If recent college football seasons have not treated you well, just think about it this way: Your team’s probably had it better than Stanford.
Upon finishing 3-9 this last season, the Cardinal have put up the same sorry record for four years straight, making them one of the most consistently terrible teams in the country, and hopefully implying that they won’t get any worse.
When combining that sturdy floor with last month’s ACC schedule release, I’m dying to know if 2025 has even the slightest chance of seeing Stanford football hit an upward trajectory—so let’s find out.
The 2025 Cardinal hit some serious adversity right out of the gate
Kicking things off with their out-of-conference foes, the Cardinal face half of them in their first two games of the year, taking on both Hawaii and BYU in enemy territory. With the Rainbow Warriors being another squad that has floundered for years now, I don’t see them having Stanford start on the wrong foot regardless of where they meet. BYU, however, is a frighteningly different story.
The Cougars just went 11-2 and left some people daring to call them a “playoff snub” after their dominating bowl win over Colorado. When tossing that run in with the three other years of 8+ wins they’ve had post-2019, the Cougs just seem like they’ve cemented too high of a standard to fall to a team of Stanford’s usual caliber. And before you ask, no: The Cardinal having their first bye before the matchup doesn’t change that.
From there, you have three more games before you hit your second bye, and those three are Boston College, at Virginia, and San Jose State. This is where things get rather interesting, as I essentially have the Cardinal winning the games you’d think they’d lose, and losing the only one you’d maybe humor them to win—but just hear me out.
Boston College was a winning team last season, so it may not be the first name you think of when spitballing ACC schools that Stanford can beat. However, the Cardinal don’t give you the same fight every week, which is why they just had wins over guys like 10-win Syracuse and nine-win Louisville. If I can count on them having one or two “gotcha!” games like those in 2025, one would have to be when they host BC for their first home game.
As for the Cavs, they are not a winning bunch, but will be hosting Stanford while its head’s in the clouds after a big dub, therefore? Sobering loss. Then it’s SJSU, who barely squeaked past Stanford at home last year. Logic dictates that when you’re still playing smaller competition and now have to go on the road, you’re probably not going to escape defeat again.
So, heading into October and bye week #2, we’re about halfway through the schedule, but with a visit to SMU being next up, let’s just go ahead and tack that onto the loss count. Where does that put us, 3-3? Not too bad on the Stanford curve, but can that ratio hold its beauty through the downward stretch?
The second half of this journey is where the heat really ramps up
Stanford’s seventh game of the year is one that I feel quite confident in predicting, but not without some controversy. In short, the Cardinal host FSU, and I have them losing.
Now I get it, the Seminoles just went 2-10, and it’s not just any home game, but Stanford’s Homecoming game. That stuff doesn’t change just how extreme of an outlier 2024 was for the program though, nor does it change the fact that they have greatly superior talent every season.
Especially when they’re stuck between road battles against powers like the Mustangs and Hurricanes, I don’t feel right betting against the ‘Noles in this one. Speaking of which, the Cardinal will lose to Miami as well (at least that one shouldn’t be a hot take, am I right?).
We then take things back home to host Pittsburgh, and this is where the other “gotcha” game comes into play for me. The Panthers are notoriously inconsistent under head coach Pat Narduzzi, and I have that showing in this meeting, as they will be all the way across the country, overlooking the Cardinal while coming off of a relentless several weeks and having a much-needed bye on the horizon.
So, through nine games, I have the 2025 Stanford Cardinal sitting at 4-5. That means I have this year being the one to see them break their dreadful 3-9 curse no matter what happens in games 10-12, and that’s quite fortuitous—as they’re going to lose all three of those. I mean c’mon: A Bill Belichick-led UNC team all the way over in Chapel Hill? California, your top rival who has an active win streak on you and has somehow been playing you tougher in Stanford? And don’t even get me started on Notre Dame.
But let's not get sidetracked here; 4-8 is nonetheless better than 3-9, and especially when accounting for everything that has already changed (along with everything else that will) this offseason, there’s no problem with taking baby steps…even if they are very, very tiny baby steps.