The 2024 ACC football regular season is already heading into its final stretch, and the race for a spot in the conference championship game is heating up.
After Clemson's stunning loss to Louisville at home in Week 10, an SMU-Miami ACC championship seemed to be a foregone conclusion. However, Georgia Tech had other plans.
Despite some key injuries on the offensive side of the ball, the Yellow Jackets handed Heisman candidate Cam Ward and the Hurricanes their first loss of the season, adding some drama to the conference's championship race.
Now, with just a few weeks left on the schedule, here's what the top of the ACC standings look like:
- SMU: 8-1 (5-0 ACC)
- Clemson: 7-2 (6-1 ACC)
- Miami: 9-1 (5-1 ACC)
- Louisville: 6-3 (4-2 ACC)
- Pittsburgh: 7-2 (3-2 ACC)
- Georgia Tech: 6-4 (4-3 ACC)
After some surprising outcomes over the last couple of weeks, who knows which teams will be able to finish strong and secure a spot in Charlotte on December 7th?
So, let's take a look at some of the different ACC Championship Game scenarios. I'll go team by team and explain what needs to happen for each one to earn a spot in the title game.
SMU Mustangs
- Remaining ACC Games: Boston College, at Virginia, California
- Conference Record: 5-0
As you'd expect, SMU is sitting in the driver's seat with a perfect 5-0 record in conference play. The Mustangs control their own destiny, as they'll be guaranteed a berth in the championship game with wins over BC, UVA, and CAL to close out the season.
What's even better? It seems that SMU can afford to lose one of those games and still make it. That's because their road win against Louisville will more than likely give them the edge over Clemson according to ACC tiebreaker rules.
Head-to-head results don't apply because Clemson and SMU didn't face off in the regular season. So, the next tiebreaker criteria would be their records against common opponents.
If the Mustangs lose to Boston College or California, they would have a 5-0 to 4-1 advantage since they beat Louisville and Clemson didn't.
If SMU loses to Virginia, then we'd have a tie at 4-1. However, the Mustangs are expected to have the upper hand since the next tiebreaker is winning percentage against common opponents based on their finish in the ACC standings.
Louisville is projected to finish higher than Virginia; therefore, SMU would get the spot in the conference championship game.
So, given that the Mustangs are expected to be favored in each of their last three games—and also appear to have a mulligan—I'd say it's a safe bet that the boys in Dallas will be packing their bags for Charlotte in just a couple of weeks.
Chance To Reach 2024 ACC Football Championship Game (according to Playoff Status): 88.0%
Miami Hurricanes
- Remaining ACC Games: Wake Forest, at Syracuse
- Conference Record: 5-1
Despite their loss to Georgia Tech in Week 11, the Miami Hurricanes are still in a great position to earn a spot in the ACC Championship Game.
They'll just need to win at home versus Wake Forest (Nov. 23) and on the road against Syracuse (Nov. 30) to close out the regular season. With these two victories, the Hurricanes will finish 7-1 in conference play and (at worst) tied for second in the ACC standings with Clemson.
In this scenario, the tiebreaker would be based on each team's record against their four common opponents: Florida State, Louisville, Virginia Tech, and Wake Forest. Miami went 4-0, while Clemson finished 3-1 with their Week 10 loss at home to Louisville.
As a result, the Canes would clinch a date with SMU at Bank of America Stadium on December 7th.
It's also possible Miami could finish in a three-way tie for first place if the Mustangs were to drop one of their final three conference games against Boston College, Virginia, or California.
If this were to happen, the tiebreaker would come down to each team's winning percentage against their two common opponents: Florida State and Louisville.
In this scenario, SMU and Miami would advance to the ACC Championship with 2-0 records, while Clemson's loss to Louisville would hold them out once again.
So, while Saturday's upset loss to GT may have ruined their hopes of a perfect season, Miami still controls their own destiny. With just two more wins, the Hurricanes will finish at 11-1 and have a chance to play for an automatic bid (and top 4 seed) in college football's first 12-team playoff.
Chance To Reach 2024 ACC Football Championship Game (according to Playoff Status): 65.0%
Clemson Tigers
- Remaining ACC Games: at Pittsburgh
- Conference Record: 6-1
As I've mentioned a few times already, Clemson's 33-21 loss to Louisville as a double-digit favorite looms large and may very well keep the Tigers out of the ACC Championship Game.
This defeat will more than likely give both Miami and SMU the tiebreaker advantage over Clemson. As a result, Dabo Swinney's squad will need some help if they want a chance to compete for their eighth conference title in the last 10 years.
In addition to winning on the road against Pittsburgh this Saturday (Nov. 16), Clemson will need one of three things to happen:
1. Miami Loses to Wake Forest or Syracuse: The easiest way for Clemson to clinch a spot in the championship is for the Hurricanes to pick up their second conference loss. This would drop Miami to 6-2 in ACC play, while the Tigers would finish at 7-1.
2. SMU Loses 2 out of 3 to BC, UVA, & CAL: Clemson would also secure a top 2 finish in the ACC if the Mustangs drop two of their final three games. In this scenario, SMU would be 6-2 in conference play, while the Tigers would be positioned ahead with a 7-1 record.
3. SMU Loses to UVA, UVA Beats VT, & LOU Loses to STAN & PITT: There's also an unlikely scenario in which Clemson could hold the tiebreaker over SMU. If Virginia manages to knock off SMU at home and Virginia Tech on the road AND Louisville drops its final two ACC games, the 7-1 Tigers would head to Charlotte and the 7-1 Mustangs would be left out. The tiebreaker would go to Clemson because the two teams would have an identical 4-1 record against common opponents, but 5-3 Virginia would finish ahead of 4-4 Louisville in the standings.
Chance To Reach 2024 ACC Football Championship Game (according to Playoff Status): 33.0%
Louisville Cardinals
- Remaining ACC Games: at Stanford, Pittsburgh
- Conference Record: 4-2
After the top three teams (SMU, Miami, and Clemson), Jeff Brohm's Louisville Cardinals have the next best chance to reach the ACC Football Championship Game. The bad news, however, is that it'll take a couple of major upsets for them to secure that spot.
In addition to winning their last two conference games at Stanford (Nov. 16) and at home against Pittsburgh (Nov. 23), here's what the Cards will need to have happen:
1. Clemson Loses to Pittsburgh
2. Miami Loses to Wake Forest OR Syracuse
In this scenario, there'd be a three-way tie for second place with each of the teams finishing at 6-2 in the standings. Although Miami beat Louisville earlier in the season, we can't use head-to-head results for the tiebreaker since the Canes didn't face Clemson this year.
Miami, Louisville, and Clemson also don't have any common opponents, so you'd have to move on to the next tiebreaker criteria: the combined winning percentage of each team's conference opponents.
The Cards will have played all of the other teams currently placed in the top 6 of the ACC Standings (SMU, Clemson, Miami, Pittsburgh, and Georgia Tech). As a result, Louisville would make it back to Charlotte for a second consecutive year and earn a rematch with the Mustangs.
A similar scenario would also play out if SMU were to lose two of their last three games to close out the season. That said, I'd expect the Mustangs to be a double-digit favorite in all three matchups, making it pretty unlikely they'll stumble more than once.
Chance To Reach 2024 ACC Football Championship Game (according to Playoff Status): 7.0%
Pittsburgh Panthers
- Remaining ACC Games: Clemson, at Louisville, at Boston College
- Conference Record: 3-2
After a perfect 7-0 start to the season, Pat Narduzzi and the Pittsburgh Panthers have now suffered back-to-back losses against SMU and Virginia.
Despite their underwhelming performances in recent weeks, Pittsburgh still has a path to the 2024 ACC Football Championship Game.
Of course, for this to happen, the Panthers will need to finish the season with three straight victories at home against Clemson (Nov. 16) and on the road against Louisville (Nov. 23) and Boston College (Nov. 30). Easier said than done, right?
On top of that, Pittsburgh will need one of two things to happen:
1. Miami Loses to Wake Forest OR Syracuse: In this scenario, we'd have a three-way tie for second place with Pittsburgh, Miami, and Clemson all finishing at 6-2 in conference play. Head-to-head results wouldn't come into play since Miami didn't play either of the two teams. Eventually, the tiebreaker would come down to the combined winning percentage of conference opponents. Pittsburgh would likely have the advantage since they faced the ACC's first-place team (SMU) and avoided the conference's bottom feeders (Florida State, Stanford, etc.).
2. SMU Loses to UVA AND BC or CAL: In this scenario, there'd be another three-way tie for second; SMU, Pittsburgh, and Clemson would all finish at 6-2 in ACC play. Head-to-head results wouldn't be used for the tiebreaker since SMU and Clemson didn't face off this season. Record against common opponents (Louisville and Virginia) also wouldn't work since everyone finished 1-1. Ultimately, the tiebreaker would once again come down to the combined winning percentage of their conference opponents. The Panthers would likely have the advantage, and they'd make it back to Charlotte for the first time since 2021.
Chance To Reach 2024 ACC Football Championship Game (according to Playoff Status): 7.0%
Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, & Other 3-Loss ACC Teams
Each of the ACC's three-loss teams is still mathematically alive as well.
This means eight other squads (Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Duke, Syracuse, Virginia, North Carolina, Wake Forest, and Boston College) still have an outside shot at securing a spot in the conference championship game.
However, according to the latest ACC Football Championship Odds, there's just a 500/1 chance (0.2% implied probability) that any of these three-loss teams will actually make it to Charlotte in December.
While it's technically possible, they'd need a pretty wild series of upsets and a lot of tiebreaker luck to get there.
That said, in the past two weeks alone, three ACC teams—Miami, Clemson, and Pittsburgh—have suffered their first conference loss. Two of these defeats were especially surprising, as the undefeated teams were favored by more than a touchdown heading into the game.
So, who knows how the rest of the season will shake out? Another upset or two could potentially blow the ACC Championship Race wide open. If you're a fan of a three-loss team still in the hunt, just sit back and cheer for some chaos in the coming weeks.
Chance To Reach 2024 ACC Football Championship Game (according to Playoff Status): All <1.0%