12 most likely College Football Playoff teams after Week 1: Alabama outside looking in

Dec 31, 2024; Tampa, FL, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Kalen DeBoer reads the playcard against the Michigan Wolverines during the first half at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images
Dec 31, 2024; Tampa, FL, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Kalen DeBoer reads the playcard against the Michigan Wolverines during the first half at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images | Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

The second weekend of the College Football season kicks off on Friday Night as the narratives in the sport start to form. The second weekend is a massive step back from Week 1 as there is only 1 matchup between ranked opponents while most schools use this week to face much weaker opponents.

While we're only 1 week into the season, it's easy to start seeing how the race for the College Football Playoff is shaking up. Teams like Ohio State, LSU, and Miami all picked up resume building wins while a team like Alabama may have killed it's chances in the opening week. After the first week of games, there's already a group of teams trending toward the College Football Playoff.

These 12 programs have the inside track to the College Football Playoff

One of the 12 College Football Playoff bids is guaranteed to a Non Power 4 program and this season the best team may be Tulane. After adding Jake Retzlaff late to replace transfer Darian Mensah, the Green Wave are just scratching the surface of their potential and will only improve. USF may pose the biggest threat to Tulane but, beating Duke or Ole Miss is far more manageable than USF's games against Florida and Miami.

The Iowa State Cyclones are ahead of everyone else in the Big 12 as they already have a Conference win after beating a solid Kansas State team in Dublin. As the Cyclones returned so many key pieces, it's hard to envision any other team knocking them off at this point and the race for the Big 12 regular season crown could come down to their matchup against Arizona State on November 1st.

While Clemson lost their season opener to LSU they'll have a great chance at making the College Football Playoff thanks to playing in the ACC. Even if Clemson loses a game in ACC play and again at the end of the regular season to South Carolina, as long as they only lose once in conference play, they'll have a shot at the ACC Championship and making the playoff. There are only two teams that can knock Dabo Swinney's group off in SMU and Florida State and splitting those games could get them back to the ACC Title game.

Coming off of a trip to the National Championship, it was never going to be easy for Notre Dame to win in Week 1 on the road against Miami. The good news for Marcus Freeman is that losing to a ranked Miami team puts them in a much better place than they were last season losing to Northern Illinois. The rest of the way, Notre Dame only plays one ranked opponent in Texas A&M which makes making the playoff much easier even if they lose.

Bret Bielema returns one of the most talented teams in the Big Ten and part of their advantage this season is playing a weaker schedule. This group only faces two ranked opponents, Ohio State and Indiana and a win over the Hoosiers could send this group to the Big Ten Championship and the playoff. The biggest key will be handling the teams Illinois is better than as an unexpected loss would derail the hype train.

The Oregon Ducks have undergone a ton of change since last season and this new look team hasn't proven much yet but, they may have one os the easiest paths to the College Football Playoff. In Big 10 play, the Ducks only have two ranked matchups against Penn State and Indiana which is a massive win. Even if Dan Lanning's team fell to both, they'd still have an incredible chance to make the Playoff with just two losses.

The Texas Longhorns are in a hole to start the College Football season but, they still have a great chance to make the Playoff. The next three games should allow Texas to get to 3-1 before they get back into the swing of big games. Games against Florida, Oklahoma, Georgia, and Texas A&M will determine the teams fate but, if the offense can find a rhythm in this short stretch against bad opponents, the defense is good enough to beat any team.

Brian Kelly and the LSU Tigers finally snapping their season opening losing streak has them on the right path for playoff contention and a win over Clemson is one of the best any team will get this season. The reason LSU isn’t higher in the likelihood to make the College Football Playoff is how daunting the schedule is. The Tigers still have massive games against Florida, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Alabama, and Oklahoma that make it tough to pencil them into the top group this soon.

The Georgia Bulldogs still have plenty to prove as they replace so many key pieces but, we've seen time and time again under Kirby Smart that they don't rebuild they reload. This schedule isn't easy by any means as games against Alabama, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Florida, Texas, and Georgia Tech all loom but, Week 1 may have shown us that a few of those games aren't as tough as they seemed. Until Kirby Smart has a down season, it's impossible to believe that Georgia will fall outside of that group of schools constantly in the Top 10.

When the College Football Playoff expanded to 12 teams, James Franklin and Penn State were seen as one of the biggest benefactors. The Nittany Lions should be 3-0 before their first test against Top 10 opponent Oregon and if James Franklin can finally win a big game, it'll all but lock this team into a Playoff spot. Penn State has an easier schedule in Big Ten play and one win over Oregon, Ohio State, or Indiana should be enough if they handle business everywhere else to make the Playoff.

When Miami kicked off it's season against Notre Dame it gave the Hurricanes the chance to either put themselves on the fast track for the College Football Playoff or to have a steep uphill climb. Beating Notre Dame proves Miami is improved enough on defense this season to win in the ACC and with Clemson looking vulnerable against LSU, the Hurricanes are the team to beat. The biggest question will be whether Miami can make the Playoff without winning the ACC but, if they can win at least 1 game over Florida, Florida State, or SMU, it should give the team enough resume points to make the Playoff.

The Ohio State Buckeyes have the inside track to making the College Football Playoff with one of the best wins in the Country after knocking off at the time top ranked Texas. After a massive matchup, the Buckeyes take two weeks off playing weaker opponents before they need to ramp it back up again at the start of Big Ten play. The Buckeyes only have three ranked games remaining and if they can beat at least one of Penn State, Illinois, or Michigan while holding serve in games they should win easily, they'll be back in the Playoff.

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