Conceptualizing college football’s BCS era for non-AQ teams of the period

We can break down college football’s BCS era into six distinct periods as they relate to the waxing and waning fortunes of non-AQ teams during its run.

The Bowl Championship Series lived as a bridge of sorts. Inaugurated from the anarchy that marked the early modern era of college football following the Supreme Court’s landmark 1984 decision that took control of TV rights out of the hands of the NCAA and put it in the hands of individual schools and conferences, the BCS ran out its 14 years of existence before ceding to the College Football Playoff.

This system provided a mechanism, imperfect yet aspirational, to crown the closest thing the sport had to that point experienced in terms of a decisive national champion. For schools that fell outside of the purview of the six automatic-qualifying conferences, however, the BCS served an entirely different function.

This period was a cudgel of sorts, separating the haves from the have-nots and consolidating power even further into the hands of the powerhouses. Even as conferences evolved and leagues grew or diminished through realignments, the system maintained a clear divide that proved insurmountable for non-AQ programs.

Becoming the next team to follow in the footsteps of BYU’s 1984 national championship team effectively evolved into an impossibility with the new era.

Looking back at the 14-year run of the BCS, we can identify six distinct periods that shaped the development of the system and the fortunes of non-AQ teams across the country. In this week’s Sunday Morning Quarterback, let’s take a quick look at each phase of BCS history in turn to identify its key characteristics for the “Little Sisters of the Poor” of FBS football.

Phase 1: Perfection and greatness on the outside looking in (1998-2000)

When the BCS first came online in 1998, there were still a ton of kinks to iron out of the system. The algorithm that determined the best teams in the nation looked nothing like the calculations by the end of the BCS era, though the seed of a marriage between human and computer rankings existed from the outset.

Tulane was coming off a 7-4 season in 1998 when they ran the table in Conference USA. The Green Wave played a schedule that dampened any chance of reaching a BCS game, though there was talk throughout the year about a possible showdown in the Sugar Bowl. Ultimately, Tommy Bowden’s team fell four spots short of forcing the BCS’s hand, and the Green Wave was forced to accept a Liberty Bowl bid — which they played under new head coach Chris Scelfo after Bowden left to take the Clemson job.

Instead of the Green Wave, teams like 11-2 Texas A&M and 8-4 Syracuse played in BCS bowls as automatically qualifying conference champions.

A year later, Marshall went undefeated in the team’s third year of existence at the I-A level. The Thundering Herd upset Bowden’s Clemson team on the road in the season opener, then ran the table for their third straight MAC championship. Despite the win over an ACC opponent away from home, though, the BCS saw fit to slot Bob Pruett’s Marshall squad at just No. 12 in the final standings of the season.

Marshall was relegated to the Motor City Bowl in Detroit, while 9-2 Wisconsin, 9-2 Tennessee, 9-2 Alabama, 9-2 Michigan, and 8-3 Stanford all reached BCS bowl games.

TCU missed their chance to put real pressure on the BCS in 2000, when the Horned Frogs squandered a win over Big Ten co-champion Northwestern and a road shutout of then-independent Navy by losing by three points at San Jose State in early November. Dennis Franchione’s TCU side finished No. 14 in the BCS standings as a 10-1 WAC co-champion, but was forced to watch as 10-2 Florida, 9-2 Notre Dame, and 8-3 Purdue all played in BCS contests.

Phase 2: BCS off the hook as contenders fail to emerge (2001-2003)

After TCU’s inability to break through in 2000, the BCS was effectively let off the hook at the beginning of the 21st century. BYU came into the final weekend of the regular season with a perfect 12-0 record that included wins over a Pac-10 opponent and an SEC opponent. Of course, those two were 1-10 California and 3-8 Mississippi State, dampening the impact of two victories over power-conference foes.

With the stipulations requiring a top-six finish to trigger an automatic BCS bid, BYU was hovering at No. 12 in the standings when they dropped the regular-season finale at Hawaii in a wacky 72-45 shootout. Dropped out of the BCS standings, the Cougars went to the Liberty Bowl while 10-2 Colorado, 9-2 Florida, and 9-3 LSU all played in BCS games.

Colorado State opened the season in 2002 with wins over Virginia and Colorado, and even losses to UCLA and Fresno State didn’t entirely knock the Rams out of BCS contention. Sonny Lubick’s squad was hovering at No. 15 in the BCS standings after stringing together six straight victories when they hosted UNLV in the regular-season finale. The Rebels got the better of the Rams, stealing a 36-33 win that dropped Colorado State out of the rankings. The 10-3 Mountain West champions ultimately lost their fourth game in the Liberty Bowl, vindicating the BCS.

Whereas 2001 and 2002 saw close calls turn into missed opportunities, 2003 marked the emergence of too many contenders to create any real separation between the pack. Northern Illinois opened the highest of any non-AQ team in the first set of rankings released on October 20, with the Huskies all the way at No. 10 ahead of fellow 7-0 mid-major TCU. A loss against Bowling Green immediately dropped NIU from their perch, as the Falcons as well as Miami of Ohio jumped up to give the MAC three teams in the Top 25.

Miami would finish the highest of any non-AQ team in the running, as the MAC champions ranked No. 11 at 11-1. A Boise State team that won the WAC at 12-1 sat six spots back from the RedHawks, their only loss a 26-24 close call at Oregon State. TCU’s November 20 loss at Southern Miss kept the Horned Frogs from winning Conference USA and from any chance at a BCS bid. Mountain West champion Utah slotted in at No. 22, while MAC finalist Bowling Green ended at No. 24. Too many flawed hopefuls missed the mark, but the BCS was soon busted.

Phase 3: The rise of the Mountain West (2004-2005)

Utah becomes first BCS Buster in 2004 when the Utes ran the table in the Mountain West. Urban Meyer’s squad went 11-0 in a regular season that included wins over Texas A&M, Arizona, and North Carolina out of conference by a combined 110-43 scoreline. The Utes also dominated their MWC competition, winning their seven conference games by an average 50-25 score.

Unlike any other non-AQ team to that point, Utah received the benefit of the doubt from the outset. The Utes opened at No. 7 in the first BCS standings on October 18 and locked into a top-six spot for all but one other week after that opening. Their reward was a date with 8-3 Pitt, which won the opportunity to represent the Big East thanks to head-to-head wins over conference co-champions West Virginia and Boston College.

As heavy favorites in Glendale, Meyer led the Utes to a 35-7 blowout of the Panthers before leaving Salt Lake City to continue his career at Florida. Alex Smith threw for 328 yards and four touchdowns in his final college game before going No. 1 in the NFL Draft that spring, earning co-offensive MVP honors with receiver Paris Warren and landing the Utes a top-five spot in both major polls to end the season.

A year later, TCU rolled through its first year as a member of the Mountain West to emerge as the only viable non-AQ contender in 2005. For the Horned Frogs, however, an early-season loss to rival SMU in the Battle for the Iron Skillet proved too costly in the long run. Even with their season-opening win over Oklahoma in Norman, Gary Patterson’s crew was relegated to the Houston Bowl to play Iowa State after landing at No. 14 in the final BCS standings of the year.

While the Horned Frogs downed the 7-4 Cyclones in Texas, they were passed over by the BCS while a team like 8-4 Florida State was automatically selected based on their ACC affiliation. Still, the Mountain West had started to make a name for itself as a perennial contender in the hunt to bust the BCS.

Phase 4: The WAC meets the challenge (2006-2007)

Two years after Utah played an overmatched Pitt team in the Fiesta Bowl, Boise State headed to the desert for a much more formidable test as the second BCS Buster in the history of the series. The Broncos knocked off a top-25 Oregon State team, won at Utah 36-3 to take over the mantle as the best non-AQ team in the country, and swept their WAC schedule by an average of 19 points per game to land at No. 8 in the BCS standings.

A rule change prior to the season, prompted by Congressional inquiry into the antitrust nature of the BCS system, opened up access that allowed No. 8 to be good enough for the Broncos to land their spot in the Fiesta Bowl. Before 2006, a top-six finish was required to land a BCS invitation for a non-AQ team. The combination of adding a fifth standalone BCS championship game and expanding non-AQ access to a top-12 spot proved enough to get a chance against Big 12 champion Oklahoma.

Bob Stoops’s Sooners entered the game as 7.5-point favorites against the Broncos. Boise State opened up a 14-0 lead in the first quarter and remained up 21-10 at halftime. Oklahoma charged back in the second half, scoring 25 unanswered points to take a 35-28 lead with only 1:02 remaining. Jared Zabransky led a late comeback to tie the game on the penultimate play of regulation, a hook-and-lateral play from Zabransky to Drisan James to Jared Rabb. The teams traded touchdowns in overtime, with Ian Johnson winning the game on a Statue of Liberty two-point conversion.

The fairy tale continued for the WAC in 2007, as league champion Hawaii landed at No. 10 in the final BCS standings and earned a trip to the Sugar Bowl. There they faced Georgia, selected to represent the SEC in the league-affiliated BCS game despite failing to even win the SEC East. Because conference champion LSU was selected to play for the national title, the Bulldogs headed to New Orleans.

This time the clock struck midnight before Cinderella could heat up at the Superdome. Down 14-3 by the end of the first quarter, the Rainbow Warriors were bombarded by 34 unanswered Bulldogs points before finding their way into the endzone for the only time in the game. Even with the loss, though, Junes Jones and his Hawaii squad showed that the WAC was capable of becoming an annual force in the BCS race.

Phase 5: Western leagues battle for supremacy (2008-2010)

After taking over the head coaching position when Urban Meyer left for Florida, Kyle Whittingham led Utah the the BCS for a second time when they rattled off another undefeated season in 2008. The Utes opened the season with a takedown of Michigan in the Big House, and added a home victory over Oregon State in non-conference play. Wins over TCU and BYU in conference play gave the Utes two more quality wins to finish the regular season 12-0 and land at No. 6 in the final BCS standings.

The Utes pipped Boise State, which landed at No. 9 after going undefeated in the WAC. Boise State added a road win over Oregon out of conference, but their WAC slate proved weaker than Utah’s run of play in the Mountain West. Chris Petersen’s team was forced to settle for a Poinsettia Bowl bid against TCU, losing their first game of the season in San Diego in a tense 17-16 defensive battle.

Utah went to New Orleans to face Alabama, which ranked No. 1 in the nation prior to the SEC championship game. A 31-20 loss to former Utes head coach Urban Meyer and the No. 2 Florida Gators dropped Alabama out of the national title picture, relegating them to the Sugar Bowl. They arrived at the Superdome as 10-point favorites, but Utah jumped out to a 21-0 lead in the first 15 minutes. The Crimson Tide charged back, pulling as close as four points on the opening drive of the third quarter, but Utah regrouped to run away with a 31-17 win to end the year at No. 2 in the AP Top 25.

Boise State wouldn’t be denied a second straight year when they again won the WAC with a perfect record. The Broncos were forced to share the honors with TCU, which went undefeated in the Mountain West. For the first and only time in BCS history, the system opened up spots for two different non-AQ teams. Setting up a rematch of the previous season’s Poinsettia Bowl, Boise State earned its revenge with a 17-10 win in the Fiesta Bowl. In the process, Petersen’s Broncos joined Utah as the only non-AQ teams to win two BCS games during the 14-year era.

In 2010, a clause in the BCS guaranteed that a mid-major program earning a BCS bid would get to play in the Rose Bowl. Once again, TCU and Boise State were pushing each other to try to land the trip to Pasadena. The Horned Frogs and the Broncos both downed a common AQ opponent in Oregon State, TCU by nine on neutral turf in Arlington and Boise State by 13 at home on the Smurf Turf. Boise State also toppled Virginia Tech in a neutral-site opener; TCU also knocked off Baylor at home. Entering the final weekend of November, TCU was No. 3 and Boise State sat at No. 4 in the BCS standings.

Then Colin Kaepernick and Nevada upset the Broncos, and TCU closed out the year with a win at New Mexico. Gary Patterson’s Horned Frogs headed to the Granddaddy of ’em All, where they faced Big Ten champion Wisconsin. The two teams traded the lead back and forth in the first half, with TCU taking a 14-10 lead at halftime after scoring the go-ahead touchdown in the final minute of the second quarter. Another touchdown on the opening drive of the second half was enough to claim a 21-19 victory for the Horned Frogs, a landmark win in the country’s oldest bowl game.

Phase 6: Expanding opportunity outside the west (2011-2013)

After TCU’s win in the Rose Bowl, BCS Busters could claim victories in three of the four bowls that comprised the elite quartet of the BCS. Only the Orange Bowl had yet to host a non-AQ team. It looked possible that it could finally tumble into place in 2011, as Houston vaulted up into the top six of the BCS standings heading into conference championship weekend. The Cougars, as the last undefeated non-AQ team standing that year, collapsed in the C-USA title game to Southern Miss and dropped out of contention at the final hurdle.

To that point, only perfection allowed a non-AQ team to amass enough goodwill to vault high enough in the BCS standings for a trip to a major bowl game. That all changed in 2012, when Northern Illinois recovered from a season-opening loss to Iowa to rise to No. 15 after the MAC championship game. Taking advantage of a clause in the BCS bylaws that allowed a top-16 non-AQ school to earn a spot if they finished ahead of a major conference champion, everything fell into place on the championship weekend.

Heading to the Orange Bowl in Miami, the Huskies took on Florida State hoping to conquer the last BCS bowl for the MAC. Instead, the Seminoles treated NIU much like Georgia had dealt with Hawaii in the Sugar Bowl five years earlier. Jordan Lynch and the Huskies fought gamely, but Florida State ran away with a 31-10 victory.

Northern Illinois nearly got a second chance the following season, the last of the BCS era. The Huskies went 12-0 to start the season, including road wins over Big Ten opponents Iowa and Purdue. A shocking 47-27 loss to Bowling Green in the MAC championship game, however, ended the dream of a repeat. In similar fashion, Fresno State dropped a 62-52 decision against San Jose State in their penultimate game to fall out of contention.

Thus there was officially no BCS Buster in the final year of the series. The closest thing to a Cinderella was UCF, which won the American Athletic Conference in its first year after realignment and in the league’s final year as an automatic-qualifying conference. The Knights took advantage of their circumstances to go to the Fiesta Bowl, where they took care of business against Baylor to give the little guys a final statement before the College Football Playoff era began.

Final takeaways

Ultimately, the BCS era marked a period of transition for more than just the teams at the top of the standings.

At the end of the 20th century, even perfection was not enough to earn non-AQ teams a trip to the Promised Land. By the second decade of the 21st century, a loss did not instantly disqualify a team from consideration.

Along the way, the repeated push of teams like Utah, Boise State, TCU, and Northern Illinois helped expand access that was unimaginable for Tulane and Marshall before them. That forced the College Football Playoff to create an automatic path for access for a non-AQ league champion in what quickly became known as the awkwardly-named Group of Five conferences.

The chance to replicate the 1984 national championship won by BYU still requires a series of improbable events to all fall into place. Access is limited at this point, but the mechanisms have slowly developed to provide more than an illusory chance at glory.