SEC Football: 2015 quickly turning into worst-case scenario

By Michael Collins | Oct 21, 2015

SEC football still has some of the best teams, players and coaches in the nation, but the 2015 season is shaping up to be a nightmare for the conference that used to constantly sit on top of the world.

In 2013, the SEC lost their first national championship game in eight seasons when Florida State toppled Auburn in the BCS Championship game. In 2014, they didn’t even make it to the national title game with Alabama being upset by Ohio State in the newly formed playoff system.

If things keep going the way they have been, 2015 could be the year that the SEC doesn’t even have a shot at a national title, as they could be the one Power-5 conference who gets shut out of the playoffs.

In the past, it was a foregone conclusion that the SEC champion would be either in the national title game or at the very least, in the hunt for it. Depending on how things play out, it might not matter who wins the SEC, because parity, upsets and some disappointing teams are causing a log jam in both divisions.

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The SEC East hasn’t been the strongest division in the conference during recent seasons, but in the preseason most of the media anointed Georgia as the probable division champ, with South Carolina coming in a close second.

The SEC West, which has dominated the headlines and the rankings in the last few years, was handed to Auburn in the preseason, with Alabama leading the rest of the pack.

So far, neither of those predictions are even close to true.

But what has happened is a bit of conference cannibalism, with upsets ruining some seasons, and with teams like South Carolina, Auburn and Arkansas just imploding from the word go.

The worst-case scenario for the SEC is unfortunately a very real possibility, which would be two different 2-loss teams playing in an SEC Championship game which will essentially mean nothing other than who gets to go to a New Year’s Six bowl. No playoffs. No title. No chance.

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In the East, you have Florida bringing a surprising 4-1 conference record into the Cocktail Party against Georgia (who has two conference losses) on October 31. The best thing for the East (and the SEC) would be for Florida to win that game and win out the remainder of the season. But the Gators are missing their starting quarterback, and the game against Georgia is never a certain thing for either side (just ask the 2014 Bulldogs).

Then there’s Kentucky, also sitting with just two conference losses, who is yet to play Georgia, and has already lost to Florida. If Georgia beats Florida, and loses to Kentucky, then the tiebreaker goes to the Gators (who would have two losses at that point). However, if Georgia wins out, then they will represent the SEC East in the championship game…with two losses.

Oct 10, 2015; Tuscaloosa, AL, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban talks to Arkansas Razorbacks head coach Bret Bielema prior to the game against Arkansas Razorbacks at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports

Head spinning yet?

The SEC West is even more confusing.

Sitting on top of the West is undefeated LSU. The keepers of the SEC shield had best hope the Bayou Bengals run the table and keep that zero in the loss column. But LSU still has to face Alabama (one conference loss), Arkansas, Ole Miss (two losses, one conference loss), and Texas A&M (one conference loss).

Here’s where it gets messy.

An LSU loss to any one of those teams sends the tiebreaker tables into overdrive, and begins to make heads explode. The ugliest possibility for the West is to see Ole Miss win out. That would put a 2-loss Ole Miss team in the title game.

Think about that scenario for a moment. A 10-2 Ole Miss team, with losses to Florida and Memphis, facing a 10-2 Georgia team with losses to Alabama and Tennessee…for the SEC title.

And the playoff selection committee chuckles.

It’s possible that Alabama could win out, and make the title game with just the one loss to Ole Miss. But does that Alabama team with one loss trump….say…an undefeated Utah or Iowa? Doubtful. Oh, and what about that undefeated Memphis team that just upset Ole Miss. If their record remains unblemished, would the committee pick an SEC team with one or two losses over that Group of Five champ?

That is the worst case for the SEC…sitting home while the American Athletic Conference champ gets a shot in the playoffs.

Outside of LSU going undefeated, the best shot the SEC will have at the playoffs is if the Big 12 champ has one loss, and no championship game to boost their resume.

Given what’s happened already this season, that could be highly unlikely.

Next: 5 Biggest Disappointments of the First Half of 2015

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