After ascending to No. 1 in the national rankings for the first time in nearly 12 years, the Oregon Ducks aren't getting any breathers in the brutal Big Ten conference. This Saturday's matchup against No. 20 Illinois presents a classic clash of strengths that could prove more challenging than the 21.5-point spread suggests.
Back in Autzen this Saturday! #GoDucks pic.twitter.com/hIZxP5yUaZ
— Oregon Football (@oregonfootball) October 22, 2024
The Fighting Illini arrive in Eugene fresh off a statement victory over Michigan, where their defense showed exactly why they've become one of the Big Ten's most formidable units. How formidable? They held the powerful Wolverines offense to just 7 points, serving notice to the rest of the conference that their defense is championship-caliber.
Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel, who has orchestrated the Ducks' perfect 7-0 start, isn't taking the Illinois defense lightly. "They're tough. They're physical. They play a good brand of football," Gabriel said after Tuesday's practice. "Their whole front has done a really good job of winning their one-on-one matchups. The way they create turnovers, swarm the football, extremely physical at the points of attack. We'll have our hands full."
The betting markets seem to agree with Gabriel's assessment. Despite Oregon being heavily favored by the computers, with the Football Power Index giving the Ducks a 91.4% chance of victory, a surprising 72% of bettors are backing Illinois to either pull the upset or keep the game within three touchdowns.
But this game carries implications beyond just Saturday's result. Oregon currently sits in an unusual three-way dance for Big Ten supremacy with Penn State and Indiana, all sporting unblemished conference records. The twist? None of these teams face each other in the regular season, creating a scenario where the Ducks could theoretically go 12-0 and still miss the conference championship game due to tiebreaker rules.
The pressure is mounting on Oregon to not just win, but win convincingly. The FPI currently gives the Ducks an 86.3% chance to make the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff, but style points could matter in determining their seeding and potential first-round bye.
On the other side of the ball, Illinois brings their own offensive firepower led by quarterback Luke Altmayer, who has impressed with 15 touchdowns against just one interception this season. Gabriel, who knows Altmayer's game well through shared coaching connections, praised his counterpart's development: "You see a guy that has done really well for himself and played really good ball."
The Ducks will have to overcome these challenges without tight end Terrance Ferguson, who recently underwent an appendectomy. His absence could be particularly felt against Illinois' aggressive defense, though Oregon's depth has been a strength all season.
What has Dillon Gabriel observed of Terrance Ferguson since last week's emergency appendectomy?
— Erik Skopil (@Erik_Skopil) October 22, 2024
"You see him walking around and you see a guy who is just so forward thinking. It didn't necessarily affect him anyway mentally. I love that about him."https://t.co/JuoB0XGid6
The computer models project Oregon to win by 21.2 points, just shy of the 21.5-point spread. But numbers don't tell the whole story – Illinois has proven they can compete with anyone, and their defense could present the stiffest test yet for Oregon's high-powered offense.
Last week's 35-0 shutout of Purdue showed Oregon can dominate on both sides of the ball. But Illinois presents a different level of challenge – one that could either validate the Ducks' place atop the rankings or throw the Big Ten race into even more chaos.
The game kicks off at 12:30 p.m. PST on Saturday.
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