Big Ten East: Over, under or pass on each team’s season win total

Will your favorite team from the Big Ten East exceed their expected win total for the 2015 season or fall short and come in under?

College football is just over a week away so now is a good time to look at posted season win totals and make predictions. I looked at each Big Ten West earlier.

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Now I will break down the seven teams in the Big Ten East, which is the stronger division in the conference. I was very selective with my picks and passed some of the teams because I think the line is correct.

Indiana: Over/Under 5.5 wins – Indiana has made one bowl appearance since 1994 and this projected win total is asking them to be bowl eligible. The program has shown progress under coach Kevin Wilson but they lose their star offensive player in running back Tevin Coleman. The Hoosiers should be 3-1 or 4-0 heading into conference play. There are winnable games in the conference but it’s hard to trust a team that hasn’t won six games in over 20 years. The play: Pass

Maryland: Over/Under 4.5 wins – The Terrapins showed promise in their first year in the Big Ten by finishing 7-5 in the 2014 regular season. However, 2015 looks to be like a rebuilding year for Maryland. They have three home non-conference games that they will be favorites in but two more wins after that might be a challenge playing in the Big Ten East. They might be sitting on four wins when they travel to Rutgers on the final day of the season and that game could decide whether they finish over or under. The play: Pass

Michigan: Over/Under 7.5 wins – It might take a few games but I believe Jim Harbaugh will bring success to Michigan by the end of his first season in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines get a challenge right away at Utah in the first Thursday of the season. Even if they lose that game I think they will win at least eight games. Michigan plays Michigan State and Ohio State in Ann Arbor, and get Northwestern and Minnesota from the Big Ten West. Michigan has recruited well the last few seasons, and now I think Harbaugh will be able to coach up the players. The play: Over 7.5 wins (-150)

Michigan State: Over/Under 9.5 wins – Michigan State will be a heavy favorite in seven of their games this season and the other five will be tighter spreads. They have a must-win game in Week 2 against Oregon at home. If win that game then there will be a lot of hype surrounding this team and expectations to be in the College Football Playoff. Their four tough conference games are road trips to Michigan, Nebraska and Ohio State, and the regular season finale against Penn State. The Spartans might have a drop off on defense with defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi departing to Pittsburgh. However, I think Connor Cook can have led Michigan State and be in the Heisman Trophy race. The away games in the Big Ten will be a challenge so I’m not confident enough to predict 10 wins. The play: Pass

Ohio State: Over/Under 11.5 wins – This prop is asking if Ohio State will go undefeated in the regular season. The Buckeyes were listed as a double-digit favorite in every game posted by the Golden Nugget sportsbook back in late June. This includes contests against Virginia Tech, Penn State, Michigan State and Michigan. Taking the over seems like a “public” play but I would still do it. Ohio State showed how much talent and depth they had in the College Football Playoff last year. They have two quarterbacks who could start for most teams in the country. The reason they were big underdogs in their two College Football Playoff games last year was because no one knew that Cardale Jones would play so well on the big stage. Ohio State’s best opponent is Michigan State and that game will be in Columbus. Take Ohio State to start the season 12-0. The Play: Over 11.5 wins (-115)

Penn State: Over/Under 8 wins – The Nittany Lions could start the year 6-0, although a home game against San Diego State could be a tough test. They then play at Ohio State. They play Michigan and go to Michigan State to end the season. Penn State catches Michigan at a good time because the Wolverines host Ohio State the week after. I can see Penn State at eight wins going into the final game of the season against Michigan State. People are impressed with the job James Franklin has done in over a year at the program. Their win total was 7.5 earlier in the summer, and because of that I will pass on over eight wins with the best number gone. The Play: Pass

Rutgers: Over/Under 5.5 wins – Rutgers maybe have the most difficult schedule out of the Big Ten East teams. Their cross-division opponents are Wisconsin and Nebraska, and they face a revenge-minded Washington State early in the season. The schedule might be the least of Rutgers worries with the news on coach Kyle Flood’s rule violation. I was thinking under 5.5 wins before the Flood news and the timing of this all makes me more confident that Rutgers will fail to make a bowl game. The Play: Under 5.5 wins (-130)

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