The Florida Gators Are Primed For Regression In 2013

Jan 2, 2013; New Orleans, LA, USA; Florida Gators head coach Will Muschamp during the first half of their game against the Louisville Cardinals at the Sugar Bowl at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports

Florida won 11 games in its breakout year under fiery and promising head coach Will Muschamp. Las Vegas set the over/under win total on this season’s Gators at 9.5.

There are plenty of indicators suggesting this year’s Gators are destined for the under. Florida may be headed for regression, and it could be severe.

Florida’s success is primarily contingent on three elements. First and foremost is quarterback Jeff Driskel’s progress, which given the vote of confidence UF has been given as a preseason top 10 nominee, experts seem to assume will be considerable.

Driskel was among the most celebrated prospects of the 2011, and undeniably talented. He has had his struggles in his two collegiate seasons, though.

Last year, Driskel was adequate but not a game changer. He completed better than 63 percent of his pass attempts, but threw just 12 touchdowns 1646 yards. He had an opportunity to display his mobility, gaining over 400 yards (nearly 200 of which came against Vanderbilt), but the Gators’ current running back situation might require him to do even more on the ground. More on that in a bit.

Certainly two seasons’ worth of experience and an offseason better familiarizing himself with offensive coordinator Brent Pease will lead to improvement.

Driskel must take a monumental leap, however, because Florida simply must score more than 26.5 points per game (25.9 vs. the SEC) to match last season’s success. With a considerable chunk of last year’s stellar defense gone for the NFL, the Gators won’t be able to bank exclusively on shutting down the opposition.

UF managed without an explosive offense last season, instead relying on a whopping 1.12 per game turnover margin, seventh best in the nation.

Repeating without the likes of Jon Bostic, Sharrif Floyd and Matt Elam is a tall order, which experts took into consideration evaluating another 2012 top 10 turnover differential beneficiary.

Like Florida, Kansas State won 11 games last season. Departures from its Big 12 championship-winning roster prompted pundits to peg the Wildcats for regression. To wit, K-State appears on neither preseason poll.

Now, UF doesn’t have nearly the same turnover on its defensive staff as K-State, which replaces 10 starters from the nation’s No. 3 highest beneficiary of turnover margin.

However, Florida has also not won the turnover battle as consistently under its current staff as K-State. In the four seasons since Bill Snyder returned to the sidelines in Manhattan, the Wildcats have always finished on the plus-side of turnover margin and no lower than No. 35 nationally.

Conversely, UF completely reversed its takeaway fortune from 2011 to 2012. The Gators were actually victim to one of the largest negative turnover differential disparities in Muschamp’s first season as head coach, on the wrong end of .92 takeaways per game. Only seven teams in the Bowl Subdivision were worse.
Nov 24, 2012; Tallahassee, FL, USA; Florida Gators quarterback Jeff Driskel (6) against the Florida State Seminoles during the first half at Doak Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Liles-USA TODAY Sports
The defense is unlikely to set the table as neatly for Driskel and the offense as it did a season ago. Driskel will also not have the same level of ground support he did in 2012.

Gone is Mike Gillislee, he of the 1152 yards and 10 touchdowns. The competition to replace Gillislee as primary ball carrier has been a mess.

Veteran front runner Matt Jones came out of fall camp with a viral infection, from which he has yet to recover. Jones’ absence has rendered the Gator running back depth chart one of the more confounding story lines heading into Week 1.

Rarely utilized junior Mack Brown is No. 1, with a former walk-on, Mark Herndon, listed ahead of ballyhooed true freshman Kelvin Taylor. All three are total mysteries.

The Gator roster is not lacking for talent, and would overcome its deficincies against most opponents. The operative word there is most, and Florida happens to draw a schedule rife with the exceptions.

Drawing Miami early in the year works against the Florida Gators. Al Golden will lead one of the most veteran teams in the nation against one of the youngest.

Florida should still be working out its defensive makeup in Week 2, while Miami quarterback Stephen Morris is capable of attacking in much the same fashion as Teddy Bridgewater during January’s Sugar Bowl.

The U’s most glaring weaknesses are on defense, which forces the Gators to score. That plays directly against UF’s own Achilles’ heel.

SEC scheduling did the Gators no favors. Florida travels to LSU in a guaranteed cross-division rivalry game. On the heels of visiting Death Valley, UF goes to Missouri.

The Gators’ inaugural visit to Columbia, Mo. comes before the bye week. UF came out ahead by one score last season in one of the uglier contests of 2012. Missouri should be much improved this time.

A loss against LSU compounds the importance of holding off the MU Tigers and entering the bye week with confidence, because the back-stretch is make-or-break.

UF draws Georgia in the annual, neutral field rivalry game and the prospect of a three-game losing skid (both in the series and on the year) is very real.

Vanderbilt visits Gainesville before a road trip to South Carolina. The Gamecocks were blasted on their trip to Ben Hill Griffin Stadium last season, 44-11.

Florida’s turnover margin success was never more evident than in this contest, when it gained four to South Carolina’s none. The Gators scored on drives of 29, 11, two and one yard. That translates to one point every 1.5 yards.

After such a catastrophic performance against his former program in 2012, rest assured Steve Spurrier has this date double-circled on his 2013 calendar.

After the obligatory SEC bodybag week, Florida closes with Florida State. This could be another clash of 10 win teams, as it was last November. This could just as easily be Florida’s chance to put a disappointing season behind it and lay the foundation for 2014, when Driskel will be a senior and the bevy of talent Muschamp has recruited is more seasoned.