What the College Football Playoff would look like after Week 7
The College Football Playoff Committee is withholding rankings on the current season until Nov. 5th, and given the wave of upsets coming through the season, it's worthwhile to look at where teams will be starting once the ratings with weight come to fruition. Please note that the rankings will be 25 teams deep, while these rankings will only be 12 deep until the week of the first full College Football Playoff Rankings.
Per the CFP website, the major determining factors used in deciding the field's makeup are:
- Strength of Schedule
- Head-to-head results (for example, Texas being the 3rd ranked team last year and Alabama being the 4th)
- Comparative outcomes against common opponents
- “Other relevant factors such as unavailability of key players and coaches that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance.” (for example, Jordan Travis tore his ACL late last year which derailed Florida State's season)
Firstly, the notable teams on the outside: Tennessee (SEC, 5-1), Notre Dame (Indep., 5-1), Army (AAC, 6-0)
No. 12: Boise State (MWC, 5-1):
It might seem unreasonable to have the Broncos represent the group of five conferences over an undefeated Army or Liberty but Junior Running Back Ashton Jeanty refuses to be denied from the playoff.
Through six games, two of which he was benched at halftime, Jeanty has put up a nation-leading 1248 rushing yards (not to mention his 9.9 yards per carry average) and 17 touchdowns. The only blemish on their record is a 34-37 loss against then No. 7 Oregon in Eugene, which came down to the wire.
Between their Mountain West dominance, a Heisman favorite, and a strong defense, the Broncos make an extremely strong case for the 12 seed. Boise State's road to glory runs through UNLV on 10/25 (Friday), v. San Diego State on 11/1, and at San Jose State on 11/16.
No. 11: BYU (Big 12, 6-0):
The Cougars are the only team on this list that would have looked completely out of place as an at-large bid-getter at the beginning of the season. However, this team might not be limited to a tough round one road game if they can steal the top spot from a fellow undefeated, Iowa State.
Junior Quarterback Jake Retzlaff has turned many heads this season, posting 1424 passing yards and 14 total touchdowns across the first half of the season.
The back half of BYU's season looked a lot more daunting in preseason than now; once poised to face both ranked Kansas on 11/16 and top-15 Utah on 11/9 but as both teams have blundered and failed to live up to expectations, BYU is in the driver's seat.
No. 10: LSU (SEC, 5-1):
The Tigers have completely bounced back to Playoff hopefuls after a Week 1 neutral-site loss against USC, capped off by an impressive road win in OT against No. 9 Ole Miss. Junior QB Garrett Nussmeier was stuck behind Heisman-winner Jayden Daniels on the depth chart last year, but this year the Nuss is loose!
Nussmeier has thrown for over 275 yards on 35+ passing attempts in every game this season, resulting in 20 total TDs and just under 2000 passing yards. His top target, Senior Kyren Lacy is a magnet, averaging 15.4 yards per catch, reeling in 6 TDs and 463 yards.
All Tiger fans will have their eyes looking forward to LSU's visit to College Station on 10/26 and a home match-up against long-time division rival Alabama on 11/9.
No. 9: Clemson (ACC, 5-1): These Tigers are also completely back in the playoff conversation after a tough loss to start the season. In their past 5, HC Dabo Sweeney has his team looking like it's 2017, going 5-0 with an average margin of 28.3 points, the only problem is that they lost by 31 against Georgia in week 1.
Junior QB Cade Klubnik has improved across the board in his second year as the starter. So far this season, he has 1528 passing yards, 21 TDs, and only 2 interceptions. Senior RB Phil Mafah is also having a great year with 604 rushing yards and 4 TDs.
There are many reasons to be positive in Death Valley. Clemson has few tests remaining this season, the biggest being v. Louisville on 11/2 and at Pittsburgh on 11/16.
No. 8: Penn State (B1G, 6-0):
The air is getting thin near Mount Nittany as Penn State remains one of the few undefeated teams at the halfway mark of the season. Despite some worrying moments, Junior QB Drew Allar has led his team to some resilient wins, including weathering a 14-point deficit on the road in Southern California before going on a 27-10 run to win the game in OT.
Allar has led by example so far this year, putting up 1492 passing yards and 14 TDs. Allar's best target is surprisingly Senior Tight End Tyler Warren, who has more than double the receptions (40) as anyone else, 513 receiving yards, and 4 TDs.
Penn State's biggest game is undoubtedly ahead of them, a home game v. Ohio State, who has very notably given them fits in the past few years, on 11/2 which could be the make-or-break moment on their perfect season.
No. 7: Georgia (SEC, 5-1):
The Bulldogs had their bed made for them this season, having to play Alabama and newcomers Texas in-conference, before assumably running into one of them again in the Conference Title game. So far, they have answered that call only allowing a close Alabama loss to be their only blemish.
Senior Quarterback Carson Beck has looked incredibly sharp in his second year at the helm with 1818 yards and 15 TDs.
However, in a system that prioritizes head-to-head match-ups so heavily, Georgia will be limited by Alabama's spot until they either meet again or one of them loses. Georgia still has three ranked opponents left, none more intimidating than a road visit to Texas this weekend, then @ Ole Miss on 11/9, and v. Tennessee on 11/16.
No. 6: Alabama (SEC, 5-1): Come Selection Sunday, all wins count the same which will be a welcome notion for Crimson Tide fans who were panicking after South Carolina scored and recovered an onside kick with under a minute to go.
First-year Head Coach Kalen DeBoer avoids back-to-back losses despite another conference game wobble. Junior Jalen Milroe is the best dual-threat quarterback in the country, sporting 12 passing TDs,11 rushing TDs, and over 1800 yards from scrimmage. Milroe's most notable target, Ryan Williams is also an amazing star in his own right.
Williams through 6 games has 576 yards on 23 receptions and 6 TDs, the 17-year-old is averaging 25 yards per catch. Alabama also has a trio of ranked opponents in their next three games; at Tennessee on 10/19, v. Missouri on 10/26, and at LSU on 11/9, and we will have a very full understanding of their standing as the season wraps up.
No. 5: Ohio State (B1G, 5-1):
The Buckeyes and Will Howard leave hopes of a perfect season in Autzen Stadium as the Ducks emerge victorious from this heavyweight bout. It is possible, some might say likely, that these two will meet again on an early December night in Indianapolis with a B1G championship and playoff bye on the line.
Senior transfer QB Will Howard, despite controversial time management recently, has lived up to every hope the Buckeye faithful had for him. Howard has put up 1574 passing yards and 19 total TDs so far.
On the wings, Howard has an embarrassment of riches, both freshman Jeremiah Smith and senior Emeka Egbuka have put up 500 receiving yards and 6 TDs, (Smith has put up 7) which shows how talented this WR room is.
Ohio State will have many chances to bounce back after this setback, including a trip to Penn State at the end of October and the annual edition of "The Game" at home against Michigan.