UCF Football: Game preview, prediction, live stream vs. Cincinnati

UCF football is in the hunt for a New Year’s Six berth. Will it stay undefeated and in the race on their road trip to Cincinnati on Saturday evening?

A few years ago, the Bearcats rather than the Knights were the darling of the American Athletic Conference. But thanks to regular roster turnover and new coaching staffs, the tables have turned as UCF begins to establish itself as a national contender. UCF has been trouncing opponents since getting back to the field in the wake of Hurricane Irma, and they will look to do so again against divisional rival Cincinnati.

The Bearcats are currently 2-3, having falling to Navy in conference play as well as Michigan and Marshall. They will try to get back on track in league play against a Knights team hunting for a conference title. Though they are at home, Cincinnati enters this showdown as a heavy underdog.

Cincinnati and UCF have only played twice before. In 2015, the Bearcats dealt the Knights a 52-7 blowout defeat at Nippert Stadium. Last year, the Knights returned the favor in a 24-3 mismatch in Orlando. Which team will come out on top this weekend when they square off in AAC East play on Saturday evening?

Here’s how to watch Saturday’s game between UCF and Cincinnati:

Date: Saturday, Oct. 7
Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
Location: Cincinnati, Ohio
Venue: Nippert Stadium
TV: ESPNU
Live Stream: WatchESPN

Keys to Victory

To win on the road this weekend, UCF needs to keep doing exactly what it has done in recent weeks against Maryland and Memphis. The Knights have held opponents scoreless on three out of every seven trips into the red zone, and the defense ranks in the top 20 in turnovers generated. They have been especially strong against opposing run games, holding teams under 85 rushing yards per game.

When they have the football, McKenzie Milton has been the catalyst for the UCF offense. Milton is completing nearly 65 percent of his passes, with eight touchdowns and just two interceptions in his first three games of the year. The UCF quarterback is also running the ball well, with 94 yards against Maryland and 88 in the win over Memphis.

Milton’s counterpart on the Bearcats, Hayden Moore, has been held under a 50 percent completion rate in two of the three Cincinnati losses. How well Moore performs against a stout UCF passing defense could determine whether the Bearcats have a chance to pull off the upset at home. If Moore can put together a mistake-free game against a tough Knights defense, Cincinnati will be able to at least beat the spread.

Betting Odds

Odds courtesy of Sportsbook Review

Point Spread: UCF -17
Over/Under: 57

Prediction

The blowout trend in this series isn’t going to end on Saturday. Cincinnati is a 17-point underdog, and even that point spread might be generous to the Bearcats. For the first time in the series, the road team is going to walk away victorious as UCF takes an early lead on the opening drive and never looks back.

McKenzie Milton will throw for over 300 yards and run for another 80-plus, notching four total touchdowns. Adrian Killins Jr. will run for 150 and a couple of scores against a beleaguered Bearcats front seven. And the UCF defense will clamp down on Hayden Moore as well as the Cincinnati backfield, preventing the Bearcats from gaining any momentum on their home turf.

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By halftime, UCF will be up by at least four touchdowns and well ahead of the spread. Things will only get uglier in the second half. The Bearcats will score some late points to prevent being shut out at home, but that is about all that will go right for them on Saturday night. UCF will climb another few spots in the polls and keep pace with South Florida in the AAC East as they steamroll over Cincinnati.

Final Score: UCF 52, Cincinnati 10