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Big Ten West: Over, under or pass on each team’s season win total

By Nate Jacobson

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Will your favorite Big Ten West team exceed expectations or fall short of their expected win total this year? 

The college football season is just over a week away but preparation for the season began a long time ago. As early as May, there were season win totals posted for all 128 teams on an online sportsbook.

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Numbers have slightly changed throughout the summer with injury and suspension news. Now is a good time to look a the current numbers and make predictions.

I will start with the teams in the Big Ten West in alphabetical order. I was very selective when picking an over and under for each team because I wanted to give my strongest opinion. I think the projected win total is correct for some teams, so in that case I would pass.

Illinois: Over/Under 4.5 wins – Illinois went 2-10 in 2012, 4-8 in 2013 and 6-6 in 2014 under coach Tim Beckman. I guarantee they won’t continue the trend and win eight games in 2015. However, that’s not the question here as their win total has been posted at a much lower 4.5. Illinois could finish non-conference play 3-1. Unfortunately for the Fighting Illini, they draw Penn State and Ohio State from the Big Ten East. They only play three true home games in conference and those are against Nebraska, Wisconsin and Ohio State. After an eventful offseason for Beckman, I think Illinois will struggle this season and he will be fired. The Play: Under 4.5 wins (-130)

Iowa: Over/Under 7.5 wins – For the second straight season Iowa avoids Ohio State, Michigan State, Michigan and Penn State from the Big Ten West. Last season there were high expectations for the Hawkeyes with the favorable schedule but they ended up 7-5 before being embarrassed in their bowl game against a motivated Tennessee squad. Iowa has a revenge game against Iowa State in Week 2 followed by a home date with Pittsburgh. The schedule makes it tempting to be confident with the over but I wouldn’t put my money on a Kirk Ferentz team to overachieve. Iowa also lost offensive lineman Brandon Scherff so I’m going to stay away here. The Play: Pass

Minnesota: Over/Under 6 wins – Minnesota won eight games last season and have done a great job under head coach Jerry Kill. They lost tight end Maxx Williams and running back David Cobb to the NFL so this season might not be as good for the Golden Gophers. They are tested immediately in Week 1 against a TCU team that still might be angry about being omitted from the College Football Playoff. Minnesota plays Michigan and Ohio State from the Big Ten West just like they did in 2014. The Golden Gophers had some good fortune last year and won three games by seven points or less. I think the losses to Williams and Cobb will hurt them and there is a much better chance they win five games instead of seven. If they win six game then we get a push so I’m willing to take the under here, especially with plus-money on the under. The Play: Under 6 wins (+120)

Nebraska: Over/Under 8 wins – Nebraska fired Bo Pelini and brought in an offensive-minded coach in Mike Riley. I think that could benefit quarterback Tommy Armstrong in his third year as a starter. Nebraska opens against BYU and has to go to Miami later in non-conference play. They draw Michigan State and Rutgers from the East. Their two toughest conference games, against Wisconsin and Michigan State, are in Lincoln. I think winning less than nine games will be a disappointment and I see Nebraska competing to win the Big Ten West. The Play: Over 8 wins (-150)

Northwestern: Over/Under 6 wins – Northwestern finished a disappointing 5-7 last year despite wins at Penn State and Notre Dame, and a home upset of Wisconsin. The non-conference schedule isn’t easy with a home game against Stanford and a trip to Duke. They draw Michigan and Penn State from the East. I think Northwestern returns to a bowl game in 2015 but not sure if they will reach seven wins. Now the team can focus on football instead of unionizing and Pat Fitzgerald will get the most out of his players. I won’t play the over though because I think they will win exactly six games. The play: Pass

Purdue: Over/Under 4 – I think Purdue is the weakest team in the Big Ten and have a really hard time seeing five wins from the Boilermakers. At best they will be 2-2 after non-conference play with losses to Marshall and Virginia Tech. Their best chance for a Big Ten win is at home against Illinois or Indiana. I don’t see them winning both games. If they do win four games then it’s a push but I think three wins is much more likely for this team. The Play: Under 4 wins (even odds)

Wisconsin: Over/Under 9.5 wins – This win total is projected perfectly. Wisconsin opens the season against Alabama on a neutral site, which is quite the open to the Paul Chryst era in Madison. Chryst is familiar with program so it should be a smooth transition. Running back Corey Clement should do a fine job replacing Melvin Gordon but the issue for the Badgers is quarterback Joel Stave. When Wisconsin starts to trail in a game and are forced to throw, Stave can’t be relied upon. The schedule is favorable enough where they should win nine or 10 games. Their toughest conference game is at Nebraska. The home schedule is Miami (Ohio), Troy, Hawaii, Iowa, Purdue, Rutgers and Northwestern. Hard to decide if this team will win nine or 10 games so going to pass on the Badgers. The play: Pass

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