Florida Football: Can Dan Mullen pull out win in Mississippi State return?

After a dominant win over Tennessee, Florida football heads to Starkville, Miss., to take on 23rd-ranked Mississippi State.

Florida has looked much improved from a year ago for much of this season.

After a home loss to Kentucky snapped the 31-game winning streak over the Wildcats, many were left wondering how talented this Florida team actually is. They followed up the loss with back-to-back dominant wins over the Colorado State Rams and the Tennessee Volunteers.

Feleipe Franks looks improved from a year ago and looks better statistically from a year ago by adding three more touchdowns in seven fewer appearances. Their offense as a whole is the greatest statistically with 383.5 yards per game on average but this could also be due to their incredible 14:4 turnover margin.

The Gators currently boast the 26th ranked scoring offense nationally with an average of 41 points per game and currently have three running backs averaging over six yards per carry.

Defensively, the Gators have forced 13 fumbles already this year and have picked up 10 of those while also adding four interceptions to their turnover count. The Florida secondary ranks tenth nationally in pass defense by only allowing 150.5 yards per game to opposing quarterbacks while allowing 338.3 total yards to opposing teams on average.

Mullen’s return to Starkville has been highly anticipated all offseason and now it will be interesting to see how his former fans react to the 46-year-old coach who took them to new heights.

Mississippi State didn’t have the same success that Florida had last week. Both the Bulldogs and Gators have faced defeat at the hands of Mark Stoops and the Kentucky Wildcats this season. The offense was rather stagnant against the Wildcats with Fitzgerald averaging 1.2 yards per carry on 16 total carries while also completing 50 percent of his passes.

Despite the rough outing, Mississippi State is still averaging 491 yards per game with 247.75 coming on the ground on average with the combination of Aeris Williams, Kylin Hill and quarterback Nick Fitzgerald.

Defensively, only seven other teams have done better at stopping the pass than Mississippi State as they allow an average of 148.3 yards allowed on average to opposing quarterbacks and even had a pick last week against Kentucky. They’re also allowing only 269.3 total yards per game which is top ten as well. The problem for Mississippi State is their turnover margin. They’ve only forced four total turnovers while giving up three. Florida has made a name for themselves by forcing turnovers this season and have cashed in eight of their fourteen turnovers for points.

Will Dan Mullen and the Florida Gators come out on top? Or will the Bulldogs spoil Mullen’s return home?

Date: Saturday, Sept. 29
Time: 6:00 p.m. ET
Location: Starkville, Miss.
Venue: Davis Wade Stadium
TV: ESPN
Live Stream: WatchESPN or FuboTV

Players to Watch

Florida

• QB, Feleipe Franks
• DL, Jachai Polite
• WR, Feddie Swain
• DB, Chauncey Gardner
• RBs, Jordan Scarlett, Dameon Pierce, and Lamical Perine

Mississippi State

• QB, Nick Fitzgerald
• WR, Stephen Guidry
• RBs, Aeris Williams and Kylin Hill
• DBs, Cameron Dantzler and Johnathan Abram
• LB, Eroll Thompson

Keys to Victory

Florida needs to force turnovers and keep the crowd out of the game. Nick Fitzgerald’s strengths are his legs while his arm is very pedestrian. If the Gators can take advantage of Fitzgerald’s shortcomings, they are off to a great start.

Next, Florida must use their talented backs and move the ball on a defense that allowed Benny Snell 165 yards and four touchdowns a week ago. Finally, make sure Feleipe Franks avoids costly mistakes such as a late interception or a late sack that costs them the game.

Mississippi State has to get the ball going on the ground and avoid turning over the ball. Florida’s run defense currently allows an average of 187.75 yards per game on the ground and actually allowed Benny Snell to run for 175 yards against them in week two. This bodes incredibly well for Fitzgerald who has to run the ball if he’s going to be effective against most defenses.

Florida’s secondary has played incredibly well this season and they know what kind of player Fitzgerald is. If the senior quarterback makes the right throws to keep the defense honest, he can keep running lanes open and most importantly avoid the turnovers.

Betting Lines

Presented by OddsShark

Points Spread: Mississippi State -7
Over/Under: 48

Prediction

This one is going to be a hard fought battle that will go down to the wire. All those cowbells will be in full swing all game long as the fans cheer on the Bulldogs to defeat their former hero Dan Mullen. When the dust settles and the clock hits zero, Mississippi State will hold strong and Nick Fitzgerald bounces back against the very coach who gave him his chance at an FBS institution.

Final Score: Mississippi State 27, Florida 24