Florida football: Realistic post-spring expectations for 2023

Billy Napier just wrapped up his second spring as head Florida football coach and now he has to try and top what he did in year one.

Year one for Napier wasn’t the most successful as his Gators beat Utah in the home opener and really had the team on the map, but it felt like it was all downhill from there. Florida finished a paltry 6-7 and the fans were uncertain of the program’s direction.

After a somewhat disappointing spring game and the loss of Anthony Richardson, fans are just hoping that the Gators can finish the regular season with a winning record.

The quarterback position is going to be a major question mark with Graham Mertz transferring in from Wisconsin to do battle with Ohio State transfer Jack Miller. Whoever starts (I’m picking Mertz) will have a solid rushing attack behind him and a rather unproven receiving corps to throw to, outside of Ricky Pearsall.

The transfer class was very defense and offensive line-heavy so I’m not worried about the trenches or much about the defensive side of the ball. Both should improve slightly.

The offense worries me.

Realistic post-spring expectations for Florida football

Honestly, the offense is giving me flashbacks to the Florida offenses from around a decade ago that couldn’t seem to get anything going. There are some talented young weapons who are unproven and a quarterback with plenty of starting experience along with Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne in the backfield, but is this a top-half SEC offense? I’m not so sure.

Let’s say Mertz slightly exceeds expectations and throws for 3,000 yards with 20 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, I think the Gators will be a winning team.

If he’s anything less, I don’t expect more than a .500 record.

Looking at the 2023 schedule, the sure wins are McNeese, Charlotte, Vanderbilt, and Missouri. Those are four wins that I think you can surely put in the books. The toss-up games are Tennessee, Kentucky, South Carolina, Arkansas, and Florida State. If they can win 2-3 of those, I think they’ll be in good shape to finish with a 6-6 or 7-5 record. The likely losses are Utah, Georgia, and LSU. If Florida can beat Tennessee, Arkansas, and Florida State at home to preserve that home-field advantage, I can see 7-5.

I think a realistic expectation is 7-5 this season with a shot at 8-4 and a worst-case scenario of 6-6.