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Big 12 football: Ranking how likely each school is to leave the conference

By John Scimeca

MORGANTOWN, WV - OCTOBER 12: Jamahl Johnson #92 of the Iowa State Cyclones puts pressure on quarterback Jack Allison #11 of the West Virginia Mountaineers at Mountaineer Field on October 12, 2019 in Morgantown, West Virginia. (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)
MORGANTOWN, WV - OCTOBER 12: Jamahl Johnson #92 of the Iowa State Cyclones puts pressure on quarterback Jack Allison #11 of the West Virginia Mountaineers at Mountaineer Field on October 12, 2019 in Morgantown, West Virginia. (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images) /
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HOUSTON, TEXAS – JANUARY 04: Skylar Thompson #7 of the Kansas State Wildcats celebrates Deuce Vaughn #22’s rushing touchdown during the second half against the LSU Tigers in the TaxAct Texas Bowl at NRG Stadium on January 04, 2022 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)
HOUSTON, TEXAS – JANUARY 04: Skylar Thompson #7 of the Kansas State Wildcats celebrates Deuce Vaughn #22’s rushing touchdown during the second half against the LSU Tigers in the TaxAct Texas Bowl at NRG Stadium on January 04, 2022 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images) /

12. Kansas State

What makes Kansas State the most unlikely team to leave the Big 12? First, the Wildcats have deep ties to their neighboring competitors — they are founding members of the original “Big 6” from 1928, along with Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri, and Iowa State.

The other reason is that the Wildcats have been solid, but not spectacular, as a football and men’s basketball program in the Big 12. There’s not a lot of value added for a potential new mega conference, but Kansas State isn’t a league doormat, either.

11. TCU

The Horned Frogs seem unlikely to jump ship from the Big 12 because of what the conference has meant to the Horned Frogs: it’s given TCU the chance to shine on the national stage in ways that the Mountain West could not.

In the decade between 2008 and 2017, TCU finished in the AP Top 10 in six separate seasons. Three of those six occasions were as Big 12 members after the Horned Frogs joined the league in 2012. With the stability of the Gary Patterson era now gone and mediocrity having been the norm in the past few years, you have to wonder if the Frogs can reach elite status again.

10. Texas Tech

The Red Raiders have close ties in leadership and recent history with schools like Kansas State and Oklahoma State. Being located way out in West Texas, the Red Raiders aren’t a super attractive target for another league to swoop in and grab them — even if they were considered a viable option for a growth-minded Pac-12 a decade ago (a lifetime ago in terms of conference realignment).

Texas Tech hasn’t reached the nine-win mark in a season since Mike Leach left town in 2009. Five straight losing seasons led up to a 7-6 campaign in 2021, and financial support is clearly there, but will better results now come on the football field?

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