Mountain West Predictions: Week 9 picks against the spread

Making predictions against the spread for every game in the Mountain West this week.

Besides its beautiful beaches, Hawaii is also known for having extraordinarily patient football fans. So when you hear that Rainbow Warriors coach Norm Chow is on the hot seat, you know things aren’t going well in Honolulu. In the middle of another dismal season, it wouldn’t surprise anyone if this Saturday’s game against Air Force is Chow’s swan song.

First, the facts: At 2-6 overall and 0-4 in the Mountain West, Hawaii will need to win their final five regular-season games to avoid their fifth consecutive losing season. Chow, in the fourth year of a five-year contract, has had to deal with a brutal early-season schedule and injuries this season. Games at Ohio State, Wisconsin and Boise State would’ve been a challenge for any team, let alone Hawaii.

While there were some encouraging signs against Ohio State, the Rainbow Warriors are riding a five-game losing streak heading into Saturday’s contest against the Falcons. Chow, who was once known as an innovative offensive genius, now presides over a team that ranks near the bottom of the Mountain West in nearly every offensive and defensive category.

In a season that has already seen eight head coaching jobs open up, it’s easy to think the 69-year-old Chow could be next to go. It’s not entirely his fault, of course. (If you’re interested in a great look at the Hawaii program, check out a story by Sports Illustrated’s Lindsay Schnell in Campus Rush from last month.)

The Hawaii job is fraught with challenges, and Chow might not have the necessary energy. Here’s thinking he’s replaced by a much younger coach as soon as this season comes to a merciful end. Now onto our picks for this week’s Air Force-Hawaii battle and the rest of an abbreviated Mountain West slate.

Results
Last week: 1-4 ATS. Overall: 24-32 ATS
Note: Games involving FCS teams had no line and have not been included in ATS picks.

Wyoming at Utah State (-27.5): Running back Brian Hill is the best player in the conference you’re not watching, but unfortunately he’s about the only reason to check out the Cowboys. We don’t know what happened to Utah State in last week’s debacle against San Diego State, but the Aggies will get back on track at home, where they’ve won 12 consecutive games and 21 of their last 23.

Wyoming is down to its third-string QB as senior quarterback Cameron Coffman is doubtful after separating his shoulder in last week’s 34-14 loss to Boise State. The Utah State defense has gained 18 turnovers, which ties for fifth nationally, and should add to that number against the lowly Cowboys. Pick: Utah State -27.5

San Diego State (-3) at Colorado State: Regular readers know we’re not huge believers in San Diego State this season, but there’s no denying the importance of the Aztecs’ 48-14 win over Utah State last Saturday. San Diego State is now the only team still unbeaten in league play and feature the league’s leading MVP candidate in Donnel Pumphrey, who rushed for 181 yards and two touchdowns against the Aggies.

Now we’ll see if the Aztecs can get it done on the road against Colorado State, which has lost two of its past three games and four of its past six. San Diego State has won seven of the last 10 meetings against Colorado State, including four straight. We like the Aztecs to run Pumphrey all day long against the Rams, who are 106th nationally in rush defense. Pick: San Diego State -3

Air Force (-7) at Hawaii: The Rainbow Warriors are catching the Falcons at a bad time. Air Force is 3-1 in conference play, including a dominant win over Fresno State last Saturday. Interestingly, Air Force hasn’t led at any time in three games on the road. That figures to change this week against Hawaii, which has lost five of its last six meetings against the Falcons.

Air Force is running the ball 85 percent of the time and will have plenty of success against a struggling Rainbow Warriors defense. Air Force quarterback Karson Roberts rushed for a career-high four touchdowns last week and could be named the Mountain West Offensive Player of the Week  after another impressive performance against Hawaii. Pick: Air Force -7

Boise State (-20) at UNLV: The injury bug is catching up to Boise State, which lost senior left tackle Rees Odhiambo to a broken ankle last Saturday against Wyoming. It shouldn’t matter against the Rebels, which has lost two straight games they could have easily won.

Broncos quarterback Brett Rypien has completed nearly 66 percent of his passes for 1,567 yards and 10 touchdowns and should shred a UNLV defense that doesn’t scare anyone. The Rebels are expected to have quarterback Blake Decker back as the starter after he missed the last two games, and that could help keep things close for a while.

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We’re guessing Boise State takes control late behind running back Jeremy McNichols, who has 16 total touchdowns, which is second-best in the FBS behind Baylor’s Corey Coleman (18). Pick: UNLV +20