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4 teams that have to win out if they want to make the College Football Playoff

Even in the 12-team playoff era, the margin of error can be slim for some teams

By Frank Sciarroni

Head coach Lane Kiffin of the Mississippi Rebels during the game against the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium on September 07, 2024 in Oxford, Mississippi.
Head coach Lane Kiffin of the Mississippi Rebels during the game against the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium on September 07, 2024 in Oxford, Mississippi. / Justin Ford/GettyImages
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We have reached the midpoint of the college football season, and the first-year 12-team playoff picture is starting to take shape.

In years past, with the four-team format, it was likely that one loss would knock you out of contention, but that is no longer the case. This year, we will see teams with one, two, or maybe even three losses make it in.

Although there is still a lot of football left to be played, there are some teams who are already playing to keep their playoff hopes alive. Here are four teams that need to win out after Week 7 if they want a chance to make the College Football Playoff:

1. Notre Dame. . . . Loss vs NIU. . . (5-1). 443

With many other top teams falling in recent weeks, the Irish do not appear to be in as bad of a spot as they were following that crushing Week 2 loss to Northern Illinois. The problem is their loss is by far the worst of any one-loss team, and an easier schedule does not give them as much of a chance as other teams to pick up quality wins. 

Notre Dame currently sits at No. 12 in the AP poll, which would make them the first team out, but I imagine they would not fall any further than that as long as they keep winning. 

Keep an eye out for where the College Football Playoff committee has the Irish slotted in their first rankings which will be released on November 5th.

. 532. Ole Miss. Losses vs Kentucky, at LSU. 2. . (5-2). . .

The Rebels are coming off of losses in two of their last three after a scorching hot start. With some quality SEC opponents ahead, including a date with the Georgia Bulldogs in Oxford, the Rebels still have a playoff pulse. 

Their QB Jaxson Dart put it best in his postgame press conference following a crushing overtime loss at LSU on Saturday:

. . . . . (5-1). Loss at Texas A&M. 3. Mizzou. 531

Normally one loss against a ranked opponent for an SEC team that was in the top 10 would not be too hurtful. The problem for Missouri is how they lost. 

The Tigers got throttled 41-10 against Texas A&M in a game that was dominated by the Aggies from start to finish. This one defeat has now put Mizzou in a place where they have to win out, including beating Alabama on the road, if they want a chance to make the dance.

Iowa. (4-2). . . 4. . . Losses vs Iowa State, at Ohio State. 483.

Hear me out on this one. Both of Iowa’s losses are against teams currently ranked in the top 10 with No. 9 Iowa State and No. 4 Ohio State. 

That rivalry loss in Week 2 against ISU was one that originally really hurt due to low expectations for the Cyclones coming into the year. With the Cyclones now rolling, that loss does not look as bad.  The Hawkeyes also lost that game on a last-second field goal and held the lead for all but six seconds. 

I’m not saying it's extremely likely but there is a chance if Iowa wins out they could soon find themselves ranked for the first time since Week 2 and work their way into an argument for a Playoff berth.

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