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Iowa State football’s matchup with Texas could be best of Week 12

By Gavin Jernigan

LUBBOCK, TEXAS - OCTOBER 19: Running back Breece Hall #28 of the Iowa State Cyclones runs the ball during the second half of the college football game against the Texas Tech Red Raiders on October 19, 2019 at Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock, Texas. (Photo by John E. Moore III/Getty Images)
LUBBOCK, TEXAS - OCTOBER 19: Running back Breece Hall #28 of the Iowa State Cyclones runs the ball during the second half of the college football game against the Texas Tech Red Raiders on October 19, 2019 at Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock, Texas. (Photo by John E. Moore III/Getty Images) /
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The No. 19 Texas Longhorns travel to Ames to take on Iowa State football. The Longhorns will have an uphill battle in this Week 12 match.

Heartbreak is the perfect word to describe Iowa State’s season thus far. The Cyclones have won convincingly against reputable teams, both at home and on the road. But, the sorrow comes in their losses. Iowa State’s four losses have been by a combined score of just 11 points.

And, all four of the teams they lost to are currently ranked inside the Top 25. The Cyclones enter this game outside of the Top 25 with a record of 5-4.

Texas, too, has had a frustrating season and come into the match at 6-3, but at No. 19 in the College Football Playoff rankings. Many question this ranking considering there are legitimate arguments to be made that other one and two loss teams are much more deserving of that high of ranking. However, the Longhorn losses come to No. 1 LSU, No. 10 Oklahoma and away at TCU.

Undoubtedly, Texas being ranked so high is controversial and this weekend will be quite telling about the Longhorns true place. Here’s how to watch this Big 12 matchup.

Date: Saturday, Nov. 16
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Location: Ames, Iowa
Venue: Jack Trice Stadium
TV: FS1
Live Stream: FOX Sports Go

Keys to Cictory

The Longhorns are led by junior quarterback, Sam Ehlinger. He has shown signs of brilliance in his time at Texas and is having another solid season. He has passed for 24 touchdowns with a 66 percent completion rate. Ehlinger will need to be on top of his game and ensure he has zero turnovers if he wants to give his team a chance.

The Cyclones will also need to be disciplined but in a different area. Of course, Matt Campbell’s squad will want to limit their turnovers also.

However, Iowa State will need to avoid costly penalties, especially as the game comes down to the wire. They can avoid that issue, though, if they are able to get off to a fast start and not play from behind. The Cyclones often take just a little too long to find their rhythm on offense and that is partially responsible for their close losses.

Betting Odds

Odds courtesy of The Action Network.

Point Spread: Iowa State -7
Over/Under: 65.5

Prediction

Vegas has Iowa State as the favorite.  However, as we must all remember, Vegas sets odds to incentivize a balance of betting on both sides, not necessarily based on who they think will win. Rankings, on the other hand, often suggest which teams are better.

Many times these rankings are supported by a team’s overall record, or in other words, their on-field performance. Therefore, a Cyclone win would most definitely constitute an upset, given Texas is all-the-way up at 19 in the rankings.

Related Story. Upset alert in Week 12. light

Look for Breece Hall, Iowa State’s starting running back, to have a big game against the Longhorns, since Texas is 72nd in opposing team’s yards per carry. With the Cyclones ability to establish a run-game early on, it will open the door for Brock Purdy to find holes in the Texas secondary. Look for a blowout win for Iowa State at home.

Final: Iowa State 35, Texas 10

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