On Tuesday, the first College Football Playoff Rankings were revealed, and as always, they sparked heated discussions across the sport. The funny thing is, though, not all but many of those arguments will work themselves out in the final four weeks of the season. It’s time for contenders to cement their spot in the 12-team field, and this week the team with the best chance of doing that is the winner of the Big 12’s game of the year in Lubbock.
BYU, led by a true freshman quarterback named Bear, who wears No. 47, is somehow still undefeated, but the Cougars are 10.5-point underdogs to 8-1 Texas Tech. With interest waning in LSU-Alabama and Indiana-Penn State– thanks a lot, Brian Kelly and James Franklin– that game has risen to the top of the marquee. I’ll tell you how to bet it and four others with my five best bets for Week 11 in college football.
All listed betting odds are subject to change
1. Indiana -14.5 (-110) vs Penn State
Penn State hung around in the first half against Ohio State, but that was mostly on the back of an untimely Buckeyes’ fumble that set up the Nittany Lions with a short field. Eventually, Ohio State pulled away and covered a 20.5-point spread in Columbus. Now, Indiana is just over a two-touchdown favorite in Happy Valley.
The Hoosiers and Buckeyes have been statistically similar teams, and Curt Cignetti, unlike Ryan Day, who paces his team throughout the long season, has had the pedal down every chance he gets. Indiana has an average scoring margin of +29.0 points a game. The staff may not admit it, but Penn State has just about quit on the season. Interim head coach Terry Smith didn’t use a single timeout in last week’s loss, and reports out of Happy Valley depict lifeless practices as a team that had national championship expectations plays out the string. Give me the Hoosiers to win big on the road.
2. BYU team total under 20.5 (-105) vs. Texas Tech
BYU true freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier has been pressured on just 28.1 percent of his dropbacks, slotting the Cougars’ offense in the middle of the pack in the Big 12, but Bachmeier’s 5.0 yards per attempt on pressured dropbacks ranks 12th among 15 QBs in the conference, tied with Devon Dampier and Jalon Daniels, and only ahead of Colorado’s Kaidon Salter.
BYU leans heavily on its run game, and with LJ Martin expected to play, that will be the game plan to slow down Texas Tech’s dominant pass rush, but it’s hard to sustain long drives against the Red Raiders because they’re bound to eventually knock you off schedule with a sack or get you in an obvious passing situation where they can unleash David Bailey and Romello Height off the edges.
BYU managed 24 points against Utah, the best pass rush Bachmeier has faced this season, but he was sacked three times, had zero scrambles, and though he completed five of his seven attempts for 49 yards, he wasn’t the type of difference-maker on those plays he’ll need to be against an even better defense.
3. Georgia -9.5 (-110) vs. Mississippi State
Georgia has very real flaws, and though the Dawgs slotted in at No. 5 in the first CFP Rankings, I can’t see this team winning a national championship with the total lack of a pass rush. The inability to heat up opposing quarterbacks has let plenty of SEC competition hang around this season, but I don’t see Mississippi State doing what Florida did last week.
While Mississippi State’s passing offense is more efficient on a per-down basis, the offense relies heavily on the ground game. That passing game efficiency is based almost solely on explosive plays, which Georgia’s defense has done an amazing job of limiting.
The Dawgs are 99th percentile defensively, allowing a 5.5 percent explosive play rate. Mississippi State will struggle to run the ball against a defense that is 11th in EPA/rush, and Kirby Smart will shut down another veer-and-shoot style offense, which he’s intimately familiar with from his yearly battles with Josh Heupel and Tennessee.
4. Oregon -6.5 (-110) vs. Iowa
I’m heavy on the favorites this week, and this one makes me nervous, but I just don’t see Iowa hanging with Oregon for four quarters. Kirk Ferentz will try to drag the Ducks down into the mud, with defensive coordinator Phil Parker relying on shell zone coverages that limit deep shots and force Dante Moore to be patient. That’s the right plan of attack against Oregon, but Moore has proven that he’s willing and able to play that game this season.
Then, there’s the question of how much Iowa can realistically score on Oregon. Mark Gronowski has looked much better since getting fully healthy, but he still relies heavily on his legs to create big plays. That QB-centric run game keeps Iowa on schedule, facing the ninth-shortest average third-down distance in the country at 6.08 yards. Oregon, however, ranks second in defensive early-down EPA/play. The Ducks are disruptive enough to knock Iowa off schedule, and I don’t trust the Hawkeyes’ counters on that side of the ball.
5. Auburn vs. Vanderbilt UNDER 45.5 (-110)
Vanderbilt’s defense has become legitimately troublesome, and after looking completely outclassed by Texas for three quarters last week, it’s starting to look like a fatal flaw for the Commodores’ CFP hopes. However, there is nothing about Auburn’s season that makes me think the Tigers can exploit it.
Interim head coach DJ Durkin, who took over for Hugh Freeze, has simplified things offensively, handing Derrick Nix full play-calling responsibilities, but that doesn’t suddenly give the Tigers a competent quarterback. Ashton Daniels wasn’t an upgrade over Jackson Arnold in his first start against Kentucky last week, and I hardly expect improvement down the stretch.
Still, I think Auburn has a chance to win this game because it can dominate on the other side of the ball. Over the last two weeks, against Missouri and Texas, two of the best defensive lines in the SEC, Diego Pavia has been pressured on 43.8 percent of his dropbacks, and the play-action game has been completely taken away, averaging just 5.8 yards per attempt compared to 8.1 the rest of the season.
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