I’m merely preaching to the choir when I say that now is not a good time to be a fan of Florida State football. This is due in large part to head coach Mike Norvell who, with some help from the university’s knack for poor spending, is essentially holding the program financially hostage.
But nonetheless, the popular take is still that the approaching season will be his last in Tallahassee, and I’m inclined by obvious means to agree. Before I lock in my subscription though, I figured I should give them the same schedule analysis I give everyone else, to see if the dream really is dead—so let’s see what we got.
The Seminoles begin their 2026 trek with New Mexico State, one of two pushovers in their non-conference quartet (the other being the even-feebler Central Arkansas).
From here, it’s one thing for the other half to be scarier, but in FSU’s case, it leaves absolutely no room for forgiveness, with a trip to playoff-caliber Alabama (who I doubt sleeps on you this time) and a visit from unpredictable Florida. That lifts our count of potential/likely losses to two rather quickly.
Then comes league play, and I can’t afford to speak delicately here: Florida State has one of the toughest slates possible by today’s standard in the ACC; it’s so tough that I’m sure there’s some fans out there certain of it being a payback move for the school’s legal uproars. I’m talking SMU, Virginia, at Louisville, at Miami, Clemson, at Pittsburgh, AND NC State.
Whether it be by 2025 performance, 2025 head-to-head or both, each of those names have heavy odds over the Seminoles we’re bracing for. The only one I didn’t name was Boston College, but even the Eagles can at least say they’ll be hosting (I also can’t see the boldness in assuming they’ll do better than their recent 2-10 finish).
I walked into this matter believing that any regular-season tally beneath 7-5 would fail to keep Norvell around, as bowling with a shot at eight wins would prove substantial growth and not be the end of the world all things considered. With that said, I’m looking at a realistic floor of nine losses here, so is 7-5 going to happen? Basic probability dictates no. Take care, Mike.
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