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Florida Football: Post-spring game-by-game predictions for 2019

By John Mitchell

GAINESVILLE, FL - SEPTEMBER 01: Feleipe Franks #13 of the Florida Gators throws a wrist band to a fan following a victory over the Charleston Southern Buccaneers at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium on September 1, 2018 in Gainesville, Florida. (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images)
GAINESVILLE, FL - SEPTEMBER 01: Feleipe Franks #13 of the Florida Gators throws a wrist band to a fan following a victory over the Charleston Southern Buccaneers at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium on September 1, 2018 in Gainesville, Florida. (Photo by Sam Greenwood/Getty Images) /
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(Photo by Frederick Breedon/Getty Images)
(Photo by Frederick Breedon/Getty Images) /

Vanderbilt has played Florida tight in recent seasons, with the last four meetings being decided by 14 points or less, but the Commodores have just one win in the annual series since 1988.

Derek Mason led Vanderbilt to a bowl game for the second time in three years, but a second bowl loss in as many trips meant Vandy has finished with a losing record in all five seasons with Mason at the helm. Getting the ‘Dores back to a bowl game for the second straight season will be an uphill battle with all they have to replace from last season’s group.

Vanderbilt lost a ton of talent, particularly on defense. It returns just 43% of last season’s defensive production, a number that ranks 119th in the country. The season might come down to how quickly a slew of transfers acclimates themselves to the system in Nashville. Mason knew he had a lot to replace, and pulled in nine transfers, the majority of which will be eligible in 2019, to try and combat it.

While the defense took the brunt of the damage, no singular loss was more impactful than Kyle Shurmur graduating. Shurmur put together an efficient final season in Nashville, completing 62-percent of his passes and throwing for 3100 yards and 24 touchdowns to only 6 interceptions. The race to replace Shurmur is still ongoing, and likely won’t be decided until the fall.

Junior Deuce Wallace and Ball State graduate transfer Riley Neal are the two guys competing for the job. Wallace probably has the higher ceiling, but Neal would make for the safer choice. Whoever wins the job will have the luxury of a 1.200-plus yard running back behind them.

Mason and Co. will likely lean on senior running back Ke’Shawn Vaughn even more next season, particularly with Khari Blasingame being gone. Vaughn turned 157 carries into 1,244 yards (7.9 yards-per-carry) last season. I’d be shocked if that number wasn’t over 200 in 2019. It probably has to be for the ‘Dores to seriously contend for a bowl game.

Regardless of whether or not Vanderbilt gets back to a bowl, this isn’t likely to be one of the requisite six wins under any realistic scenario. The ‘Dores have come out on top in Gainesville only twice in their history.

Pick: Florida 41, Vanderbilt 17 (8-2, 5-2)

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