Sure, both teams are locked into a top-four seed and a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff, but a Conference Championship Game between the No. 1 and 2 teams in the country should be a bigger deal. Yet, Lane Kiffin stole the headlines, Penn State became a punchline, and Jared Curtis gave us an exciting signing day. Now, with all of that (except for Penn State’s flailing pursuit of a head coach) behind us, it’s time to lock in.
No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 Indiana are playing for the Big Ten title game on Saturday night to cap off a Conference Championship Week that can bring some serious chaos, and even land two Group of Six teams in the 12-team CFP field. It’ll be a fantastic two-day affair made even better by closing out the year on a best bets hot streak. Let’s keep the good vibes from last week’s 5-0 rolling as we crown champions across college football.
All listed betting odds are subject to change
1. UNLV vs. Boise State team total OVER 32.5 (-113)
Boise State doesn’t have Ashton Jeanty anymore, so the run game has fallen off considerably. Yet, the last time these teams played, a 56-31 Boise State win, the Broncos rushed for 294 yards and averaged 8.9 yards per carry.
UNLV’s run defense ranks 136th over 136 FBS teams in EPA/carry. It’s been bad all season and isn’t getting fixed by Friday night. I see a shootout on the Smurf Turf and plenty of points for Boise State, especially with Maddux Madsen expected to return from injury.
2. Kennesaw State vs. Jacksonville State +2.5 (-106)
Rematches in conference title games are always interesting, and we have quite a few this weekend. Will it play out the same way it did last time, or are we in for a twist? Well, Vegas seems to think that less than a month after Jacksonville State’s 35-26 win over Kennesaw State, the Owls are going to get revenge on Friday night. I don’t agree.
Jacksonville State’s rushing offense is one of the more efficient in the country, at 0.11 EPA/carry, and against a Kennesaw defense that ranks 111th in defensive EPA/carry, the Gamecocks rushed for 252 total yards. They were outgained by Kennesaw, which finished with 579 total yards and three costly interceptions that led to 14 Jacksonville State points.
Maybe, without any turnovers, Kennesaw will roll, but with a volatile offense that’s outside the top 100 in success rate this season, I wouldn’t bet on it. I think Jacksonville State wins outright, but I’ll take the 2.5 here.
3. BYU vs. Texas Tech -12.5 (-110)
Texas Tech completely manhandled BYU the last time these teams matched up, yet only had a 29-7 win to show for it. The Red Raiders kicked field goals from the BYU 29, the BYU 8, the BYU 21, the BYU 11, and the BYU 16-yard line. That’s mostly par for the course for an offense that ranks 89th in the country in red zone touchdown percentage, but it kept a game that could’ve gotten out of hand, much closer.
Sometimes football is simple, and BYU simply cannot block Texas Tech’s defensive line. LJ Martin ran for just 35 yards in the last matchup while BYU managed a 31 percent success rate for the game. With Behren Morton healthy, Texas Tech is at least two touchdowns better than every team in the Big 12, and a big win on Saturday could lock up a top-four seed and a first-round bye in the CFP.
4. Alabama 1st half team total OVER 10.5 (+105) vs. Georgia
Georgia has mostly fixed its first-half woes since the Bulldogs were trailing nearly every game at halftime, including their 24-21 loss to Alabama in Week 5. However, this bet is less fading Kirby Smart’s defense and more backing Kalen DeBoer’s offense, especially in big games.
For the season, Alabama ranks 13th in first-half points per game, and scored all 24 of its points against Georgia in the first half. When big games come around, like that matchup in Week 5, last year’s Georgia/Alabama clash, or the 2023 Pac-12 Championship against Oregon, DeBoer always comes out throwing haymakers. I have faith in him and Ryan Grubb to have a game plan to put up points on Georgia early, and think Smart and Glenn Schumman will find a counter at halftime.
5. Indiana vs. Ohio State -4 (-110)
I’ve been pretty all-in on this Ohio State team as the best in the country all season, and not taking anything away from Indiana, the Buckeyes might be a touchdown better than any other team in college football. They’ve been big favorites all year, and despite playing with one of the slowest paces in the country, are 10-1-1 against the spread.
As for the specific matchup, Fernando Mendoza has the arm to make every throw on the field, but in an RPO-heavy and play-action-heavy offense, he loves to attack the middle of the field. Between the numbers and over 10 yards downfield, he’s 32-for-44 for 802 yards (18.2 ypa) with 11 touchdowns to 2 interceptions. You just can’t do that against Ohio State with Caleb Downs patrolling the middle of the field. I think the Indiana offense sputters, and Ohio State wins handily.
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