The holidays are here, and I’m not talking about Thanksgiving. While you’re spending the day before Thanksgiving cooking up appetizers and baking a pie or two, I’m cooking up a few best bets to celebrate Rivalry Week, one of this country’s greatest traditions.
This time of year is all about expressing our gratitude for friends and family, but that all ends at the stroke of midnight. Thursday is for love. Friday and Saturday are for hate.
So, let’s get into the action with five best bets for the final full slate of the season.
All listed betting odds are subject to change
1. Iowa -6.5 (-106) vs. Nebraska
Nebraska’s defensive line was raided in the transfer portal last offseason, and Matt Rhule is still feeling the repercussions. The Huskers just aren’t good in the trenches, and practically every time they have faced a team with upper-echelon line play, it has not gone well. Nebraska is 124th in defensive EPA/rush and 125th in defensive success rate against the run. That’s not a recipe to beat Iowa.
Last week, Penn State pushed Nebraska around for an impressive 0.28 EPA/rush with a 55 percent success rate overall, and because defensive coordinator John Butler had to load up to stop Kaytron Allen, Ethan Grunkemeyer went 5-for-6 for 112 yards and a touchdown off play action. Mark Gronowski is averaging 2.5 more yards per attempt with play-action compared to straight dropbacks.
2. Texas A&M vs. Texas UNDER 51.5 (-110)
The over is 8-2 in Texas A&M’s last 10 games, and each of the last five Aggies games have gone over the total. However, I’m betting that streak comes to an end in this one because, despite playing in some high-scoring games, Texas ranks 91st in pace for the season and is averaging just 60.7 plays per game over its last three.
Additionally, much of the success that opposing offenses have had against Mike Elko’s defense has been on the ground, but the Longhorns are 89th in the country in rushing success rate. Steve Sarkisian will test Texas A&M’s perimeter tackling with screens and short passes, so if the Aggies can prevent those from going for explosives, they should get Arch Manning into third and longs where they can turn up the heat.
3. Miami vs. Pitt team total UNDER 21.5 (-115)
Pitt had a major bounce back against Georgia Tech, roaring out to an early first-half lead and holding the Yellow Jackets off in the second half. Pitt runs the type of blitz-heavy zone defense that could give Carson Beck problems, and if they force three or four turnovers, then I lose this bet, but if Mason Heintschel has to orchestrate long, sustained drives against Miami, the Panthers are in trouble.
Last week, Heintschel was pressured 18 times by Georgia Tech and sacked five times. He’s been pressured over 12 times in six of his seven starts and over 20 times twice. His erratic play in the pocket and long time to throw behind a struggling offensive line invite pressure, and his 22 percent pressure-to-sack rate routinely knocks Pitt off schedule. Now, Heintschel gets to spend a blustery afternoon in Pittsburgh running away from Rueben Bain and Akheem Mesidor.
4. Ohio State -9.5 (-115) vs. Michigan
There’s obvious concern about taking a near double-digit favorite in a rivalry game that it hasn’t won in the past four years, but I’m ignoring the history and taking the clearly better team. Ohio State ranks 1st in offensive efficiency, and it hasn’t even hit the gas yet this season. The Buckeyes rank 117th in plays per game, yet despite playing low-possession games, they are 8-1-1 against the spread.
Do I think it would be wise for Ryan Day to get baited into a rock fight, again? No. But I’d still favor Ohio State in that type of game. Last year, Michigan had Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant on the interior of the defensive line, and once Wink Martindale realized he couldn’t blitz on every play, they led one of the best defenses in the country from midseason to the end. This year’s defense isn’t near that caliber, and without Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate last week, Ohio State got to cosplay as a heavy personnel run-first offense, and even that looked great.
5. Vanderbilt vs. Tennessee 1st half OVER 31.5 (-105)
By net EPA/play, these two defenses rank 128th and 94th in the country. Vanderbilt doesn’t have the corners to stick with Chris Brazzell II, and Tennessee lacks the pass-rushing pop that made its defense so lethal a year ago. This is setting up to be one of the shootouts of the year, and I think the scoring starts early, so I’ll take the first half under and avoid the threat of this thing bogging down in the second half.
Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets and see a full betting record HERE