The coaching carousel is moving at a truly absurd rate thus far as we already have 11 FBS Head Coaching jobs open and we're only through 8 weeks of the season. We've already seen two top tier jobs open up in Penn State and Florida which could only grow over the next few weeks as Florida State, Wisconsin, Auburn, LSU, and others all could trend toward a place where they make a change.
This coaching cycle is set to be one of the craziest we've seen in a long time as the elite jobs are going to lead to a domino effect across the sport. The cycle this year's may resemble the most is the 2021 cycle where Lincoln Riley, Brian Kelly, and Mario Cristobal sent shockwaves across the sport. Ahead of the 2025 coaching cycle, ADs should look at the results from 4 years ago and proceed with caution.
Revisiting the 2021-22 Coaching Carousel: The big names don't always pan out
The pivots were greater than the big name hirings
The biggest and most shocking news came when Lincoln Riley was hired away from Oklahoma by USC. Riley took the Sooners to the College Football Playoff in 3 of his 5 seasons and leaving one top job for another was truly shocking. The Trojans went all in on Lincoln Riley hoping that he'd bring USC back to their glory, but they're still waiting. After a promising 1st season the results have only gotten worse the past two seasons which has pressure mounting on Riley as he hasn't lived up to the investment.
Never in a million years did Oklahoma think it was going to have to replace it's young star head coach as he left for another job in College Football as the NFL always seemed like more of a threat. Oklahoma pivoted and hired Clemson DC Brent Venables who had be a top candidate for several cycles. Like Lincoln Riley, the results for Venables have been underwhelming and his performance this season will end up determining just how much longer he lasts in Norman.
After Ed Orgeron made it clear that he was never going to return to the heights he reached in 2019, the LSU Tigers had to go out and make a splash. In a stunning move, the Tigers were able to steal away Brian Kelly from Notre Dame in a move no one saw coming. Kelly stated he made the move to win Championships likely preferring the recruiting advantages at LSU over the stricter rules at Notre Dame.
When Brian Kelly won the SEC West in his first season at LSU, it looked like the Tigers hit a home run with the hiring. Fast forward to the middle of year four and the LSU fans feel like they were duped as they'll likely miss the College Football Playoff for the 4th season in a row. The massive contract LSU had to give Kelly to lure him away from South Bend is now an anchor as LSU is stuck either paying an insane buyout or hoping he eventually figures it out.
The Tigers took the big swing, but if you asked the fanbase, 90% of them would part ways with Kelly if it was up to them. Where LSU goes now will be fascinating to watch as the Tigers parting ways with Kelly would be a massive financial commitment before they even hire their next head coach.
LSU hiring away Brian Kelly actually ended up being one of the best things that could've happened to Notre Dame. Marcus Freeman was going to be a top candidate for every job that opened up based on what he had done with Notre Dame's defense and his ability as a recruiter. The Irish ended up getting a younger Head Coach who's a far better fit in this NIL era and he's now the coach everyone wants to call when their school needs a head coach.
After the Miami Hurricanes' miserable seasons with Manny Diaz, they turned to a former will result in big wins and accolades as the Canes have the most talented team in the ACC, but they also wasted the best quarterback in the Country in Cam Ward.
Losing Mario Cristobal to Miami proved to be a blessing in disguise for Oregon as the Ducks landed an incredible young coach in Dan Lanning. The Ducks have already made the College Football Playoff and in the NIL and revenue sharing era, there may not be a more appealing job than Oregon with the resources they have.
Good ideas, terrible results
The Florida Gators needed to land a coach that could recruit at a high enough level after firing Dan Mullen. Billy Napier was the pick the team made and on Sunday they brought his tenure to an end as it never worked out quite like the Gators envisioned. The next hire for Florida has to be the opposite of what Napier was as this program desperately needs to hire a big name to get back into contention in this Playoff era.
Justin Fuente started strong at Virginia Tech and faded quickly leading to Hokies trying to find their next Frank Beamer once again. The Hokies turned to Penn State DC Brent Pry who was one of the best assistants on the market. Pry never truly gave the Hokies a ton to be excited about as his best season came in Year 2 when he finished 7-6 before going 6-7 and then getting fired 3 games into his 4th season.
It was fun while it lasted
The Washington Huskies made one of the best hiring's of the cycle going to Fresno State to land Kalen DeBoer. In his two seasons at Washington, DeBoer went 25-3 with a 16-2 record in Pac 12 play with a run to the National Championship Game in Year 2. The Huskies simply hired too well as Kalen DeBoer was the call Alabama made when they needed to replace Nick Saban.
Just like the Washington Huskies, Duke outkicked it's coverage hiring Texas A&M DC Mike Elko. In his two seasons at Duke, Elko led the Blue Devils to a 16-9 record while going 9-7 in league play. Elko's quick turnaround of Duke was so impressive that the Aggies brought Elko back when they fired Jimbo Fisher and Texas A&M is now one of the best teams in the Country.
Troy made arguably the best hiring of the cycle hiring Kentucky Co-DC Jon Sumrall to fill the role. In his two seasons at Troy, Sumrall went an incredible 23-4 with a 14-2 record in the American. Sumrall has since moved to Tulane where he's remained one of the best coaches, setting himself up for another big move this offseason.
Who fared better with an In-State swing?
Sonny Dykes shockingly left SMU at the end of the 2021 season agreeing to become the head coach of the TCU Horned Frogs. When Dykes took the team all the way to the National Championship Game in Year one it looked like a stellar hire. Dykes and TCU have since cooled down, but remain one of the best teams in the Big 12.
Sonny Dykes' replacement Rhett Lashlee has taken what Dykes built and kept the ball rolling. The Mustangs won their final conference championship in the American before taking SMU to the ACC Championship and College Football Playoff after taking the jump. In this NIL and Revenue Sharing era, SMU may be the better job and Rhett Lashlee may just be the better coach.
Aging better... for now
Joey McGuire didn't have the best start to his career as the Red Raiders finished middle of the pack in his first 3 seasons. The good news for Joey McGuire is the fact that Texas Tech is all-in like some of the Nation's top teams on the NIL front giving McGuire a talent advantage in almost every game he plays.
After a rough start to his tenure at Virginia, Tony Elliott has things trending in the right direction now that the program is fully his. The Cavaliers are 6-1 this season ranking 16th in the Country with a great chance to win the ACC and make the College Football Playoff which is all Virginia could've asked for.