The 2025 college football win totals are out, and fans are already debating which teams will rise to the occasion—and which ones will crumble under the pressure. While some programs are being pegged as front-runners, there are always a few teams flying under the radar, ready to exceed expectations.
Whether it’s a favorable schedule, key returning players, or a coaching staff poised to take things to the next level, certain teams are primed to outperform their projected win totals. Let's take a look at who is set up well to exceed their number in 2025.
3 teams that will smash expectations during the 2025 college football season
1. Tennessee Volunteers (9.5)
Have you seen that Tennesee football schedule for 2025? If you haven't you need to take a look. Tennessee opens up the season with Syracuse and even after playing Georgia, the Vols will essentially be staring down a 5-1 record after their first six.
The rest of the way features road trips to Alabama and Kentucky before playing Oklahoma and New Mexico State at home. They close out the year at Florida and then at home against Vanderbilt. Outside of Georgia — and potentially Alabama — Tennessee dodges the vast majority of teams in the top-half of the SEC. They've got Mississippi State, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Oklahoma, all poised to be near the bottom of the conference.
If Josh Heupel doesn't find a way to be 10-2 with this schedule, he never will.
2. Florida Gators (6.5)
The Florida Gators have one of the best quarterbacks in the nation leading their team in 2025 with DJ Lagway set to return under center. As long as Lagway is the quarterback, we've got to believe that Florida is at least going 7-5.
Florida may not have the most favorable schedule, but it should still be manageable enough to get to seven wins. Road trips to Miami, LSU, and Texas A&M combined with games against Texas, Georgia, and Tennessee won't be easy for the Gators, but they were able to get to 7-5 last season, and something tells us they're set up to do it again this year.
3. Clemson Tigers (9.5)
If there is going to be a year for Clemson to get back in the running for a national title, it's this one. Clemson has a tougher schedule than last year — starting the year with LSU and playing teams like Louisville, SMU, Georgia Tech, Florida State, and South Carolina throughout the season — but the Tigers also have the most talent we've seen in quite some time.
Dabo Swinney went and got an elite defensive coordinator in Tom Allen to revamp the defense, and the offense returns four starting offensive linemen, all of its starting wide receivers, and Cade Klubnik at quarterback.
It's not a guarantee, but we like the Tigers' chances to finish at least 7-1 in ACC play, and that would mean they only have to split bookend games against LSU and South Carolina to finish 10-2.