Just like everyone expected at the start of the season, Miami and Indiana are playing for the national championship. It’s the long-awaited return of one powerhouse program and the unlikely emergence of another, and hopefully, it’ll be a great game on Monday night at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.
But with the Indiana Hoosiers, there haven’t been many great games. Their Big Ten slugfest with Ohio State feels like ages ago after a 38-3 drubbing of Alabama at the Rose Bowl and a 56-22 Peach Bowl pantsing of Oregon. Frankly, I think the Hoosiers might do it again, and that’s where we’ll start with my three best bets for Monday night’s national championship game.
All listed betting odds are subject to change
1. Indiana -8.5 (-105) vs. Miami
If you’re looking at yearlong power rankings, this might seem like a line that’s been inflated by Indiana’s recent run of dominance. And yes, Indiana played Ohio State incredibly close, winning a game it probably shouldn’t have. Penn State and Iowa pushed the Hoosiers, too. And yes, Oregon’s early turnovers essentially spotted Indiana 14 points. I don’t care. I’m not betting against this team, their coach, and their quarterback. I can’t do it.
Indiana isn’t just beating teams right now, it is steamrolling them. The Hoosiers are dominant on both lines of scrimmage, have three elite wide receivers, and the Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback. I think there is a world where Miami’s pass rush causes problems for Mendoza and keeps this game close. But Indiana, even without Rueben Bain or Akheen Mesidor, is just as good at getting after the quarterback, and Mendoza tends to handle those muddy pockets much better than Carson Beck.
Beck, also, has struggled mightily to push the ball downfield in the CFP, and if you can’t stress Indiana vertically, it allows defensive coordinator Bryant Haines to play his base defense with three linebackers on the field who fit the run incredibly well, and to add bodies to the pass rush with a single-high safety. That’s exactly what I expect. If Beck can hit some deep shots, we have a game. If not, move out of the way because the Hoosiers are barrelling down the tracks.
2. Indiana 1st half team total OVER 14.5 (+134)
Miami has suffered some injuries in its secondary. Now the Canes will be a bit closer to full strength in that department than initially anticipated, with OJ Frederique “good to go” and Damari Brown day-to-day with a chance to play. Regardless, Xavier Lucas will be out for sure in the first half as he serves the rest of his targeting suspension. It’s a terrible rule for him to be suspended, but we can take advantage of it and bet on the Indiana offense to get off to a hot start.
Indiana’s wide receivers are dominant, especially in contested catch situations. So the absence of the 6-foot-2 Lucas at cornerback will be significant. Expect some big plays from Elijah Sarratt, Charlie Becker, and Omar Cooper Jr. in the first half to help the Hoosiers get three scores.
3. Carson Beck UNDER 0.5 rush yards (-110)
We’re playing a side, a team total, and now we have my favorite player prop. Let’s remember, sacks count against a player’s rushing total, and the Indiana defense is known to get after a quarterback every once in a while, ranking 13th in the country in sacks per game coming in.
Beck, though he has showcased more rushing ability in the CFP, also has an alarming trend that goes in favor of this bet.
Beck has thrown just one interception over Miami’s last six games. There has been a conscious effort from him and offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson to be more careful with the football, and that’s a departure from his default playing style. Beck arrived at Miami with a turnover-prone reputation, and that’s because he’s always been aggressive under pressure, staring down the barrel and firing over the middle into high traffic areas.
His transformation has led him to turn down more of the throws, to hold onto the ball longer, and subsequently, to take more sacks. Over the first eight games of the season, Beck’s pressure-to-sack rate was 8.1 percent, but he threw nine interceptions. Since then, on Miami’s six-game win streak, Beck has thrown only one pick, but his pressure-to-sack rate has climbed to 26.1 percent.
That’ll be too much sack yardage to overcome.
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