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Why SMU is the ACC's biggest sleeper with a path to the College Football Playoff

Nov 29, 2025; Berkeley, California, USA; Southern Methodist Mustangs quarterback Kevin Jennings (7) is congratulated by head coach Rhett Lashlee (center left) after scoring a touchdown against the California Golden Bears during the fourth quarter at California Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images
Nov 29, 2025; Berkeley, California, USA; Southern Methodist Mustangs quarterback Kevin Jennings (7) is congratulated by head coach Rhett Lashlee (center left) after scoring a touchdown against the California Golden Bears during the fourth quarter at California Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Miami Hurricanes may look like the clear favorite in the ACC heading into 2026, but there is one team in the conference, and in the grand scheme of college football, that is flying under the radar heading into the season. Rhett Lashlee and the SMU Mustangs are coming into this season looking strong, with a combined record of 31-10 over the past three seasons and double-digit wins in two of those years. Even with that success, it still feels like SMU is a team that is rarely talked about. 

This season Lashlee gets his quarterback Kevin Jennings back for what will be his third year as the starter, and similar to the team as a whole, he is a guy who is flying under the radar at the QB position. Jennings is one of the best reutrining QBs in the sport and has thrown for over 3,000 yards in each of his two seasons as a starter, totaling 49 touchdowns while also being a threat with his legs. Having a quarterback with his talent and extensive experience who has spent multiple years in Lashlee's system is a big reason why SMU is a serious threat. And don't forget that this head coach-QB duo has already made an appearance in the College Football Playoff, which is something not a lot of teams can say they have heading into 2026. 

Outside of Jennings, they did lose a good bit from last year's team, but they still rank in the top 25 in returning production in all of college football. The Mustangs return multiple starters on both sides of the ball, highlighted by three starting offensive linemen that will be back to protect Jennings. They lost most of their production on the defensive end, but used the transfer portal to address that issue. Ultimately though, defense has never really been what Rhett Lashlee's teams are known for, and this year's group will likely lean on what should be a high-powered offense. In addition, they grabbed some talented skill-position players in the portal, including running back Kendrick Raphael who ranked fifth in the ACC in rushing last season at Cal.

Admittedly, outside of having Jennings back, the roster is nothing crazy. But it never has been for Lashlee at SMU yet he's still won, and the biggest reason this team is a threat in my opinion is their schedule.

Now the outlook or toughness of a schedule is obviously something that can change as the season goes on, but right now the Mustangs' schedule sets up really well for them. Most notably they will not have to play Miami, Clemson, or Pitt during the regular season. There is a good chance that SMU will be favored in every ACC game this season, and their toughest test by far will come in an out-of-conference matchup in November against Notre Dame. 

I also like that we will have a very good idea of where this team stands early, as they will face Florida State and Louisville on the road within the first three weeks of the season. If they can win both of those games, it could be smooth sailing the rest of the way and put them in the driver's seat for an appearance in the ACC Championship Game.

With the 12-team playoff, we get teams that are on the outside looking in to begin the season making it into the bracket, and SMU is a strong contender to be one of those teams this season. With an experienced starting quarterback and a head coach who have already won a lot of games together, SMU is a team that should be talked about more heading into the start of the season. The Mustangs probably would get more attention if it weren't for Miami looking like they are head and shoulders above everyone else in the ACC. But don't forget that Miami's last loss before its run to the national championship game last season came at the hands of Rhett Lashlee, Kevin Jennings, and the SMU Mustangs.

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