With a healthier offense in 2017, UCLA football hopes to make up for the loss of defensive talent. Will it be enough to contend in the PAC-12 South this season?
Last year, UCLA tumbled to a 4-8 record and missed out on a bowl game for the first time since the Rick Neuheisel era. After hopes of a dark-horse run at a national title last year, the Bruins lost their opening game to Texas A&M in overtime and continued to slip down the standings from there. Their only two Pac-12 wins came against Arizona and Oregon State, both at home.
UCLA, though, wasn’t necessarily as bad as their record asserted. Four of their losses came by a touchdown or less, and better luck could easily turn the Bruins into a bowl-eligible team. Injuries derailed last year’s dreams of contending for the conference and a New Year’s Six berth, and Jim Mora’s team will be keen to turn those stalled dreams into belated reality.
They will have to do so with an experienced offense. Josh Rosen returns at quarterback, healthy again after injuries cut his 2016 campaign short, as do eight other starters. But the defense is going to have to retool quickly after losing six starters. Four players from last year’s dominant defensive unit were selected in the 2017 NFL Draft. No level of the defense was immune from the losses.
But after five straight years of top-20 recruiting classes, the fan base has reason to be confident about a rebound in 2017. How far the Bruins can go depends on how well the defense emerges as a group and whether Rosen remains healthy. Can the Bruins actually threaten the favorites in the Pac-12 this year? Click ahead for our game-by-game predictions for the 2017 UCLA season.
Last year’s showdown between Texas A&M and UCLA was the first meeting since the 1998 Cotton Bowl. It was also the Bruins’ first-ever visit to Kyle Field, as the teams’ three previous meetings before the Cotton Bowl all came in Pasadena. It proved to be an instant classic that required extra time to decide the matter.
In that game, Josh Rosen completed 26 of his 46 attempts for 343 yards and a touchdown. Unfortunately, he also completed three passes to Aggies defenders. UCLA’s defense held firm after each pick, forcing a missed 38-yard field goal attempt, a punt and a turnover on downs on the three ensuing drives. The last stop forced overtime
Texas A&M ultimately won when Trevor Knight ran into the endzone for the winning touchdown, and the Aggies defense batted down Rosen’s fourth-down pass on UCLA’s overtime drive. A similar type of game could transpire this season. Texas A&M, though, has its own rebuilding issues.
Nick Starkel, a redshirt sophomore will take over at quarterback. Gone also is Myles Garrett, the defensive lineman who was selected first overall by the Cleveland Browns in the 2017 NFL Draft. Rosen will drive the Bruins into position for a late field goal that wins the matchup in regulation.
FINAL: UCLA 27, Texas A&M 24 (1-0)
A decade after their shining moment as a BCS Buster, Hawaii would love merely to get back to bowl eligibility again. Nick Rolovich led the Rainbow Warriors to a seven-win season in his first year as a head coach. Were they to take down UCLA in the Rose Bowl, it would establish Hawaii as a legitimate contender in the Mountain West this season.
Hawaii’s trip to Pasadena marks the first meeting between the Bruins and Rainbow Warriors in nearly eight decades. The two teams last faced one another on January 2, 1939 in the short-lived Poi Bowl, back during the first wave of bowl expansion. UCLA won 38-7 that time, and also won their only other contest in 1935.
Those games are long forgotten by all but the most ardent fans of the two teams. This year’s contest, though, could resemble that long-ago bowl game in one respect. The final margin of victory should look similar, as the Bruins defense begins to gel and Rosen has a big statistical performance in the first half before taking a well-deserved seat for good sometime in the third quarter.
Hawaii will still have a legitimate chance at returning to the postseason this year. But a statement win over a Power Five opponent will not come when the Rainbow Warriors make their September trip to Los Angeles.
FINAL: UCLA 48, Hawaii 17 (2-0)
Three years ago, Memphis traveled to California to face UCLA in the first-ever meeting between the two schools. The Tigers played the Bruins close, falling 42-35 in the Rose Bowl. Now, three years later, Jim Mora’s team is making the return trip to play in the Liberty Bowl against a Memphis team that will be an American Athletic Conference contender in 2017.
Last year, Memphis beat Kansas and lost at Ole Miss in their two opportunities against Power Five opponents. The Tigers ended the year 8-5 in Mike Norvell’s first year at the helm. Riley Ferguson returns this year at quarterback, along with eight other offensive starters. While the defense needs to replace five starters, they should remain a tough challenger for the Bruins.
If anything, this game could be even closer than the showdown three years ago that featured a quarterback duel between Paxton Lynch and Brett Hundley. This time around, it will be Riley Ferguson trying to knock off Josh Rosen’s Bruins. Look for the two teams to trade punches as their respective defenses continue to go through September growing pains.
Efficient offenses will continue to light up the Liberty Bowl scoreboard on the third Saturday of September. Memphis will get one more touchdown than the Bruins, but UCLA will put together eight total scoring drives. The last will put sophomore placekicker J.J. Molson in position for his third field goal of the game to win the game on the final play.
FINAL: UCLA 44, Memphis 42 (3-0)
UCLA’s undefeated record will come to an end when they continue their road trip up to the Bay Area. At Stanford, the Bruins will meet an opponent that is aiming at nothing short than a return to PAC-12 supremacy after a year off the top of the league. Despite the loss of Christian McCaffrey — or perhaps because of it — they could have a more dynamic and diverse offense in 2017.
Last year, McCaffrey racked up 165 all-purpose yards and two touchdowns on 29 total touches. The Cardinal took down UCLA in the Rose Bowl 22-13 en route to another 10-win season. But for David Shaw‘s crew, dropping to third in the Pac-12 North was a bitter slight they will hope to rectify this season.
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Replacing McCaffrey’s all-around production will be several players. Bryce Love will get the majority of the carries. He will be spelled by Cameron Scarlett as both a runner and pass catcher out of the backfield. Keller Chryst will also have a big game against the Bruins secondary this year.
UCLA’s rebuilt defense will finally break after bending perilously close to the snapping point throughout September. In a game that will likely feature two ranked teams, UCLA will emerge as the team with the mark in the loss column. They will need to rebound quickly on their return home from the road swing.
FINAL: Stanford 38, UCLA 27 (3-1)
Colorado is the defending Pac-12 South champion after surprising the field to snatch the division in 2016. The Buffaloes took down UCLA 20-10 in Boulder on the way to Santa Clara and the Pac-12 championship game. It was a sloppy win, as Sefo Liufau and Steven Montez combined for three interceptions and no touchdowns.
For Montez, it was an especially rough game in relief of Liufau. He threw one incomplete pass, and completed one pass to Shay Fields for 17 yards. His third pass was an interception snatched by Randall Goforth. He showed promise at times last season, but the Bruins will have a much more seasoned quarterback in what will likely be another close contest.
The key for UCLA will be getting its running game going. Last season, the Bruins posted just 25 total yards on 30 carries against the Buffaloes. That will not cut it if the Bruins hope to knock off the defending division champions and reinsert themselves into this year’s Pac-12 discussion.
Rosen will once again play an efficient game as UCLA moves to 4-1 on the season. Thanks to five Saturdays in the month, the Bruins will match last year’s win total before the end of September. Colorado is due for some regression this season, and UCLA will get fewer turnovers on defense but will capitalize better on their own chances offensively.
FINAL: UCLA 33, Colorado 28 (4-1)
After the win over Colorado, UCLA takes a bye week over the first weekend of October. They return to the field with another road trip to face Arizona. Last year Josh Rosen had a huge game against the Wildcats, completing 20 of 37 passes for 350 yards and three touchdowns. He added another touchdown on a goal-line carry.
The result was a 45-24 victory at home for the Bruins. It was one of the few bright spots of the season, as Arizona continued its plummet and UCLA merely delayed its fall down the division standings. The loss was another mark against Rich Rodriguez, who finds himself sweating out the hot seat in 2017 after missing a bowl for the first time with the Wildcats.
By midseason, we should already know whether Rich Rodriguez will be back for another season in Tucson. He could very well be a lame duck at this point of the season as the Bruins push Arizona one loss closer to another postseason absence. Rosen will have another big game against the Wildcats’ abysmal secondary.
With a huge win, UCLA will move to 5-1 at the midway point of their regular season. One win away from bowl eligibility, the Bruins will climb up the AP and Coaches polls ahead of the first release of the College Football Playoff standings on Halloween. The sixth win, though, is often the hardest to reach.
FINAL: UCLA 55, Arizona 24 (5-1)
It has now been a decade since UCLA took down Oregon, back when the Ducks were reeling from Dennis Dixon’s injury in 2007. Since that win, the Bruins have lost six straight in the series. That included the inaugural Pac-12 championship game, when the Bruins fell 49-31 at Autzen Stadium in 2011.
Like UCLA and several other Pac-12 teams last year, Oregon had a downswing in 2016 from which they hope to rebound this season. Sophomore quarterback Justin Herbert will develop over the course of the year and could go toe to toe with Josh Rosen in this mid-October duel. What Oregon has that UCLA lacks is a sound ground game, with returning Heisman hopeful Royce Freeman leading the way.
In the Rose Bowl, the Bruins secondary will bend but will also nab several interceptions off Herbert. The sophomore will shake off each pick and return to lead another scoring drive. UCLA’s defense will also hold the Ducks to field goals on three of their drives, but it will be a reversal of the Memphis win as the Bruins lose despite getting one more touchdown.
The two-point loss won’t be a major setback, and both teams could very well be ranked at this point of the season — both before and after the contest. UCLA will continue through its hardest stretch of the season still seeking that elusive sixth win.
FINAL: Oregon 30, UCLA 28 (5-2)
It certainly won’t come against the defending conference champions. Washington is in a similar situation as the Bruins this season. While the Huskies return many of the key parts of its own prolific offense, they too are dealing with major losses on defense. By the end of October, we will know just how formidable both teams’ defenses are in 2017.
Last year the two teams avoided one another on the schedule. Washington has won 10 of their past 12 meetings, including the past two in 2013 and 2014. The rosters have largely turned over from those games, though. Instead, it will be a quarterback duel between Josh Rosen and Washington’s Jake Browning.
After leading the Huskies to the Pac-12 title and into a College Football Playoff berth last year, Browning will be looked upon to shoulder even more in 2017. Chris Petersen’s crew has a legitimate shot at running the table once again, and UCLA is not likely to be the team that takes down Washington on its path.
Like in the Oregon game, running will make the difference. Myles Gaskin will rush for somewhere between 125 and 175 yards and at least two touchdowns as the Huskies continue their march to another Pac-12 championship. In the process, any shot UCLA had of meeting them in Santa Clara as the Pac-12 South representative will pretty much collapse.
FINAL: Washington 38, UCLA 20 (5-3)
The divisional battle against Utah last year in the Rose Bowl was one of UCLA’s close losses. The two teams traded punches, as the offenses heated up and both defenses resembled sieves. Combining for 1,049 yards of offense, the two teams scored 13 touchdowns between them. In the end, though, five turnovers doomed the Bruins.
In that October showdown a year earlier, Mike Fafaul was forced to start for the second straight week after Josh Rosen was injured two weeks earlier in the season. Fafaul racked up 464 yards and five touchdowns on 70 attempts, but he also threw four interceptions against the Utes. Even then, UCLA was in position to tie the game but ran out of time.
With Rosen back this year to play against Utah, the game could flip in the opposite direction. This year the Utes no longer have Joe Williams in the backfield, though Troy Williams is back to start at quarterback. The Utes will have a strong receiving corps after adding former Oregon receiver Darren Carrington II as a graduate transfer in the offseason.
Even then, look for Rosen to tip the scales in favor of the Bruins. After three missed chances, the fourth time will be the charm as UCLA finally reaches bowl eligibility in 2017. Their goal for the rest of the regular season will be to improve their bowl matchup in the conference pecking order.
FINAL: UCLA 34, Utah 31 (6-3)
Last year, Josh Rosen was injured in the first half against Arizona State. He headed to the locker room to get his right leg checked out, and the offense stalled with Mike Fafaul guiding the unit. Then Rosen returned to the field in the second half and nearly pulled the Bruins to victory. He ended the game with 400 yards and two touchdowns in the losing effort.
The game ultimately hinged on a couple of missed J.J. Molson field goals that would have put UCLA ahead in what was ultimately a 23-20 loss to the Sun Devils. Last year the Bruins defense managed to hold Demario Richard and Kalen Ballage to just 86 combined rushing yards in the defeat.
Containing Arizona State’s ground game will be critical again this season as UCLA looks to move further up the Pac-12 South standings. Rosen could have another 400-yard game and throw for three or four touchdowns against the Sun Devils this year. Molson will have the chance to redeem himself and will respond well, kicking three field goals that prove the difference in the final score.
With its seventh win, the Bruins could potentially rise back into the College Football Playoff selection committee’s Top 25 in its third release of the year. All that will be left now is to see whether the Bruins can emerge victorious from either of their big rivalry games.
FINAL: UCLA 37, Arizona 28 (7-3)
By this point of the year, the Trojans should be knocking on the door of the Pac-12 South crown. UCLA will be comfortably bowl eligible, but looking up at their crosstown rivals in the division standings. Last year Southern California had its way with the Bruins, rolling up 527 yards of offense in a 36-14 road victory at the Rose Bowl.
This year the Bruins have to travel across town to Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in the Battle for the Victory Bell. The storylines will center on the divergent storylines of Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen, who could be in the discussion for the top pick in the 2018 NFL Draft at this point of their respective campaigns.
Darnold and Rosen will both top 300 passing yards and will each throw at least three touchdown passes. But USC’s defense will prove far better than the 2017 edition UCLA brings to the Coliseum. Rosen will toss a couple of costly picks, including one returned for a touchdown. The Trojans ground game will grind out the clock and ensure a trip to the Pac-12 championship game.
Meanwhile UCLA will fall right back out of the polls after their fourth loss of the year. The defeat will put a ceiling on their bowl destination as well. Only one final November opportunity will remain, and the Bruins will have to turn around from the USC defeat for a Black Friday showdown on a short week.
FINAL: USC 44, UCLA 28 (7-4)
The regular season will conclude with UCLA’s last game in its home stadium for the season. (With the Rose Bowl serving as a College Football Playoff semifinal site this season, the dream of playing at home in the postseason was long gone for the Bruins.) They will welcome rival California, hoping to repay the favor of last year’s 36-10 loss in Berkeley.
In 2016, the Golden Bears took down UCLA thanks in large part to the passing of Davis Webb. The graduate transfer threw for 301 yards and two touchdowns, while Khalfani Muhammad rushed for 116 yards and Tre Watson added 78. The first two players are no longer on Cal’s roster, and it will be hard to replicate last year’s prolific numbers.
Instead, this game will probably turn into a defensive showdown. Josh Rosen will do far better against the Golden Bears than Mike Fafaul did in 2016. Rosen’s 350 passing yards and three touchdowns will pace the Bruins to victory in their home finale.
All that will be left at that point is to wait out the rest of Thanksgiving weekend and see where they will end up in the postseason. After the way 2016 went, though, getting through the year unscathed and with an 8-4 record will be its own victory. Jim Mora’s job will be secure for another season, though Rosen will likely be preparing for his final game in a Bruins uniform.
FINAL: UCLA 21, California 17 (8-4)
Final Standings: 8-4 (5-4 Pac-12)
After going through the record more closely, I have chosen to revise an earlier preseason prediction that slotted UCLA as a 9-3 team in the Pac-12 race. Honestly, though, as the projected scores attest, the margins of victory or defeat are going to be close all throughout the year. 6-6 is just as possible as 9-3.
The losses to Stanford, Washington, and USC seem largely inevitable. A loss to Oregon isn’t inevitable, and nine wins is still within reach. Nevertheless, the Bruins won’t come close to Pac-12 contention or a possible New Year’s Six invite. Given their recent bowl destinations, they are probably locked into a limited number of positions. Losing to the Ducks will shift their destination from Sin City to further east in the desert.
Possible Bowl Game: Cactus Bowl v. TCU
After playing in the Foster Farms Bowl, Alamo Bowl, Sun Bowl, and Holiday Bowl in their past four postseason appearances, the other two bowl destinations available among the Pac-12 affiliations are the Las Vegas Bowl and the Cactus Bowl in Arizona. The Bruins will likely be headed to the latter after their 8-4 campaign.
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There they will take on TCU, which will probably finish with a similar record in the Big 12 this year. The Horned Frogs will bring a stout defense to Chase Field to take on UCLA in one of several bowl games at baseball venues. Rosen will get yards, but he could also throw picks as UCLA ends the year with one final close contest to cap a nail-biting season.