I recently broke down Fresno State’s potential to dip back into the Group of 5’s success pool this upcoming season, and it got me thinking about other names that are gripping onto the same dream. Enter: Troy.
The Troy Trojans finished 4-8 in 2024, giving them their worst record since 2015. Such a tally is objectively disappointing, but when you had hit 10 wins or more in five of your last eight years leading up to it, it manages to sting all the more.
But, with head coach Gerad Parker now having a full year under his belt, the Trojans should hopefully be significantly better-structured as they begin their 2025 gauntlet. Speaking of which, it’s one look at that that’ll ultimately decide where we stand on their likelihood to move forward.
Troy’s schedule is cut into three almost-equal parts—the first of which is not kind
Week 1 will be quite forgiving for the Trojans, as they kick things off by hosting Nicholls. That’s about as lovely as things will be for a while though, as the Colonels are swiftly followed by Clemson, Memphis and Buffalo, with the first and third opponents in that trio hosting their meetings.
With all of that in mind, let’s just rip off the Band-Aid—Troy will probably be 1-3 as it limps into its first bye.
Part two consists of five games, and with them will come far more emotional turbulence
After the bye comes rival South Alabama in Troy. The Trojans faced them off a bye last year in enemy territory and lost ugly, so that has me thinking they’ll come out hungry for revenge and get the home dub this time around. However, while riding so high on that victory, they’ll have the rug pulled out from under them by a respectable Texas State in San Marcos.
They are then back on the road for a run-in with ULM, who I simply refuse to believe is capable of beating the Trojans in back-to-back years (at least nowadays), so down go the Warhawks.
From there, it’s time to host play dates with Louisiana (coming off of 10 wins) and Arkansas State (coming off of eight, but is the visitor for Homecoming week). Here’s the deal: Gimme the Ragin’ Cajuns in that first game, but Troy in the second.
The Red Wolves barely beat the Trojans in their own Homecoming game last year, so I see nothing that can scare me off from picking the opposite ending for this fall. That puts the Trojans at a bumpy 4-5 as they reach bye week #2.
Part three is supposed to be the most thrilling, but luckily for Troy, it won’t be
Boy, I wish I had more to dig into here, but there really is nothing to this final stretch for the Trojans. Simply put, they have to win two of these final three games to go bowling, but with how terrible the teams playing them are, they should win all of them without breaking a sweat.
For context, Troy’s last three opponents are Old Dominion (just went 5-7), Georgia State (3-9), and Southern Mississippi (1-11). So not only do the Trojans conclude their regular-season campaign with a lineup of teams that didn’t go bowling in 2024, but the one that got closest is the one they face after a week of rest…yeah, easy money.
That tear sends Troy off to a bowl game where it, assuming my predictions are accurate, will have the chance to wrap up 2025 with eight wins. Is that the bar fans had previously been getting used to? No, but considering that would nonetheless double the win count they saw last year, I’m sure they’d take it.