Big Ten Predictions: Picking every game against the spread for Week 4

Making picks against the spread for every Big Ten game for Week 4.

It’s a good time to be a fan of Big Ten football fan. The top two teams in the AP Poll are from the conference. Michigan is looking to be relevant again under Jim Harbaugh. The Big Ten West looks to be wide open this season, which can lead to a really fun end of the season.

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Non-conference play is wrapping up and I will pick every game against the spread this week. I already picked against Minnesota and Illinois in my best bets article so check that out.

BYU at Michigan (-6.5)

I don’t know who scheduled BYU’s non-conference slate but they really made sure it was a challenge for the Cougars. They already have played Nebraska, Boise State and UCLA. Now they make the long trip to Ann Arbor after falling late at UCLA in Week 3. A really bad scheduling spot for BYU and I expect Michigan to take advantage.

Pick: Michigan (-6.5)

Central Michigan at Michigan State (-27)

Michigan State is 3-0 and ranked No. 2 in the country. That is a nice position for Mark Dantonio’s squad but the only stat that matters in this article is the Spartans are 0-3 against the spread number. Michigan State just wants to get out of this game without injury and “little brother” Central Michigan will cherish an opportunity to play an in-state foe.

Pick: Central Michigan (+27)

Southern Miss at Nebraska (-22)

Nebraska was in Miami last week and have a conference game on deck. The normal system play would be to fade them this week. However, I think the Cornhuskers will be focused on this game after coming off an overtime loss. Also their first conference game is against Illinois so they shouldn’t be looking ahead to that game.

Pick: Nebraska (-22)

San Diego State at Penn State (-15)

Penn State is over a two-touchdown favorite but the total for this game is 39.5. Hard to disagree that this will be a low-scoring game as both offenses have struggled this season. Since the scoring will be low I will also pick this game to stay close.

Pick: San Diego State (+15)

Bowling Green (-5.5) at Purdue

The line has gone in the MAC’s schools favor because Purdue is benching quarterback Austin Appleby for David Blough. The over/under in this one is 75 so expect a lot of points. I don’t see Purdue scoring as much as they need to so I will take Bowling Green to cover and beat their second Big Ten team this season.

Pick: Bowling Green (-5.5)

Kansas at Rutgers (-14)

This spread is about right but there are two factors in favor of the Jayhawks here. Kansas really needs to win this game or they might flirt with going 0-12 this season. Also Rutgers coach Kyle Flood is suspended for this game and the Scarlet Knights struggled in a 28-3 loss to Penn State without their coach. Kansas will cover before Big 12 play begins.

Pick: Kansas (+14)

Western Michigan at Ohio State (-31.5)

Ohio State has failed to cover the last two weeks but they have been bet up from 28 points to 31.5 point in this game. Cardale Jones is getting the start at quarterback, and I can’t trust him and the Buckeyes offense score at will. Ohio State won’t figure out their offensive woes yet but they have some time with a soft conference schedule to figure out the kinks.

Pick: Western Michigan (+31.5)

Indiana (-3.5) at Wake Forest

After three home wins, Indiana hits the road to face Wake Forest. This is a game the Hoosiers absolutely needs to win if they want to make a bowl game. Wake Forest quarterback John Wolford is listed as doubtful so even the Indiana defense should set up Nate Sudfeld and the offense to have a big afternoon.

Pick: Indiana (-3.5)

Maryland at West Virginia (-16.5)

These two teams meet last season and West Virginia won a 40-37 thriller in College Park. Both teams are very different now but the drop off for Maryland is much more significant, and that’s reflected in the line. West Virginia plays at Oklahoma next week so I don’t expect them to run up the score here.

Pick: Maryland (+16.5)

North Texas at Iowa (-25)

This game was almost included in my best bets article but I don’t trust North Texas. This is the definition of a sandwich game for the Hawkeyes. They just beat Pittsburgh on a dramatic fielding goal as time expired. Next week they have their Big Ten opener at rival Wisconsin. Most of those players are probably looking ahead to that game but now they need to face North Texas and wait a week. Iowa will just want to get out of this game healthy. I also don’t think Iowa is a good enough team to be this big of a favorite.

Pick: North Texas (+25)

Ball State at Northwestern (-20)

Northwestern is getting some love in the rankings and their win against Stanford looks even more impressive as Stanford downed USC last week. I can see the Wildcats defense putting on another impressive showing before conference play begins. I actually really hope Northwestern wins big so they are overvalued and we can bet against them in Big Ten play.

Pick: Northwestern (-20)

Hawaii at Wisconsin (-24.5)

Wisconsin had a clunker of a performance against Troy but I think they get back on track here. Hawaii is making their second trip to the continental United States in the last two weeks so a tough travel spot for the Rainbow Warriors. Keep a close eye on Joel Stave who has put up much improved numbers now that Paul Chryst is the head coach.

Pick: Wisconsin (-24.5)

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