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Pac-12 Football: Best Over/Under Bets for 2015 Season

By Brenton Lillie

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It is almost time for the college football season to get going, and so we look through the Pac-12 to find the best over/under bets in the conference. 

August seems to be flying by for the kids who see their looming start date to go back to school, but for college football fans, the month is nothing but one long, agonizing tease before things get started in early September.

During this time, fans and coaches alike assess their team and the chances they have of making some noise in the conference, and maybe even the nation. Some teams seem overrated, some the opposite.

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One thing is certain though, every year there are surprise teams that massively over perform. At the same time, some programs spiral down into a dysfunctional good due to the pressure of preseason hype and early season losses.

The over/under totals for the teams of the Pac-12 are out, and there are a couple of teams that caught my eye as the best bets. Now, college football is chaotic and strange things happen, but on paper it would seem that the oddsmakers were mistaken with these programs.

Oregon State – OVER 4 Wins

Okay, so plenty has happened during the offseason for the Beavers. Their head coach left. Their senior quarterback left. However, this is a team that won five games last year and has been a decent program over the last decade. Expecting the program to delve down into being the worst team in the conference is expecting way too little.

For one, their veteran quarterback last year was not that good. Oregon State ranked 11th out of 12 teams in passing efficiency in 2014, and they tied for 10th place in the number of sacks given up. Great quarterbacks do not get sacked, and they get the ball down the field.

Related: Oregon State Season Preview and Prediction

The second thing is that the Beavers have two cupcake games early in the season with home dates against Weber State and San Jose State. That is half their expected in total right there, and they still host Colorado and Washington, two teams also expected to compete for worst in the conference, and road games against the dreadful Cal Golden Bears and Washington State Cougars. Of those four winnable games, if the Beavers take just two wins, you already push your bet.

Third, the stats show that Oregon State was a better team than their record showed last year, as they were one of the worst teams in the PAC-12 in red zone offense, and often kicked field goals instead of scoring touchdowns. This is why their yards per play average, 5.4, ranks ninth, but their scoring offense was dead last. They could gain yards, but they did so at a deliberate pace and often had trouble converting first downs and punching the ball into the end zone. They ranked dead last in third down conversion rate, and somehow also came in last in opponents third down conversion rate.

Basically, this team was absolutely terrible when it really mattered, and not that bad when it did not. A new coach and a new quarterback are two things that could actually improve those statistics.

Finally, Corvallis, OR. is a tough place to play. Every year a contender comes into Beaver Stadium expecting an easy victory and instead gets a dogfight. Last season was no exception as the Arizona State Sun Devils came to Oregon controlling their own destiny in the Pac-12 South race. They left Oregon bitterly disappointed by their 37-31 defeat to the Beavers. There is something about those November games in the Pacific Northwest that brings out the best in this team.

UCLA – UNDER 9.5 Wins

Are we really ready to anoint UCLA as the class of the Pac-12 despite the fact that they have proven an inability to get over the hump late in the season the last few years? Not only that, but to get to 10 wins, you almost have to assume a bowl game win. Otherwise, with only 12 games on the regular season schedule, going 10-2 might be unrealistic. After all, look at the teams the Bruins have to face.

They start the season with a game against the Virginia Cavaliers, a contest that could easily go awry. Virginia is not a powerhouse by any means, but it is a program in a power five conference that has legitimate athletes on the roster. Despite a poor season last year, the Cavaliers still gave the Bruins everything they could handle in a narrow defeat in Virginia in 2014.

Related: UCLA Season Preview and Prediction

After that, the team travels to Nevada to face UNLV. While the Rebels are not on the same tier as the Bruins, we have seen how these smaller schools gear up all summer for a game where they host a power five conference team, especially if that team in a contender. This will test UCLA as the crowd and the opponent will be fired up. Every ounce of talent will be squeezed out of the Rebel players in the first half of football, and beware if the road team falters early, giving life to the underdog.

Home against BYU, in Tucson against the defending South champion Arizona Wildcats before returning home to face a hungry, and vengeful Arizona State squad. That is a tough start to the season, and it only gets worse from here. An away game against the Stanford Cardinal, and then they travel to Corvallis and Salt Lake City in November before visiting cross town rival USC to end the regular season.

Do you really see at least nine wins? The early season will wear them down, and that November schedule is absolutely brutal. If this team makes it to 10 wins, I will be very, very surprised.

Next: Pac-12: Top 5 Candidates to win Offensive Player of the Year

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