The decision the CFP committee can’t afford to get wrong

Upon the conclusion of the 2022 NCAA football regular season, it may not be too difficult to predict the top four in the College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings. But there is still one interesting decision the committee may not be able to afford to get wrong this week.

There are just two more scheduled releases of the CFP rankings before the field of four is officially set: one this Tuesday night before the conference title games, and one next Sunday afternoon to formally set the semifinal matchups.

Following Saturday’s chaos, the top four in the upcoming rankings seem fairly obvious. The Georgia Bulldogs should retain their spot as the No. 1 team following a win over their in-state rival Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, while the Michigan Wolverines are poised to move from No. 3 to No. 2 after upsetting the Ohio State Buckeyes in Columbus.

The TCU Horned Frogs are poised to move up to No. 3 after a blowout win over the Iowa State Cyclones, capping off a perfect season in the Big 12, and the USC Trojans are poised to move up to No. 4 after a statement win over the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.

While it may appear that Georgia (12-0) and Michigan (12-0) will get in whether they win their respective conference championship games or not, things are far less certain for TCU (12-0) and USC (11-1).

Should one of those two teams lose, that could potentially give another team the opportunity to move up.

More than likely, the next two teams in the College Football Playoff rankings will be Ohio State (11-1) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (10-2), and nobody else below them is going to win their way in. The three-loss LSU Tigers, Kansas State Wildcats, and Utah Utes are out. The four-loss Purdue Boilermakers are out, and a multi-loss ACC champion is also out.

So the big question is which team, Ohio State or Alabama, is ranked higher, and this is a question that the committee can’t afford to get wrong this week.

Why? Because neither team is set to play in their conference championship game, meaning that while this week’s CFP rankings aren’t the final CFP rankings, this could effectively be a “final decision” that needs to be made a week early.

Once they decide on No. 5, is there any way to go back?

Let’s say USC loses next week, opening up the door for Ohio State or Alabama to move up to No. 4. Can the  College Football Playoff committee afford to switch those two teams after neither one played, thus allowing one to jump from No. 6 to No. 4 while the other stays at No. 5?

There’s always a chance something changes in terms of common opponents and strength of schedule, allowing an unexpected leapfrog of one idle team over another. Does a surprise Michigan loss to Purdue open the door for Alabama? The Wolverines surely wouldn’t drop below Ohio State, but what if Ohio State is ranked higher than Alabama?

We’ve seen teams move up without playing in their conference championships and teams miss the CFP after being crowned conference champions. We’ve also seen a team enter their final game ranked No. 3 and drop to No. 6 after a 52-point victory (sorry, TCU fans).

And while we’ve never seen a two-loss team get into the CFP, that doesn’t mean it can’t happen. Georgia was ranked No. 5 as a two-loss non-conference champion in 2018 ahead of Ohio State at No. 6 as a one-loss conference champion.

So who gets No. 5 this week? Is it one-loss Ohio State, which lost by 22 points at home, or is it two-loss Alabama, which lost by three points and one point on the road?

This week’s decision as to which team could have the opportunity to “back in” from No. 5 may not be a decision they can easily go back on.

Of course, the top four could always make things easy by doing what they’re supposed to do and winning this weekend. But if they don’t, the team at No. 5 is going to be hoping that the committee was absolutely sure of their ranking this Tuesday night.