The latest edition of the College Football Playoff Rankings were released on Tuesday night and, with them, there was a lot of conversation about the top.
It's easy to focus on teams like Oregon, Ohio State, Indiana, and Penn State in the Big Ten, or Texas, Alabama, Georgia, and Ole Miss in the SEC, but there's so much more going on than figuring out just which teams from the SEC and Big Ten will lock up at-large bids.
With Notre Dame likely locking down an at-large berth, there may not be an at-large berth even available to teams in the ACC, Big 12, or Group of 5. So, if you're not currently a favorite to make it, you're likely going to need something close to a miracle to happen for you to make it.
As we head into Week 13, here's a look at the teams that still might have a path, but will need a miracle to happen for them to make it to the College Football Playoff.
The Arizona State Sun Devils weren't even ranked a week ago, but now they've got an outside shot at making the College Football Playoff.
It will take a minor miracle, but there's a path for Arizona State to make it to the Big 12 Championship and, as a result, lock up a berth with a win assuming that they're one of the five-higest ranked conference champions, which would most likely be a case in this scenario.
For this to happen, Arizona State would need to win out and finish 10-2. This would include a win over BYU this weekend. If the Sun Devils were to pull off an upset over the Cougars, they'd be in prime position to make it to the Big 12 Championship. They'd also have to likely beat Colorado in the conference title game, so it's not a "given," but Arizona State is still very much alive right now.
Clemson's path to the ACC Championship game is not quite as clear as Arizona State's path to the Big 12. As a matter of fact, it will take a minor miracle for the Tigers to somehow make it to Charlotte.
Clemson finished ACC play with a 7-1 record, but the Tigers will need one of three scenarios to play out to secure a bid to Charlotte and have a chance to play in the conference championship.
Here are the scenarios that get Clemson to the ACC Championship game:
- Miami loses to either Wake Forest or Syracuse
- SMU loses to both Virginia and California
- SMU loses to Virginia, Louisville loses to Pittsburgh, Virginia beats Virginia Tech
These are the only three scenarios that result in Clemson playing for the ACC Championship. Tiger fans still can have a small glimmer of hope for chaos in front of them resulting in an at-large bid, but let's be honest, it's going to be really hard for Clemson to get in, even over a 9-3 SEC team with at-large bids already at a premium.
A little more than an hour's drive for Clemson is the Tigers' in-state rival South Carolina. The Gamecocks are one of the hottest teams in the country and they've vaulted up the polls in the last two weeks.
South Carolina is currently the highest-ranked three-loss team in the College Football Playoff Rankings, and the Gamecocks still have one more chance to make a statement to the CFP committee: A road matchup against Clemson.
Let's assume that Clemson is ranked around No. 15 and South Carolina is No. 16 coming into that game. Is there a chance that the winner of that rivalry matchup might have enough juice to nab the final at-large bid in the College Football Playoff, assuming there is some chaos in front of them? Crazier things have happened.
What if Notre Dame loses and that clears the way for one more at-large bid? Could there be a situation where South Carolina backdoors its way into the playoff? The Gamecocks would have three Top-25 wins and they'd at least be one of the teams being considered by the committee for a final spot.
The Tulane Green Wave have secured a bid in the AAC Championship game, but they'll need some help to wind up in the College Football Playoff.
Tulane will play Army in the AAC Championship and they'll be rooting hard for the Black Knights to beat Notre Dame this coming weekend. Sitting at No. 20, Tulane will need some help to become one of the five highest-ranked conference champions.
What if Army won out and then lost to Tulane? Would that propel the Green Wave past a two-loss Boise State? Most likely not. That's exactly why Tulane needs some help. They need Boise State to lose and they may even need some carnage in the ACC and Big 12 to take place, perhaps featuring a three-loss team winning one of those conferences.
If that happened, could there be enough for Tulane to jump a three-loss conference champion from the ACC or Big 12 for that fifth and final conference championship spot? It stands to reason that the conversation would at least be had.
Iowa State's path to the College Football Playoff involves a backdoor path to the Big 12 Championship.
Iowa State needs to win out — which includes a win over Kansas State — and they would need Colorado to lose to Kansas this weekend. There's also some chaotic scenarios that could propel Iowa State up the Big 12 standings, but ultimately, it all starts with them winning out and have teams above them falter.
Could it be done? Sure, but it would take a miracle.