he does end up staying with the Tar Heels.
With that being said, I think Belichick will one day return to the NFL - just not this season. He will continue to drum up interest and wait for an opportunity and I predict he'll be in Chapel Hill for one to two years max.
Which means that while everyone is focused on the College Football Playoff, my future prediction is North Carolina and Belichick OVER 7.5 wins in 2025.