College Football Playoff Rankings: Ohio State a lock for No. 1?

The first College Football Playoff rankings will be released on Tuesday evening, but here’s how the top four should look when the committee reveals the list.

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With Ohio State, LSU, Baylor, Michigan State and Alabama on a bye this week, there were few opportunities for major upsets in Week 9 that would disrupt the foundation for the first College Football Playoff rankings.

The Buckeyes are the No. 1 team in the nation and the defending champions have been there all season despite some uneven performances throughout the year. Ohio State is a lock to be in the top four when the committee unveils their first rankings on Tuesday night on ESPN, but will the Buckeyes claim the top spot?

If this was released three weeks ago, a case could have been made for another team to usurp them for the top spot, but with the way they’ve looked in October, there is no doubt they will take the top spot in the College Football Playoff rankings.

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The real drama is who takes the next three spots from a field that includes four undefeated teams in the Baylor Bears, TCU Horned Frogs, LSU Tigers and Clemson Tigers.

All of them have a case to be the No. 2 team in the rankings, but I think Leonard Fournette pushes LSU into the No. 2 spot as the only undefeated team left in the SEC. He’s the Heisman front-runner but the continued development of sophomore Brandon Harris gives the offense balance so they won’t have to rely solely on Fournette. LSU travels to Alabama on Saturday and if they get a win there, they can have a case to take the top spot from Ohio State next Tuesday.

Clemson was the best team to play this week and Deshaun Watson made his case as the nation’s best quarterback with a six-touchdown performance against NC State as the Tigers prepare to host Florida State next Saturday. With their win over Notre Dame, Dabo Swinney’s team has a signature win that the two teams from the Big 12 don’t.

So that leaves two spots for one Big 12 team. I’m not sure what to make of TCU or Baylor yet this year. Both have incredibly prolific offenses with TCU led by Heisman candidate Trevone Boykin and Baylor led by Seth Russell prior to his season-ending neck surgery last Saturday.

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Both also have glaring weaknesses on defense and have Oklahoma and unbeaten Oklahoma State left on the schedule.

I’m not sure either will get through the schedule unblemished, but with the uncertainty surrounding the Bears quarterback position, I think the Playoff committee gives the nod to TCU, who felt the wrath of the committee last year but get the benefit of the doubt this time.

The next two in are Baylor and an Alabama team that could jump an undefeated team next week with a win over LSU.

This is a fluid situation and as we saw last year when Mississippi State and Ole Miss were in the top four, a lot can change between Nov. 3 and the final rankings in December.