What the College Football Playoff should look like after Week 10

Week 10 was another great week of college football, including another classic edition of the Ohio State/Penn State rivalry, Georgia and Miami having first-half difficulty before pulling away late, South Carolina and Louisville ending the at-large bids of Texas A&M and Clemson, and Texas Tech ending Iowa State’s perfect season, allowing Colorado to sneak back into the Big 12 Championship race.

On Tuesday, the College Football Playoff (CFP) Committee will share their first ranking and the “if the season ended today” playoff field at 7 p.m. ET. It’s worthwhile to keep in mind that, per the CFP website, the major determining factors used in deciding the field's makeup are as follows: 

• Strength of Schedule
• Head-to-head results (for example, Texas being the 3rd ranked team last year and Alabama being the 4th) 
• Comparative outcomes against common opponents
• “Other relevant factors such as unavailability of key players and coaches that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance.” (for example, Jordan Travis tore his ACL late last year, which derailed Florida State's season)

No. 12: SMU (ACC, 8-1), 13th in the AP Poll

The Mustangs secured a signature win Saturday night against then-undefeated Pitt 48-25, leading wire-to-wire. Sophomore Quarterback Kevin Jennings shined, putting up 306 yards and 2 TDs on a quick 17 completions.

However, the star of the night belongs to senior Running Back Brashard Smith who racked up 161 yards and 2 TDs on the ground along with 21 yards and a TD receiving. SMU took control of the game early, dropping 24 unanswered points in the 2nd quarter, and cruised in the second half to improve to 8-1. 

The Mustangs' only loss on the season came at the hands of BYU 15-18 in early September but the ACC newcomers did not let that affect their conference performances as they have won 6 straight since and are perfect in ACC play.

Remaining Schedule: BYE, 11/9; v. Boston College, 11/16; @ Virginia; 11/23; v. California, 11/30. 

No. 11: Boise State (MWC, 7-1), 12th in the AP Poll

The name Ashton Jeanty, belonging to the star Junior RB, has been unavoidable in College Football this season. Averaging 8 yards a carry, 2.5 TDs a game, and a whopping 191 yards per game (including being rested at halftime in multiple games), he has demanded recognition in the Heisman race despite not being on a Power 4 roster. 

However, all these expectations and recognition have allowed the Broncos to shine in the passing game against a defense stacking the box against the best running back in the country.

Under the Friday night lights, sophomore QB Maddux Madsen threw for 307 yards and 4 TDs as the Broncos won 56-24 against San Diego State. Senior Wide Receiver Latrell Caples reeled in 3 TDs on 90 yards and 6 receptions. Despite having all defensive eyes on him, Jeanty still posted 180 scrimmage yards and 2 rushing TDs. 

Boise State’s sole loss was at the hands of current no. 1 team in the country, Oregon on a last-second field goal to win 34-37.

Remaining Schedule: v. Nevada, 11/9; @ San Jose State, 11/16; @ Wyoming; 11/23; v. Oregon State, 11/29.

No. 10: Notre Dame (indep., 7-1), 10th in the AP Poll

This team took the nation on a rollercoaster of hype and disappointment after an impressive road win at Texas A&M before falling short against Northern Illinois at home in what is definitely the worst loss among teams projected to be in the playoffs. But after laying a humbling performance on Navy in week 9 with a scoreline of 51-14, the Fighting Irish reentered the playoff conversation.

Remaining Schedule: v. Florida State, 11/9; v. Virginia, 11/16; v. (18) Army, 11/23; @ USC, 11/30. 

No. 9: Indiana (B1G, 9-0), 8th in the AP Poll

No analyst, talking head, or frankly Hoosier fan expected Indiana to be 9-0, in the conversation for an appearance in the Big 10 Championship, or the College Football Playoffs. But despite the odds, first-year Head Coach Curt Cignetti has the Hoosiers off to their best start ever after beating Michigan State 47-10 in their 9th consecutive 14+ point win of the season.

At the end of the first quarter, Indiana was down 0-10 only until Senior QB Kurtis Rourke took over, throwing for 4 TDs and 263 yards as the Hoosiers scored 47 unanswered points. The defense also looked incredibly impressive, only allowing 12 Michigan State rushing yards. 

The biggest blockade between the Hoosiers and a perfect regular season is a road test at Ohio State in two weeks, who could be eliminated from the Playoff with a loss.

Remaining Schedule: v. Michigan, 11/9; BYE, 11/16; @ (3) Ohio State; 11/23; v. Purdue, 11/30.

No. 8: Tennessee (SEC, 6-1), 7th in the AP Poll

On paper, Tennesse has had two seasons: a non-conference practice in mercy rule and a bunch of good enough SEC performances being propped up by impressive but not dominant wins. Led by backfield duo Freshman QB Nico Iamaleava and Junior RB Dylan Sampson, Tennessee beat their first three opponents 69-3, 51-10, and 71-0, but the offense would swiftly slow once in SEC play.

Now being held to between 24 and 28 points with the outlier of a drab 14 in their sole loss at Arkansas 14-19. Their game this weekend against Kentucky was more of the same, Sampson dazzled with 150 scrimmage yards, and 2 rushing TDs, and Iamaleava was brilliant with 292 yards and a TD. 

The Vol defense has been consistent, allowing no more than 3 scores in a game all season, averaging 11.8 points per game. They will be pushed to their limit in a road test at Georgia in what will very possibly be an elimination game on both sides. 

Remaining Schedule: v. Mississippi State, 11/9; @ (2) Georgia, 11/16; v. UTEP, 11/23; v. Vanderbilt, 11/30. 

No. 7: Penn State (B1G, 7-1), 6th in the AP Poll

Another year, another missed opportunity to change the “can’t get it done in the big game” narrative around as the Nittany Lions suffered their first loss of the year at home to Ohio State 13-20. After only 10 minutes of play, the Nittany Lions jumped out to a 10-0 lead, only to score 3 more points in the following 50 minutes of gameplay.

Junior QB Drew Allar did not inspire as he posted a dire 146-yard, 0 TD, 1 interception stat line, leading his offense to 6 points in the biggest game of the season thus far. The Nittany Lions had no rusher over 50 yards and starting RB junior Kaytron Allen posted 27 yards on 12 attempts. 

Penn State now faces an uphill battle to regain a chance at the Big 10 Championship game as they currently sit 4th in the table and have a head-to-head disadvantage due to this loss. Penn State’s ideal path to the championship game would have to include multiple losses from Indiana, Ohio State, and Oregon. All signs point to Allar and HC James Franklin having to be complacent with, hopefully, a home playoff game in December. 

Remaining Schedule: v. Washington, 11/9; @ Purdue, 11/16; @ Minnesota, 11/23; v. Maryland, 11/30. 

No. 6: Texas (SEC, 7-1), 5th in the AP Poll

Life looks a lot different in Austin from early October to early November. Starting October, Texas was 5-0 with multiple star QBs at their disposal, junior Quinn Ewers and freshman Arch Manning, while sitting comfortably at no. 1 in the country. The Longhorns were soaring following a blowout in the Red River Rivalry, but they soon came back down to earth when the offense came up quiet against Georgia at home in a shock 15-30 loss.

Texas bounced back however with a gritty 27-24 road win over ranked Vanderbilt. Now Texas sits at a small imbalance after having no wins against currently ranked teams and being 0-1 against fellow playoff-caliber teams. 

All teams remaining on Texas’ schedule have given other ranked teams either upsets or took them to overtime. If Texas cannot survive their November gauntlet without suffering another loss, the Longhorns will have a hard time finding a path into the playoff field come Selection Sunday. 

Remaining Schedule: v. Florida, 11/9; @ Arkansas, 11/16; v. Kentucky, 11/23; v. (15) Texas A&M, 11/30. 

No. 5: Ohio State (B1G, 7-1), 3rd in the AP Poll

Senior QB Will Howard exorcised his time management woes with a gritty road win against Penn State. Howard (182 yards, 2 TDs, and an INT) and the offense showed great resilience after giving up a pick-six on their first drive, coming out and putting together 3 touchdown length drives (although the third ended in a fumble-out-the-back-of-the-endzone touchback and no points) and only punting twice across nine possessions.

Despite a good day from Howard, this game was won on defense, limiting the no. 3 team in the country to 6 offensive points. Junior Cornerback Davidson Igbinosun reeled in a spectacular interception, ripping the ball from the wide receiver with mere seconds on the clock before the end of the half. 

This win was do or die for the Buckeyes' playoff and Big 10 Championship chances, keeping both alive by staying above the multi-loss pit.

As we grow further and further into the season, Ohio State’s week 13 match-up in Columbus with Indiana gains more and more traction as a sort of Big 10 Championship Game semifinal, as a Hoosier win would either clinch Indiana’s spot or allow the Buckeye’s backdoor journey to be completed as they would hold head-to-heads over the other one-loss teams.

Remaining Schedule: v. Purdue, 11/9; @ Northwestern, 11/16; v. (8) Indiana, 11/23; v. Michigan, 11/30. 

No. 4: BYU (Big 12, 8-0), 9th in the AP Poll

Sometimes, you don’t need to play in order to win. Entering Saturday, the Cougars were one of two teams undefeated in Big 12 conference play, Iowa State being the other, and two teams entered with one loss, Kansas State and Colorado.

Within 30 minutes of each other, both Iowa State and Kansas State were upset and handed devastating losses, knocking KSU out of conference championship game contention and putting the Cyclones’ back to the wall. The Cougars’ position atop the Big 12 was solidified and now have some wiggle in case of a wobble. 

Remaining Schedule: @ Utah, 11/9; v. Kansas, 11/16; @ Arizona State; 11/23; v. Houston, 11/30. 

No. 3: Miami (ACC, 9-0), 4th in the AP Poll

After looking shaky in early conference games, and even now still having some nervous moments on defense, the Hurricanes have settled in as ACC favorites following a 53-31 comeback win at home against Duke and Clemson losing by double digits at home against Louisville. Senior QB Cam Ward continues to post video game numbers consistently every week, throwing for 400 yards, 5 TDs, and an Interception and senior WR Xavier Restrepo dazzled for 146 yards and 3 TDs on 8 receptions. 

The Hurricanes are on a mission: Heisman for Cam Ward entering their last handful of games in November with no direct threat to their spot in the Conference Championship after the number of undefeated teams slims to two, Miami and SMU. 

Remaining Schedule: @ Georgia Tech, 11/9; BYE, 11/16; v. Wake Forest, 11/23; @ Syracuse, 11/30. 

No. 2: Georgia (SEC, 7-1), 2nd in the AP Poll

The Bulldogs trailed for the majority of the game against Florida in their annual neutral site game in Jacksonville. It took a heroic push from Senior QB Carson Beck who threw for 309 yards, 2 TDs, and 3 Interceptions. The Bulldogs stifled their opponents and won the second half 28-7 en route to their 34-20 comeback win. 

Unlike some other teams nearing the end of the season who feel comfortable in their position in the playoff, Georgia is the sole one-loss, auto-bid conference champion. With two blockbusters still on the schedule, the Bulldogs could very easily be on the outside looking in come December if they don’t stay in the win column in games that are elimination games for both teams involved.

Five teams currently sit at one loss in the SEC and only two can make the championship, we can only wait to see how many teams can retain their spots in the CFP. 

Remaining Schedule: @ (19) Ole Miss, 11/9; v. (7) Tennessee, 11/16; v. UMass, 11/23; v. Georgia Tech, 11/29. 

No. 1: Oregon (B1G, 9-0), 1st in the AP Poll

The Ducks made slight work of the reigning national champions on the road, beating Michigan 38-17. Senior QB and Heisman front-runner Dillion Gabriel felt no pressure in yet another big game, throwing for 294 yards, a TD, and getting another TD on the ground.

Senior WR Traeshon Holden had a career day, reeling in 6 catches for 149 yards. RB battery Junior Jordan James (117 yards, 1 TD) and Senior Noah Whittington (36 yards, 2 TDs) complimented each other and caused havoc for the Michigan D-Line all afternoon while also carrying most of the red zone responsibilities. 

Oregon closes the season with two home games, split by one final trip to the Midwest to face Wisconsin in what is their final test of the regular season. Although the trend of teams struggling when traveling multiple timezones is not as sharp, the Ducks can’t afford a late-season slip. 

Remaining Schedule: v. Maryland, 11/9; @ Wisconsin, 11/16; BYE, 11/23; v. Washington, 11/30.

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