San Diego State Football: Game preview, prediction, live stream vs. UNLV

San Diego State football is one of the Group of Five favorites to reach a New Year’s Six bowl. Could UNLV upset their goals in Las Vegas on Saturday?

After five games, San Diego State is ranked No. 19 in the most recent AP Top 25. The Aztecs are putting pressure on preseason favorite South Florida in the Group of Five’s competition to land an invitation to a New Year’s Six bid. And they have two statement wins over Pac-12 squads on their resume, having taken down Arizona State and Stanford in back-to-back weekends in September

But to reach a major bowl, they need to get through their Mountain West schedule and win a third straight conference title before anything else is possible. As the season flips into October, the Aztecs are 1-0 in league play after surviving a trip to Air Force in Week 4. After completing non-conference play last week against Northern Illinois, San Diego State takes back to the road.

They head to Las Vegas to face a UNLV team that is also 1-0 in the MWC West after downing San Jose State. The Rebels are 2-2 to open the season after years of struggles, and Tony Sanchez’s team is hoping to go bowling for the first time since 2013.

Last year’s showdown between UNLV and the Aztecs ended in a 26-7 win for San Diego State at home. The defending conference champs have won three straight in the series, all by lopsided scores. Can UNLV build an upset bid at home when Rocky Long’s team comes to town on Saturday?

Here’s how to watch Saturday’s game between UNLV and San Diego State:

Date: Saturday, Oct. 7
Time: 10:45 p.m. ET
Location: Las Vegas, NV
Venue: Sam Boyd Stadium
TV: ESPN2
Live Stream: WatchESPN

Keys to Victory

To win on Saturday, San Diego State needs to keep from beating itself more than anything. The Aztecs have average nearly eight penalties and 75 penalty yards per game. If San Diego State takes as many flags as they usually do this season, it could allow the Rebels to stay in the game far longer than expected.

UNLV has been generous to opposing rushing attacks, and Rashaad Penny will need to feast on an overmatched Rebels front seven. The Aztecs will need to get at least some semblance of balance from quarterback Christian Chapman, but more than anything they will need Penny to pound the ball early and often.

For the hosts, winning on Saturday is going to require a Herculean effort from every one of their players. UNLV boasts the top rushing attack in the Mountain West, and they will need to control the clock against San Diego State. If the Rebels can keep the chains moving and keep the Aztecs offense off the field as much as possible, they have a chance to put their visitors on upset alert.

Betting Odds

Odds courtesy of Sportsbook Review

Point Spread: San Diego State -10.5
Over/Under: 58

Prediction

As much as it would be in line with the rest of the chaos that has transpired so far this college football season, San Diego State is not going to lose in Las Vegas on Saturday. The only question, really, is whether the Aztecs will cover the 10.5-point spread set by the oddsmakers.

Here is predicting that they will, though it might be tougher than expected. Rashaad Penny will put up another 200-yard day on the ground, scoring three touchdowns against the Rebels. Christian Chapman will throw for another 200 yards and a touchdown, but he will also toss a couple of picks that keep UNLV in the game far longer than expected.

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Lexington Thomas and Armani Rogers will both rush for over 100 yards for UNLV, and bettors who chose to put their money on the Rebels will feel good about the selection until the final minutes. As the Rebels try to pull off a late comeback, Rogers will throw a touchdown that Tariq Thompson returns for the touchdown that ices San Diego State’s win against the spread.

Final Score: San Diego State 44, UNLV 27