Phil Steele’s Preseason Football Magazine has been a must-read for college football fans since he released his first one in 1995. There are few people in the media more knowledgeable and thorough. In the 2026 issue, Steele lists Alabama, BYU, Oklahoma, USC, and Utah as his surprise teams for this season.
To be fair his methodology was only that qualifying teams must start outside the Top 10. However in this day and age, with player movement and talent disbursement, this list doesn’t provide a “wow” factor. Any of those five teams could be playing in January and it should be only a mild surprise. Here’s a list of one SURPRISE team from each P4 conference, focusing on teams that would truly create a buzz in the tournament. To be eligible, these teams must be at least +2000 to win their conference in 2026.
The surprise teams in each Power 4 conference
Big 12: Arizona State
Kenny Dillingham is rebuilding a roster that returns only 51% of its production from a year ago, including the loss of QB Sam Leavitt to LSU. They do, however, return key components at the skill positions and on the defensive line. Dillingham is one of the brightest offensive coaches in the country, and will find a way to score points with the talented Cutter Boley coming from Kentucky to play QB. Boley was a 4 Star Transfer Portal prospect and brings plenty of upside to the position.
The Sun Devils are likely to be heavy underdogs at Texas A&M in Week 2, but after that they get a solid three game stretch that could put them at 3-1. Only being able to absorb two losses they’ll need to upset one of Texas A&M, Texas Tech, and BYU…ALL of them are away. The schedule does them no favors, but the combo of Dillingham and Boley gives them a punchers chance.
ACC: NC State
In his 14th season at the helm of the Wolfpack, Dave Doeren is an impressive 95-70. In four of those years, he’s scratched together 9 win seasons. QB CJ Bailey is back and one of the most dynamic signal callers in the ACC. He’ll need protection from a "hopefully" improved OL, but if he gets it, Bailey can carry an underdog to some wins. The defense must do better than their 12th overall league finish last season.
Keep an eye on the opener, if NC State can pull off a win at Virginia in Week 0 things could get interesting fast. A road trip to Vandy in Week 2 and a home matchup with Louisville in Week 4 are major tests as well. If they can win two of those three, then 10 wins is on the table down the stretch.
Big Ten: Washington
If you’re looking for an interesting dark-horse Heisman finalist, allow me to introduce you to Demond Williams Jr. at Washington. Head Coach Jedd Fisch has coached under Steve Spurrier, Sean McVay, and Bill Belichick and understands how to put up points and yards. Williams is one of the best dual threat QB’s in the country, with over 3600 combined yards in 2025, and four offensive linemen return from an offense that was 5th in the Big 10 last season. The Huskies should be offensively scary, and the defense finished 5th in scoring defense in the league in 2025.
The first 10 games on the schedule are not terribly daunting, and the Huskies should be 4-0 when they take a road trip to USC. UW gets Iowa and Penn State at home. If they can pass all those tests, the reward is a home tilt with Indiana and a road trip to Oregon to finish the year. Nobody said it would be easy to get to 10 wins, but if Williams elevates to superstar status, then that could level the playing field.
SEC: Florida Gators
Stop me if you’ve heard this one…since the “Blue Chip Ratio” was first measured, every National Champion has had a ratio of over 50% until the “Cignetti Miracle of 2025”. The Florida Gators rank 11th in the nation with 53%, tied with USC. The Florida roster is very, very good. Head Coach Jon Sumrall also added two veteran, proven coordinators in OC Buster Faulkner and DC Brad White. If the QB situation gets settled and the offensive line can gel, the Gators will get one or two unexpected wins.
The schedule has many potholes, but there are hidden opportunities. Of the 5 road games, only one will be against a pre-season Top 10 team…the October 17th game at Texas. The other four road games are against opponents (Auburn, Missouri, Kentucky, and Florida State) that had a combined record of 23-26. Jon Sumrall has never won less than 9 games in a season as a Head Coach…if he can pull that off in Year 1 in Gainesville, he may be Coach of the Year.
Ultimately, the above teams are unlikely to make a run to the playoffs, but hope springs eternal…and it’s still July.
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