Through the first three weeks of the college football season, several top teams have already suffered a loss. However, with the expanded 12-team playoff format, one loss doesn’t completely knock a team out of the playoff race or even hurt their chances that much.
Last season, all but one of the 12 playoff teams had at least one regular-season loss, with five teams that made the playoffs having multiple losses. Notably, four of those teams lost within the first three weeks of the season. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the top ten teams that have already suffered a loss, but still have a chance to make the College Football Playoff.
There is no better time to lose than early in the season, especially when it comes on the road against the top team in the country. While the Longhorns, and especially Arch Manning, haven’t looked great so far, they still have some time to figure things out. With a more favorable SEC schedule ahead, Texas should still feel confident about its postseason chances.
Tennessee’s loss to Georgia in Week 3 had to sting, especially considering it was a game they really should have won. The way the Vols, and Joey Aguilar in particular, performed though was very encouraging. Had they pulled off the win, they would currently be close to a lock for the playoff with the remaining schedule. While no game in the SEC is easy, Josh Heupel’s team will likely be favored in all but one of their remaining matchups.
People may have been too quick to declare Alabama "dead" after Week 1, or maybe we simply underestimated how good Florida State really is. Regardless, that early loss appears to have served as a wake-up call for Kalen DeBoer and the Tide. The road ahead won’t be easy, with seven games remaining against teams currently ranked in the top 25, but that also means plenty of opportunities to pick up quality wins.
Get ready for the Irish and their playoff chances to be a topic of debate for the rest of the season. With two losses, there’s no question they need to win out from here, which is likely with their toughest remaining games coming against Arkansas, Boise State, and USC. Yes, a loss is a loss, but it is worth noting that both of them came against top teams by a combined four points. Ignoring the results for a moment, Notre Dame has looked like a team worthy of a playoff spot. The offense and CJ Carr have done well, and you have to believe Marcus Freeman will get things figured out on the defensive side. Ultimately, whether a two-loss Notre Dame team can sneak into the playoff will depend on how the rest of the field shakes out, but as of now, they’re still alive.
The Group of Five playoff race has really opened up through the first three weeks, and no team boosted its chances more than USF picking up two ranked wins. Miami dominated USF in Week 3, but that wasn’t very surprising given the Bulls’ tough early-season schedule, and it likely won’t mean much in the long run. In the end, we could very well be looking at a win-and-in American Conference Championship game between USF and Tulane.
The Wolverines played it conservative with Bryce Underwood early, which certainly played a role in their loss to Oklahoma, but we finally got a glimpse of what he can fully do, albeit against Central Michigan. Getting through the rest of their Big Ten schedule with no more than one additional loss will be a tough task, but we’ll get a clearer picture of where Michigan truly stands this week as they travel to Nebraska.
Anything can happen in the Big 12, and Baylor is certainly a team that could win the conference and earn a playoff spot. Their offense is electric and can keep them in any game, but Dave Aranda’s defense has been the main issue so far. With most of the Bears key conference matchups coming at home, and their only loss being out of conference, they are definitely a team to keep an eye on.
Arizona State is another contender in the wide-open Big 12 that suffered an out-of-conference loss. Last year, we saw Kenny Dillingham figure things out late in the season, after starting 5-2 before rattling off six straight wins to get in the playoff. The Sun Devils will take on Baylor in Week 4 in a game that has massive Big 12 implications.
No team has been more off the mark from their preseason expectations than Clemson. Two losses already, including one in conference, is not good, but it’s hard to completely count out Dabo Swinney and this team considering the talent they have. Outside of Miami at the top, the ACC is pretty open, giving the Tigers a chance to sneak into the conference championship game and steal the automatic playoff bid like they did last year with three regular season losses.
Assuming the Broncos take care of business in the Mountain West, they could still have a chance to make the playoff for the second straight year. However, the loss to USF hurts, as they’ll now be more reliant on how the American Conference plays out rather than controlling their own destiny like they did last year.
More College Football News: